MM5-HPAC simulation experiments

Summary We evaluate mesoscale model predicted boundary-layer flow and the subsequent HPAC (Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability) dispersion computation. The HPAC software allows for prediction of the effects of surface release of hazardous material into the atmosphere and collateral damage on civilian populations using either observed or numerical weather model data. The advanced mesoscale weather model MM5 was employed in the study. The real-data MM5 model simulations were verified with high-resolution observations from the West Texas Mesonet. MM5 worked well in simulating meteorologically relatively quiescent conditions. We examined the sensitivity of HPAC computations to the MM5 model’s grid resolution, lateral boundary conditions, and input weather data. Results suggest that the MM5-HPAC conjugation can provide useful prediction of airborne transport of hazardous materials near the surface. However, the accuracy of diffusion computations strongly depends on the performance of MM5, which in turn is likely to be a function of weather scenarios. A given state-of-the-art mesoscale model may perform well in some cases but not in others. There is a potential benefit of using several different model winds separately to run HPAC. A composite result of the HPAC runs could give a more comprehensive depiction of the transport of surface hazardous agents.     

The isotopic composition and elemental abundance of lutetium in meteorites and terrestrial samples and the 176Lu cosmochronometer

The isotopic composition of lutetium has been measured in a range of terrestrial and meteoritic materials using solid-source mass spectrometric techniques. The meteoritic and terrestrial isotopic abundances are identical within experimental errors. The absolute ¹⁷⁵Lu/¹⁷⁶Lu ratio as determined in this work is 37.36 ± 0.07 at the 95% confidence level. On the basis of this measurement the atomic weight of lutetium has been calculated to be 174.967 ± 0.002, which is in good agreement with the currently accepted figure of 174.97 ± 0.01.Using the stable isotope dilution technique the abundance of lutetium has been determined in 25 stone, 1 stony-iron and 8 iron meteorites, and in 12 standard rocks, with an accuracy of ±5% at the 95% confidence level. In general, there is good agreement between this work and other published data.The ¹⁷⁶Lu-¹⁷⁶Hf pair has been proposed as an s process nucleocosmochronometer, because of the long half-life of ¹⁷⁶Lu and the unique fact that both are s process isobars. The isotopic and elemental abundances of lutetium as measured in this work have been used with published nuclear data to estimate the mean age of s process nucleosynthesis for this isobaric pair, using the Schramm-Wasserburg formalism. The mean age cannot be accurately determined at the present time because of the lack of 30 keV neutron capture cross-section data for s only process nuclides and an accurate measurement of the branching ratio of ¹⁷⁵Lu + n. However, it is possible to place constraints on the nuclear parameters in this mass region using a reasonable s process chronology based on the decay of ¹⁷⁶Lu.     

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Specifying the mesoscale numerical forecast of heavy showers

Actual surface fields of meteorological variables 1–3 hours before the heavy showers are analyzed in detail for the purpose of their specification with WRF-ARW model. The complex of hygrothermodynamic characteristics needed for this purpose is discovered. The detailed satellite, radar, and synoptic data are also considered.     

A Holocene record of climate change,fire ecology and human activity from montane Flat Top Bog,Maui

A sediment core from a high-elevation bog on Maui in the Hawaiian Islands contains evidence for drier conditions between 9.4–5.8 kyr BP, followed by a wetter interval between 5.8–2.2 kyr BP, and a variable late Holocene. These precipitation changes may be a reflection of vertical displacements of the upper boundary of the mid-Pacific Trade Wind Inversion (TWI) cloud layer. Fires, probably volcanically ignited, occurred in the forests prior to human arrival. Polynesian activity in this high-elevation, remote site was apparently limited, with no pollen, charcoal, or sedimentological evidence for local anthropogenic disturbance. After European contact, grass fires increased and introduced plant species invaded the site. Values for Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in sediments throughout the Holocene indicate low trace-metal deposition from atmospheric particulates at the site, even in the twentieth century.This paper is one of a series of papers guest edited by Dr. Mark Brenner on tropical paleolimnology     

Limnic Responses to Increased Effective Humidity during the 8200 cal. yr BP Cooling Event in Southern Sweden

Highly resolved sediment stratigraphic and stable isotope records from a lake in south-central Sweden give evidence of relatively humid summers during the wide-spread cold event at c. 8200 cal. BP. A transient lake-level rise led to increased catchment erosion followed by enhanced phytoplankton production and disturbance of the Chara-dominated algal community. An associated increase in the deposition of organic material resulted in hypolimnetic oxygen deficit and methane formation as inferred from elevated sulphur content of the sediments and strong depletion in ¹³C of bulk organic material. In combination with dry and cold winter conditions as revealed by other proxy records, these data suggest the development of a strongly seasonal climate in northwestern Europe in response to altered atmospheric circulation at this stage. Enhanced zonal circulation with frequent cyclonic activity and increased effective humidity probably characterized the summer climate of southern and central Scandinavia, consistent with conditions inferred for continental Europe. In contrast, the winter climate was dominated by blocking high-pressure circulation, giving rise to cold and dry conditions.