Additive versus multiplicative models in ecologic regression

Much research in environmental epidemiology relies on aggregate-level information on exposure to potentially toxic substances and on relevant covariates. We compare the use of additive (linear) and multiplicative (log-linear) regression models for the analysis of such data. We illustrate how both additive and multiplicative models can be fit to aggregate-level data sets in which disease incidence is the dependent variable, and contrast these results with similar models fitted to individual-level data. We find (1) that for aggregate-level data, multiplicative models are more likely than additive models to introduce bias into the estimation of rates, an effect not found with individual-level data; and (2) that under many circumstances multiplicative models reduce the precision of the estimates, an effect also not found in individual-level models. For both additive and multiplicative models of aggregate-level data, we find that, in the presence of covariates, narrow confidence interval are obtained only when two or more antecedent factors are strongly related to the measured covariate and/or the exposure of primary substantive interest. We conclude that the equivalency of fitting additive versus multiplicative models in studies with individual-level binary data does not carry over to studies that analyze aggregate-level information. For aggregate data, we strongly recommend use of additive models. Supported by Grant #1 U19 EH000102 from the National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.     

Spatial and temporal structure of the Denmark Strait Overflow revealed by acoustic observations

In spite of the fundamental role the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays for global climate stability, no direct current measurement of the Denmark Strait Overflow, which is the densest part of the AMOC, has been available until recently that resolve the cross-stream structure at the sill for long periods. Since 1999, an array of bottom-mounted acoustic instruments measuring current velocity and bottom-to-surface acoustic travel times was deployed at the sill. Here, the optimization of the array configuration based on a numerical overflow model is discussed. The simulation proves that more than 80% of the dense water transport variability is captured by two to three acoustic current profilers (ADCPs). The results are compared with time series from ADCPs and Inverted Echo Sounders deployed from 1999 to 2003, confirming that the dense overflow plume can be reliably measured by bottom-mounted instruments and that the overflow is largely geostrophically balanced at the sill.     

Tectonic Evolution and Hydrogeological Characteristics of the Khanaser Valley,Northern Syria,Derived from the Interpretation of Vertical Electrical Soundings

The Khanaser Valley was geoelectrically thoroughly surveyed through a grid which consisted of twelve VES profiles. The tectonically-oriented Pichgin and Habibullaev method was enhanced to be applicable in areas of rugged relief and topography. The enhanced profiles were tectonically interpreted and subsurface structures within the Khanaser Valley were delineated. Accordingly, a tectonic evolutional scenario of the valley was established and its hydrogeological characteristics were derived. An approach for groundwater exploration in areas of prominent relief and topography in dry areas such as the Khanaser Valley was established and its validity was estimated.     

Integral inversion of SST data of type GRACE

Satellite missions CHAMP and GRACE dedicated to global mapping of the Earth’s gravity field yield accurate satellite-to-satellite tracking (SST) data used for recovery of global geopotential models usually in a form of a finite set of Stokes’s coefficients. The US-German Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) yields SST data in both the high-low and low-low mode. Observed satellite positions and changes in the intersatellite range can be inverted through the Newtonian equation of motion into values of the unknown geopotential. The geopotential is usually approximated in observation equations by a truncated harmonic series with unknown coefficients. An alternative approach based on integral inversion of the SST data of type GRACE into discrete values of the geopotential at a geocentric sphere is discussed in this article. In this approach, observation equations have a form of Green’s surface integrals with scalar-valued integral kernels. Despite their higher complexity, the kernel functions exhibit features typical for other integral kernels used in geodesy for inversion of gravity field data. The two approaches are discussed and compared based on their relative advantages and intended applications. The combination of heterogeneous gravity data through integral equations is also outlined in the article. panovak@kma.zcu.cz     

Analysis of Physical and Chemical Parameters for Discrimination of Water Origin in a Hydroelectric Reservoir

Seventeen physical and chemical parameters were obtained from a hydroelectric reservoir located in a tropical region in the south of Brazil. Multivariate Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Group Analysis (HGA) were used to identify the parameters discriminating the origin of water from the Tibagi and the Primeiro de Maio River, after it has passed the mixing region. The study was conducted during the dry and rainy seasons in July 2002 and February 2003 at three depths and three sampling sites located 0, 5, and 10 km away from the mixing region. The statistical methods showed to be appropriate for identifying the contribution of each tributary in the water mixing site of a complex water system. The most important discriminating parameter was the absorbance relation A(253 nm)/A(203 nm), followed by the concentrations of Fe(III), Mn(III), and Ni(II). An anthropogenic interference was found in the reservoir due to high Ni(II) and orthophosphate concentrations caused by a nearby town sewage discharge. The interference was more important during the dry periods due to the lower dispersion of the pollutants. Urgent initiatives should be taken from the state government to build treatment stations for the wastewater of the small cities around the Capivara hydroelectric reservoir to prevent the drinking water quality from deteriorating.     

Analysis of the weightiness of site effects on reinforced concrete (RC) building seismic behaviour: The Adra town example (SE Spain)

The damage distribution in Adra town (south‐eastern Spain) during the 1993 and 1994 Adra earthquakes (5.0 magnitude), that reached a maximum intensity degree of VII (European Macroseismic Scale (EMS scale)), was concentrated mainly in the south‐east zone of the town and the most relevant damage occurred in reinforced concrete (RC) buildings with four or five storeys. In order to evaluate the influence of ground condition on RC building behaviour, geological, geomorphological and geophysical surveys were carried out, and a detailed map of ground surface structure was obtained. Short‐period microtremor observations were performed in 160 sites on a 100m × 100m dimension grid and Nakamura's method was applied in order to determine a distribution map of soil predominant periods. Shorter predominant periods (0.1–0.3 s) were found in mountainous and neighbouring zones and larger periods (greater than 0.5 s) in thicker Holocene alluvial fans. A relationship T = (0.049 ± 0.001)N, where T is the natural period of swaying motion and N is the number of storeys, has been empirically obtained by using microtremor measurements at the top of 38 RC buildings (ranging from 2 to 9 storeys). 1‐D simulation of strong motion on different soil conditions and for several typical RC buildings were computed, using the acceleration record in Adra town of the 1993 earthquake. It is noteworthy that all the aforementioned results show the influence of site effects in the degree and distribution of observed building damage. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytical models of contaminant transport in coastal aquifers

The Henry formulation, which couples subsurface flow and salt transport via a variable-density flow formulation, can be used to evaluate the extent of sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers. The coupling gives rise to nontrivial flow patterns that are very different from those observed in inland aquifers. We investigate the influence of these flow patterns on the transport of conservative contaminants in a coastal aquifer. The flow is characterized by two dimensionless parameters: the Péclet number, which compares the relative effects of advective and dispersive transport mechanisms, and a coupling parameter, which describes the importance of the salt water boundary on the flow. We focus our attention on two regimes – low and intermediate Péclet number flows. Two transport scenarios are solved analytically by means of a perturbation analysis. The first, a natural attenuation scenario, describes the flushing of a contaminant from a coastal aquifer by clean fresh water, while the second, a contaminant spill scenario, considers an isolated point source.     

Modeling of Stress Changes at Mayon Volcano,Philippines

In this paper, we analyze the stress change associated with the inverted volcanic source models at Mayon volcano, Philippines, where there are gravity changes without significant deformation after the 1993 eruption. We detail the applicable data and the associated inversion techniques and models prior to calculating the appropriate stress changes. It is determined that the stress change associated with the central magmatic source produces compressional stress changes at a secondary source to the northwest, prompting a change in the local water storage in the underlying fractured rock.     

Prediction of surface horizontal displacements, and gravity and tilt changes caused by filling the Three Gorges Reservoir

 Horizontal displacements, and gravity and tilt changes induced by filling the Three Gorges Reservoir are modeled using elastic loading Green functions. When the water surface reaches its highest level, the effects become maximum on the reservoir banks. The longitudinal and latitudinal components of the horizontal displacements reach −8.2 and 7.7 mm respectively, gravity is increased by up to 3.4 mGal, and the prime vertical and meridian components of the tilt changes are −7.8 and −17.5 arcseconds respectively. Accordingly, the filling of the reservoir will influence values observed from global positioning system (GPS), gravimetry and tilt measurements in the area. The results given can be used to provide important corrections for extracting earthquake-related signals from observed data. Received: 19 January 2001 / Accepted: 3 September 2001