中国极地科学数据库系统数据管理子系统的开发——以三层体系结构开发基于Web的数据管理子系统

随着Internet技术的不断发展和完善,新的应用系统体系结构在系统开发、数据存储、数据访问和控制等方面的先进性也在不断地应用到数据库系统的开发和建设中。三层体系结构通过建立中间层应用程序,将原先运行在每个客户端计算机上的应用程序和处理过程转移到中间层执行,并通过网络共享给用户,克服了传统客户端/服务器体系结构在应用系统开发维护、客户端配置调整等方面存在的缺陷。中国极地科学数据库数据管理子系统采用三层体系结构的网络数据库设计思想,开发位于中间层的多种数据库应用程序,充分利用了三层体系结构在开发、维护及使用等诸多方面的先进性,为极地科学数据库的有效管理提供了一种高效、直观的手段,同时利用Internet这一网络工具,为不同专业学科数据的提交、收集、整理、入库和发布提供了更为便捷的途径。     

Sea Level Rise and Its Risk Management

Sea level rise is among the most severe societal consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Significant advance has been achieved in recent years in the study of future sea level rise and its risk management practice: ①Sea level rise is considered as a kind of hazard,its future plausible scenarios and their probabilities are necessary to be predicted and estimated,and the upper limit with very low probability and high consequences should be emphasized. For this purpose,a complete probability distribution framework has been developed to predict the scenarios and probabilities of future sea level rise with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in recent years. ② For a high emissions scenario,it was found that Antarctic Ice Sheet might make a contribution to Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise as high as 78150 cm (mean value 114 cm) by 2100. For the same scenario,the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report gave an Antarctic contribution of only -8+14 cm (mean value 4 cm). ③ Recent studies recommended a revised worst-case (Extreme) GMSL rise scenario of 2.5 m from previous 2.0 m by 2100. It is recognized that GMSL rise will not stop at 2100; rather,it will continue to rise for centuries afterwards,but the degree of uncertainty related to sea level rise will increase. ④ Approaches of combining the upper-bound scenario and a central estimate or mid-range scenario, Adaptation Pathways and robust decision-making are developed to provide a set of long-term planning envelope. These decision-making methods are used widely in coastal risk management related to future sea level rise. Sea level rise and its risk management need to enhance monitoring,analysis and simulation to predict the global,regional and local seal level rise scenarios and the probabilities with different time scales,reduce the estimate uncertainty, assess its upper limits, and enhance decision methods and their application under deep uncertain, in order to meet the needs of climate change adaptation planning,decision-making and long-term risk management in coastal regions.     

水位动态周期性干扰的小波分析

通过对“十五”水位动态干扰调查和分类总结,得到一类受周期性干扰的水位动态曲线。通过对该类动态的水位序列进行小波分解,得到其水位时间序列的不同分解层次的干扰特征;利用小波重构剔除干扰信息,得到水位动态的重构时间序列;通过对多个台站的水位序列进行小波分析,得到该类干扰的典型动态特征。     

高温高压下CO2在水中溶解度实验及理论模型

利用自行研制的高温高压反应釜,在不同温度、压力和矿化度条件下测试CO₂在地层水中的溶解度。实验结果表明:温度一定的条件下,CO₂在水中的溶解度随压力的增加而增加;压力一定的条件下,CO₂在水中溶解度的主要变化趋势为随温度的增加而降低,当温度大于100℃、压力在22 MPa左右时,CO₂在地层水中的溶解度将发生异常,出现低压(小于22 MPa)时随温度的增加而降低,高压(大于22 MPa)时随温度的增加而略微升高;在温度压力都一定的条件下,CO₂在水中的溶解度随矿化度的增加而降低。并且,在新测得的实验数据和已有的实验数据的基础上,通过修正PR-HV状态方程中的参数,建立了一个能够精确计算CO₂在水中溶解度的模型;并将该模型与其他模型对比。对比结果表明,该模型计算精度最高,平均相对误差仅为2.69%。     

Excitation of solar-like oscillations: From PMS to MS stellar models

The amplitude of solar-like oscillations results from a balance between excitation and damping. As in the sun, the excitation is attributed to turbulent motions that stochastically excite thep modes in the uppermost part of the convective zone. We present here a model for the excitation mechanism. Comparisons between modeled amplitudes and helio and stellar seismic constraints are presented and the discrepancies discussed. Finally the possibility and the interest of detecting such stochastically excited modes in pre-main sequence stars are also discussed.     

东日本9.0级大地震激发的地球自由振荡时频分析

利用中国14个台站的DZW型重力仪观测资料,对东日本9.0级大地震激发的地球自由振荡进行时频分析, 展示其二维及三维时频分布特征。对比14个台站的谱图发现,地球自由振荡能量在频率轴的展布很均匀,均可清晰展示频率信息|而在时间轴上存在一些差异,大部分台站展布相近,宜昌台、西昌小庙台、厦门台和深圳台4个台站的展布相对较窄。     

Saturn's gravitational field induced by its equatorially antisymmetric zonal winds

The cloud-level zonal winds of Saturn are marked by a substantial equatorially antisymmetric component with a speed of about 50 m s-1 which, if they are sufficiently deep, can produce measurable odd zonal gravitational coefficients ?J2 k+1, k = 1, 2, 3, 4. This study, based on solutions of the thermal-gravitational wind equation, provides a theoretical basis for interpreting the odd gravitational coefficients of Saturn in terms of its equatorially antisymmetric zonal flow. We adopt a Saturnian model comprising an ice-rock core, a metallic dynamo region and an outer molecular envelope. We use an equatorially antisymmetric zonal flow that is parameterized, confined in the molecular envelope and satisfies the solvability condition required for the thermal-gravitational wind equation. The structure and amplitude of the zonal flow at the cloud level are chosen to be consistent with observations of Saturn.We calculate the odd zonal gravitational coefficients ?J_(2k+1), k = 1, 2, 3, 4 by regarding the depth of the equatorially antisymmetric winds as a parameter. It is found that ?J_3 is-4.197 × 10~(-8) if the zonal winds extend about 13 000 km downward from the cloud tops while it is-0.765 × 10~(-8) if the depth is about 4000 km. The depth/profile of the equatorially antisymmetric zonal winds can eventually be estimated when the high-precision measurements of the Cassini Grand Finale become available.     

Carbon sequestration potential and its eco-service function in the karst area,China

The karst critical zone is an essential component of the carbon (C) pool, constituting the global C cycle. It is referred to as one of the “residual land sink” that remains largely indeterminate. Karst area (2.2×10⁷ km²) comprises 15% of the world’s land area, and karst area comprises 3.44×10⁶ km² of area in China. Due to the complexity of karst structure and its considerable heterogeneity, C sequestration rate estimations contain large inaccuracies, especially in relation to the different methods used in calculations. Therefore, we reevaluated rock weathering-related C sink estimations in China (approximately 4.74 Tg C yr^–1), which we calibrated from previous studies. Additionally, we stipulated that more comprehensive research on rock-soil-biology-atmosphere continuum C migration is essential to better understand C conversion mechanisms based on uncertainty analyses of C sink estimations. Moreover, we stressed that a collective confirmation of chemical methods and simulated models through a combined research effort could at least partially eliminate such uncertainty. Furthermore, integrated C cycling research need a long-term observation of the carbon flux of multi-interfaces. The enhanced capacity of ecosystem C and soil C pools remains an effective way of increasing C sink. Karst ecosystem health and security is crucial to human social development, accordingly, it is critical that we understand thresholds or potential C sink capacities in karst critical zones now and in the future.     

北冰洋海冰/气候系统及其对全球气候的影响

结合前人对北冰洋海冰、气候系统的研究成果和 1 999年 8月在北冰洋对海冰的现场观测 ,本文综述了海冰分布、厚度的变化 ,海冰表面特征、积雪变化及北冰洋天气、气候特征和分区。讨论了北极海冰与南极海冰的差异。文章认为 ,北冰洋与周围地区气候变化趋势的不一致 ,主要是由于夏季在北冰洋海冰与开阔水域的相间分布、海冰漂移、融化吸热 ,均衡了周围大气、海洋温度的变化。     

Rational approximation for estimation of quality <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> factor and phase velocity in linear,viscoelastic, isotropic media

The article presents a numerical inversion method for estimation of quality Q factor and phase velocity in linear, viscoelastic, isotropic media using reconstruction of relaxation spectrum from measured or computed complex velocity or modulus of the medium. Mathematically, the problem is formulated as an inverse problem for reconstruction of relaxation spectrum in the analytic Stieltjes representation of the complex modulus using rational approximation. A rational (Padé) approximation to the relaxation spec trum is derived from a constrained least squares minimization problem with regularization. The recovered stress-strain relaxation spectrum is applied to numerical calculation of frequency-dependent Q factor and frequency-dependent phase velocity for known analytical models of a standard linear viscoelastic solid (Zener) model as well as a nearly constant-Q model which has a continuous spectrum. Numerical results for these analytic models show good agreement between theoretical and predicted values and demonstrate the validity of the algorithm. The proposed method can be used for evaluating relaxation mechanisms in seismic wavefield simulation of viscoelastic media. The constructed lower order Padé approximation can be used for determination of the internal memory variables in time-domain finite difference numerical simulation of viscoelastic wave propagation.