Tsunami impact assessment: development of vulnerability matrix for critical infrastructure and application to Christchurch,New Zealand

Natural Hazards - Tsunamis can have severe impacts on society. In addition to casualties and damage to buildings, they can also damage and disrupt critical infrastructure. To support effective risk...     

Observations of offshore bar decay: Sediment budgets and the role of lower shoreface processes

Long-term, net offshore bar migration is a common occurrence on many multiple-barred beaches. The first stage of the process involves the generation of a longshore bar close to the shoreline that oscillates about a mean position for some time, followed by a stage of net offshore migration across the upper shoreface, and finally a stage of decaying bar form through loss of sediment volume at the outer boundary of the upper shoreface. The phenomenon has been previously documented in the Netherlands, the USA, the Canadian Great Lakes, and in New Zealand, but our present understanding of the morphodynamic processes and sediment transport pathways involved in bar decay is limited. In this paper, long-term, net offshore bar migration is investigated at Vejers Beach, located on the North Sea coast of Denmark where offshore bar migration rates are of the order of 45–55 m a⁻¹. A wave height transformation model confirmed that the decay of the outer bar results in increased wave heights and undertow speeds at the more landward bar potentially causing this bar to speed up its offshore migration. The causes for outer bar decay were investigated through field measurements of sediment transport at the decaying bar and at a position further seaward on the lower shoreface. The measurements showed that a cross-shore transport convergence exists between the bar and the lower shoreface and that the loss of sediment involved in bar decay is associated with a longshore directed transport by non-surf zone processes. At Vejers, and possibly elsewhere, the net offshore migration of bars and the subsequent loss of sand during bar decay is an important part of the beach and shoreface sediment budget.     

Correlations between deep convection and lightning activity on a global scale

Satellite observations of cloud top temperature and lightning flash distribution are used to examine the relationship between deep convection and lightning activity over the tropical regions of the northern and southern hemispheres. In agreement with previous work, the analysis of the results shows that, in the summer of both hemispheres, the lightning activity in continental deep convective storms is more intense than that in marine deep convective storms by a factor of between 7 and 10. Furthermore, it was observed that on average the daily lightning rate per 1°×1° grid cell for the southern hemisphere (SH) is about 20% greater than that of the northern hemisphere (NH), which can be attributed to a larger fractional cover by deep convective clouds in the SH. By using a set of independent indicators, it is shown that deep convection and lightning activity over land are well correlated (with correlation coefficients of 0.8 and 0.6 for NH and SH, respectively). This suggests the capacity for observations to act as a possible method of monitoring continental deep convective clouds, which play a key role in regulating the Earth’s climate. Since lightning can be monitored easily from ground networks and satellites, it could be a useful tool for validating the performance of model convective schemes and for monitoring changes in climate parameters.     

Simulating temporal variability in catchment response using a monthly rainfall–runoff model

Abstract

Temporal variability can result from shifts in climate, or from changes in the runoff response due to land- or water-use changes, and represents a potential source of uncertainty in calibrating hydrological models. Parameter values were determined using Monte Carlo parameter sampling methods for a monthly rainfall–runoff model (Pitman model) for different sub-periods on four catchments, with different types and degrees of temporal variability, in Australia and Africa. For some catchments, parameters were not dependent upon the sub-period used and fell within expected ranges given the relatively high degree of model equifinality. In other catchments, dependencies can be identified that are associated with signals contained within the sub-periods. While the Pitman model is relatively robust in the face of temporal variability, it is concluded that better simulations will always be obtained from calibration data that include signals representing the total variability in climate, land-use change and catchment responses.     

Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales

Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17‐year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year (±0.002 °C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Electrostatic dust transport on Eros: 3-D simulations of pond formation

NEAR-Shoemaker spacecraft images of the surface of the near-Earth Asteroid 433 Eros reveal that more than 200 craters on Eros are partially filled with smooth deposits, termed ponds [Veverka, J., and 32 colleagues, 2001a. Science 292, 484-488]. These ponds appear smooth even at a high resolution of 1.2 cm/pixel and spectral analysis suggests that they may be made up of particles ?50 μm in size [Robinson, M.S., Thomas, P.C., Veverka, J., Murchie, S., Carcish, B., 2001. Nature 413, 396-400; Riner, M.A., Eckart, J.M., Gigilio, J.G., Robinson, M.S., 2006. Lunar Planet. Sci. XXXVII. Abstract 2291]. Coupled with the concentration of ponds at low latitudes, the possible small particle size suggests that these deposits might be related to electrostatic transport of dust near the local terminator [Robinson, M.S., Thomas, P.C., Veverka, J., Murchie, S., Carcish, B., 2001. Nature 413, 396-400]. The work presented here incorporates the precise lighting geometry within a crater at a specified latitude into two models for electrostatic transport of dust grains in order to explore dust deposition and pond formation via this mechanism, particularly as a function of latitude. We find that micrometer-sized dust particles are preferentially transported into craters at latitudes where solar illumination angles are often low. In addition we find that if particles are electrostatically lifted off the surface they are preferentially transported into topographic depressions independent of whether the particles undergo stable levitation. The primary limiting factor for our model is uncertainty concerning the dust launching mechanism. Despite that, and though it does not match the observed north-south asymmetry in pond distribution, our model demonstrates potential for good general agreement between future predictions of pond formation via electrostatic transport of dust and observations of pond locations on the surface of Eros.     

Field observations of nearshore bar formation

The formation of an inner nearshore bar was observed during a high‐energy event at the sandy beach of Vejers, Denmark. The bar accreted in situ during surf zone conditions and the growth of the bar was associated with the development of a trough landward of the bar. Measurements of hydrodynamics and sediment fluxes were obtained from electromagnetic current meters and optical backscatter sensors. These process measurements showed that a divergence in sediment transport occurred at the location of the developing trough, and observed gradients in cross‐shore net sediment flux were consistent with the morphological development. The main cause for the flux gradients were cross‐shore gradients in offshore‐directed mean current (undertow) speed which depended upon local relative wave height and local bed slope. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Sea Empress oil spill (Wales, UK): effects on Common Scoter Melanitta nigra in Carmarthen Bay and status ten years later

Carmarthen Bay, UK, regularly supports internationally important numbers (>16,000) of non-breeding Common Scoters Melanitta nigra. The spill of 72,000 tonnes of crude oil from the Sea Empress in 1996 affected birds both through direct mortality and likely pollution of key food resources. Numbers were greatly reduced following the spill, whilst changes in the distribution of birds within Carmarthen Bay suggested that potentially sub-optimal foraging zones were used. However, ten years after the incident, numbers of Common Scoter were no different to those recorded immediately before the spill. Compared to some other spills, rapid revival is evident. Numbers increased to pre-spill levels within three winters and distributional changes suggested a concurrent return to previously contaminated feeding areas, implying that the ecosystem had regenerated sufficiently to support its top predator. The importance of prolonged, standardised monitoring of bird numbers and distribution as indicators of ecological recovery from environmental damage is emphasised.     

Large Leonid Meteoroids And The Historical Activity Of Comet 55p/Tempel–Tuttle

We interpret the historical activity of comet 55P/Tempel–Tuttle in terms of the observed characteristics of present-day short period comets. In this respect, it is now realized that such comets are liable to undergo significant outburst and mantle loss events at intervals separated by of order a few hundred years. On this basis one might well expect comet 55P/Tempel–Tuttle to have undergone several outbursts since its earliest sighing in 1366. The limited absolute magnitude data available for 55P/Tempel–Tuttle is not inconsistent with the suggestion that the comet underwent outbursts during its 1699 and 1865 perihelion returns. If the outbursts of comet 55P/Tempel–Tuttle are interpreted in terms of mantle loss events then the bright, electrophonic sound producing fireballs reported during the great Leonid meteor storm of 1833 may have been due to the Earth sampling mantle material ejected during the outburst of 1699. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Dendrochronology in Jordan

Dendrochronology is a valuable tool for the study of past climate and increases our knowledge of climate variability beyond the short period covered by instrumental data. Two annual tree-ring width chronologies were developed for northern Jordan (Pinus halepensis and Quercus aegilops), one chronology for Carmel Mountain, Israel (Pinus halepensis), and one chronology for southern Jordan (Juniperus phoenicia). The results of our study show that the northern site chronologies are significantly correlated, but the northern and southern sites are not. A relatively high correlation was shown between October–April precipitation and a Pinus halepensis chronology, and between October–May precipitation and Quercus aegilops, both in the north. October–May precipitation was reconstructed for the time span AD 1600 to 1995 from the Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology. The longest reconstructed drought, defined as consecutive years below a threshold of 80% of the 1946–1995 mean observed October–May precipitation, was 4 years, compared with 3 years for the 1946–95 instrumental data.