Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation

Increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond. Here we examine likely shifts in crop climates in Sub-Saharan Africa under climate change to 2050, and explore the implications for agricultural adaptation, with particular focus on identifying priorities in crop breeding and the conservation of crop genetic resources. We find that for three of Africa's primary cereal crops – maize, millet, and sorghum – expected changes in growing season temperature are considerable and dwarf changes projected for precipitation, with the warmest recent temperatures on average cooler than almost 9 out of 10 expected observations by 2050. For the “novel” crop climates currently unrepresented in each country but likely extant there in 2050, we identify current analogs across the continent. The majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050. Of these countries, 75% will have novel climates with analogs in the current climate of at least five other countries, suggesting that international movement of germplasm will be necessary for adaptation. A more troubling set of countries – largely the hotter Sahelian countries – will have climates with few analogs for any crop. Finally, we identify countries, such as Sudan, Cameroon, and Nigeria, whose current crop areas are analogs to many future climates but that are poorly represented in major genebanks – promising locations in which to focus future genetic resource conservation efforts.     

The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030

Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, we find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In our low-productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10–60% by 2030. The poverty impacts of these price changes depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20–50% in parts of Africa and Asia under these price changes, and falling by significant amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in Asia and Latin America. The potential for such large distributional effects within and across countries emphasizes the importance of looking beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields – or highly aggregated poverty impacts.     

Development and Application of a Method to Identify Salt Marsh Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Wetlands are commonly assessed for ecological condition and biological integrity using a three-tiered framework of landscape-scale assessment, rapid assessment protocols, and intensive biological and physiochemical measurements. However, increased inundation resulting from accelerated sea level rise (SLR) is negatively impacting tidal marsh ecosystem functions for US Northeast coastal wetlands, yet relative vulnerability to this stressor is not incorporated in condition assessments. This article assesses tools available to measure coastal wetland vulnerability to SLR, including measurements made as part of traditional rapid condition assessments (e.g., vegetation communities, soil strength), field and remote sensing-based measurements of elevation, VDatum, and Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) model outputs. A vulnerability metric that incorporates these tools was calibrated and validated using recent rates of marsh vegetation losses (1972–2011) as a surrogate for future vulnerability. The metric includes complementary measures of elevation capital, including the percentage of high vs. low marsh vegetation, Spartina alterniflora height, elevation measurements, and SLAMM outputs that collectively explained 62% of the variability in recent rates of marsh vegetation loss. Stepwise regression revealed that all three elements (elevation, vegetation measures, and SLAMM outputs) explained significant and largely unique components of vulnerability to SLR, with the greatest level of overlap found between SLAMM outputs and elevation metrics. While soil strength varied predictably with habitat zone, it did not contribute significantly to the vulnerability metric. Despite the importance of determining wetland elevation above key tidal datums of mean sea level and mean high water, we caution that VDatum was found to perform poorly in back-barrier estuaries. This factor makes it difficult to compare elevation capital among marshes that differ in tidal range and poses accuracy problems for broad-scale modeling efforts that require accurate tidal datums. Given the pervasive pattern of coastal wetland drowning occurring in the Northeastern USA and elsewhere, we advocate that compilation of regional data on marsh habitats and vulnerability to SLR is crucial as it permits agencies to target adaptation to sites based on their vulnerability or mixture of habitats, it helps match sites to appropriate interventions, and it provides a broader regional context to site-specific management actions. Without such data, adaptation actions may be implemented where action is not necessary and to the disadvantage of vulnerable sites where opportunities for successful adaptation will be missed.     

The Pongola structure of southeastern Africa: The world's oldest preserved rift?

Rocks of the Pongola Supergroup form an elongate belt in the Archean Kaapvaal Craton of southern Africa. Because these rocks exhibit many features that are characteristic of rocks deposited in continental rifts, including rapid lateral variations in thickness and character of sediments, volcanic rocks that are bimodal in silica content, coarse, basement derived conglomerates and thick sequences of shallow water sedimentary facies associations, we suggest that the Pongola Supergroup was deposited in such a rift. The age of these rocks (approximately 3.0 Ga) makes the Pongola structure the world's oldest well-preserved rift so far recognized, and comparison of the Pongola Rift with other rifts formed more recently in earth history reveals striking similarities, suggesting that the processes that formed this rift were not significantly different from those that form continental rifts today.     

Starspot modelling of the RS CVn binary HK lacertae

Investigating more than 270 nightly mean magnitudes of the long-period RS CVn binary HK Lac, we can draw some conclusions about the nature of its complicated light variations. The mean brightness, the apparent photometric period, and the shape of the light curve all show strong variations. Analysis with a starspot model, assuming two large spots and a general uniform spottedness, indicates two comparably large spots which appear to have maintained their separate identities for the last 15 yr and drifted in longitude separation from each other smoothly by only about 45°. The phase of the two spots indicates both are rotating very nearly synchronously with the orbital motion, one slightly (0.025%) faster and the other slightly (0.080%) slower. the latitudes of the two spots, one farther above the equator and one closer to the equator, are consistent with solar-type differential rotation and yield an estimate of 25±12° for the co-rotating latitude. A correlation between mean spot latitude and instantaneous photometric period yields another estimate of 31±2°, in agreement with the first.     

An assessment of biases associated with caging,tethering, and trawl sampling of summer flounder (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Paralichthys dentatus</Emphasis>)

We provide an example of the type of bias assessment that should, but often is not, used in ecological studies using techniques such as caging, tethering, and trawl sampling. Growth rates of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) from cage enclosures were compared to those from mark-recapture trials, and prey types (identified through stomach content analysis) compared between caged fish and wild fish collected from nursery sites over a 2-yr period. Site-specific growth rates estimated from the caging method were similar (± 15%) to those estimated from the mark-recapture trials. Prey types were nearly identical between caged and wild fish, although selectivity may have varied quantitatively. Caging summer flounder will generally be an appropriate tool with which to measure growth rates in the wild, but comparisons with an independent measurement method are necessary for validation. In tethering trials, predation was significantly greater on tethered than on untethered fish, indicating that tethering is not an appropriate tool with which to measure absolute rates of predation on juvenile summer flounder. The lack of effects of substrate (sand versus mud) and fish origin (hatchery-reared versus wild) on predation of tethered versus untethered fish indicates that tethering trials will not indicate treatment-specific differences when none exist. Tethering may be an acceptable method for comparing relative rates of predation on different substrates and between hatchery-reared and wild juvenile summer flounder in the field, although true differences in treatment levels could be masked by tethering. Beam trawl efficiency estimates for juvenile summer flounder were similar between beach and marsh habitats, but differed significantly between marsh sites, indicating that site-specific trawl efficiency estimates may be critical to accurately assess juvenile flounder the appropriateness of comparisons of size-frequency information between the sites and habitats used in this study. Caging, tethering, and beam trawl sampling are appropriate tools for measuring ecological parameters of juvenile summer flounder, but only if possible biases of each method are identified and compensated for when interpreting data collected using these methods.     

The chad basin: An active intra-continental basin

Well over one hundred separate graben formed in association with ocean opening can be recognized around the shores of the Atlantic Ocean. The graben are linked forming an elaborate network of triple-rift systems. Some rifts developed to form ocean but many failed. The stratigraphie and structural history of these rift structures is varied and helps to illuminate the processes that operate at continental rupture. Rifting has been commonly accompanied by basaltic vulcanism and rapid accumulation of several kilometers of sediment. Horsts within the graben strongly influence early sediment distribution. Generally, rift faulting ceases about the time of onset of normal marine sedimentation but there are a few exceptions and some graben formed at ocean opening have influenced sediment distribution more than 100 m.y. later. Although tensional structures predominate strike-slip and compressional structures have developed locally in the graben. The rivers bringing the largest amounts of sediment into the Atlantic during the last 150 m.y. have prograded along failed rift arms formed at continental rupture. In some cases their deltas have come to lie on oceanic crust.     

Using GC-MS/Combustion/IRMS to determine the C/C ratios of individual hydrocarbons produced from the combustion of biomass materials--application to biomass burning

Simultaneous mass spectral detection and stable carbon isotope analysis was performed on individual indigenous n-alkanes isolated from single C₄ and C³ plant species and on a series of aliphatic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) produced from the combustion of these same biomass materials. The analysis technique used a combined gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometer (GC-MS/C/IRMS). Precision (2σ) for replicate measurements of individual compounds in standard solutions using this novel configuration ranged between 0.2 and 0.5‰ for n-alkanes and 0.3 and 0.8‰ for PAH. Accuracy of the n-alkane measurements ranged between 0.1 and 0.4‰ and that of the PAH measurements ranged between 0.2 and 0.9‰. Replicate GC-MS/C/IRMS measurements on the combustion-derived n-alkene/alkane pairs were performed to within a precision of between 0.1 and 1.1‰ and the precision for the combustion PAH was similar to the standard PAH solution. No notable isotopic effects were observed when altering the temperature of the combustion process from 900 to 700°C, or as a result of the individual n-alkenes/alkanes partitioning between the gaseous and condensate fractions. Combustion-derived n-alkenes/alkanes ranged from C₁₁ to C₃₁, and the C₄-derived n-alkenes/alkanes were approx. 8‰ more enriched in ¹³C than the C₃-derived compounds. Both the C₄ and C₃-derived n-alkenes/alkanes (C₂₀-C₃₀) were isotopically similar to the indigenous n-alkanes and were 2-3‰ more depleted in ¹³C than the lower mol. wt (C₁₁₁₁-C₁₉) n-alkenes/alkanes, suggesting an independent origin for the lower mol. wt compounds. Combustion-generated C₄ and C₃-derived 2-, 3-, and 4-ring PAH were also isotopically distinct (Δδ = 10‰). Unlike the n-alkenes/alkanes, no compound-to-compound variations were observed between the low and high mol. wt PAH. This study demonstrates that the isotopic composition of original plant biomass material is mainly preserved in the aliphatic hydrocarbons and PAH generated by its combustion. Consequently, analyses of these compounds in sediments impacted by fire occurrences may provide useful information about paleo-fire activity that may help elucidate the impact biomass burning may have had and could have on climate-biosphere interactions.     

Effective collision strengths for forbidden transitions in e-N and e-o scattering

Cross sections for forbidden transitions between all terms of the ground state configurations in electron scattering by atomic nitrogen and atomic oxygen are calculated using the R-matrix method. These cross sections are used to obtain effective collision strengths which are found to differ substantially from previous calculations at electron temperatures of interest in the physics of the upper atomsphere of the earth.     

Exploring controls of the early and stepped deglaciation on the western margin of the British Irish Ice Sheet

New optically stimulated luminescence dating and Bayesian models integrating all legacy and BRITICE-CHRONO geochronology facilitated exploration of the controls on the deglaciation of two former sectors of the British–Irish Ice Sheet, the Donegal Bay (DBIS) and Malin Sea ice-streams (MSIS). Shelf-edge glaciation occurred ~27 ka, before the global Last Glacial Maximum, and shelf-wide retreat began 26–26.5 ka at a rate of ~18.7–20.7 m a^–1. MSIS grounding zone wedges and DBIS recessional moraines show episodic retreat punctuated by prolonged still-stands. By ~23–22 ka the outer shelf (~25 000 km²) was free of grounded ice. After this time, MSIS retreat was faster (~20 m a^–1 vs. ~2–6 m a^–1 of DBIS). Separation of Irish and Scottish ice sources occurred ~20–19.5 ka, leaving an autonomous Donegal ice dome. Inner Malin shelf deglaciation followed the submarine troughs reaching the Hebridean coast ~19 ka. DBIS retreat formed the extensive complex of moraines in outer Donegal Bay at 20.5–19 ka. DBIS retreated on land by ~17–16 ka. Isolated ice caps in Scotland and Ireland persisted until ~14.5 ka. Early retreat of this marine-terminating margin is best explained by local ice loading increasing water depths and promoting calving ice losses rather than by changes in global temperatures. Topographical controls governed the differences between the ice-stream retreat from mid-shelf to the coast.