SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites, dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.     

Late Cretaceous rift-related upwelling and melting of the Trindade starting mantle plume head beneath western Brazil

High mantle potential temperatures and local extension, associated with the Late-Cretaceous impact of the Trindade mantle plume, produced substantial widespread and voluminous magmatism around the northern half of the Paraná sedimentary basin. Our previous studies have shown that, above the central and eastern portions of the postulated impact zone where lithosphere extension is minimal, heat conducted by the plume caused large-scale melting of the more fusible parts of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle beneath the margin of the São Francisco craton and the surrounding Brasilía mobile belt. Here we combine geochemical data and field evidence from the Poxoreu Igneous Province, western Brazil to show how more intense lithospheric extension above the western margin of the postulated impact zone permitted greater upwelling and melting of the Trindade plume than further east. Laser ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age determinations indicate that rift-related basaltic magmas of the Poxoreu Igneous Province were emplaced at ? 84 Ma. Our detailed geochemical study of the mafic magmas shows that the parental melts underwent polybaric crystal fractionation within the crust prior to final emplacement. Furthermore, some magmas (quartz-normative) appear to have assimilated upper crust whereas others (nepheline- and hypersthene-normative) appear to have been unaffected by open-system crustal magma chamber processes. Incompatible trace element ratios (e.g. chondrite-normalised La/Nb?=?1) and isotopic ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.704 and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.51274) of the Hy-normative basalts resemble those of oceanic islands (OIB). We therefore propose that these “OIB-like” magmas were predominantly derived from convecting-mantle-source melts (i.e. Trindade mantle plume). Inverse modelling of rare-earth element (REE) abundances suggests that the initial melts were predominantly generated within the depth range of ?80–100 km, in mantle with a potential temperature of ?1500 °C.     

Doppler radar spectral width broadening due to beamwidth and wind shear

The spectral width observed by Doppler radars can be due to several effects including the atmospheric turbulence within the radar sample volume plus effects associated with the background flow and the radar geometry and configuration. This study re-examines simple models for the effects due to finite beam-width and vertical shear of the horizontal wind. Analytic solutions of 1- and 2-dimensional models are presented. Comparisons of the simple 2-dimensional model with numerical integrations of a 3-dimensional model with a symmetrical Gaussian beam show that the 2-dimensional model is usually adequate. The solution of the 2-dimensional model gives a formula that can be applied easily to large data sets. Analysis of the analytic solutions of the 2-dimensional model for off-vertical beams reveals a term that has not been included in mathematical formulas for spectral broadening in the past. This term arises from the simultaneous effects of the changing geometry due to curvature within a finite beamwidth and the vertical wind shear. The magnitude of this effect can be comparable to that of the well-known effects of beam-broadening and wind shear, and since it can have either algebraic sign, it can significantly reduce (or increase) the expected spectral broadening, although under typical conditions it is smaller than the beam-broadening effect. The predictions of this simple model are found to be consistent with observations from the VHP radar at White Sands Missile Range, NM.