RegCM3区域气候模式对中国气候的模拟

使用RegCM3区域气候模式嵌套ERA40再分析资料,对东亚地区进行了15 a（1987-2001年）时间长度的数值积分试验。结果表明：模式可较好地模拟中国地面气温的分布和季节变化,但存在系统性的冷偏差;对降水的变化模拟也较好,但其地理分布模拟存在一定偏差。     

The possible influences of the increasing anthropogenic emissions in India on tropospheric ozone and OH

A 3-D chemical transport model (OSLO CTM2) is used to investigate the influences of the increasing anthropogenic emission in India. The model is capable of reproducing the observational results of the INDOEX experiment and the measurements in summer over India well. The model results show that when NOx and CO emissions in India are doubled, ozone concentration increases, and global average OH decreases a little. Under the effects of the Indian summer monsoon, NOx and CO in India are efficiently transported into the middle and upper troposphere by the upward current and the convective activities so that the NOx, CO, and ozone in the middle and upper troposphere significantly increase with the increasing NOx and CO emissions. These increases extensively influence a part of Asia, Africa, and Europe, and persist from June to September.     

Variations of contemporary glaciation of the northern slope of the Greater Caucasus in the 20th century and the forecast of its degradation in the 21st century

In the 20th century on the territory of the northern slope of the Greater Caucasus the number of glaciers increased by 245 (or by 19%) and the glaciation area decreased by 849 km² (or by 52.6%). It is revealed that the increase in the number of glaciers occurred as a result of the disintegration of larger glaciers into smaller parts and as a result of the cutoff of their tributaries, and the decrease in the glaciation area, due to the negative balance of the mass of glaciers. The length of all glaciers decreased by 128–3520 m during that period. It is demonstrated that in 1970–2011 the decrease in the glaciation area occurred with the rate being smaller than in 1895–1970 by 1.6 times that is associated with more favorable climatic conditions in 1970–2011. According to the computations of the climate model by the Main Geophysical Observatory (moderate scenario) for 2011–2099, average annual air temperature will increase by 1.06–2.70°C and the annual amount of precipitation, by 2.09–2.77%. According to the results of computations, the glaciation area in 2011–2099 will reduce by 585 km² or by 76.5%. In the region under consideration, glaciation with the area of 180 km² which will be concentrated only in the central part of the Greater Caucasus will maintain by 2099. The glacier runoff will decrease by 74–80%.     

Condensed water in tropical cyclone “Oliver”, 8 February 1993

On February 8, 1993, the NASA DC-8 aircraft profiled from 10,000 to 37,000 feet (3.1–11.3 km) pressure altitude in a stratified section of tropical cyclone “Oliver” over the Coral Sea northeast of Australia. Size, shape and phase of cloud and precipitation particles were measured with a 2-D Greyscale probe. Cloud/ precipitation particles changed from liquid to ice as soon as the freezing level was reached near 17,000 feet (5.2 km) pressure altitude. The cloud was completely glaciated at −5°C. There was no correlation between ice particle habit and ambient temperature. In the liquid phase, the precipitation-cloud drop concentration was 4.0 × 10³ m⁻³, the geometric mean diameter D_g=0.5−0.7 mm, and the liquid water content 0.7−1.9 g m⁻³. The largest particles anywhere in the cloud, dominated by fused dendrites at concentrations similar to that of raindrops (2.5 × 10³ m⁻³) but a higher condensed water content (5.4 g m⁻³ estimated) were found in the mixed phase; condensed water is removed very effectively from the mixed layer due to high settling velocities of the large mixed particles. The highest number concentration (4.9 × 10⁴ m⁻³), smallest size (D_g=0.3−0.4 mm), largest surface area (up to 2.6 × 10² cm² m⁻³ at 0.4−1.0 g m⁻³ of condensate) existed in the ice phase at the coldest temperature (−40°C) at 35,000 feet (10.7 km). Each cloud contained aerosol (haze particles) in addition to cloud particles. The aerosol total surface area exceeded that of the cirrus particles at the coldest temperature. Thus, aerosols must play a significant role in the upscattering of solar radiation. Light extinction (6.2 km⁻¹) and backscatter (0.8 sr⁻¹ km⁻¹) was highest in the coldest portion of the cirrus cloud at the highest altitude.     

Loose threads: The translocal making of public space policy in Hanoi

This paper analyses the recent developments in public space policy in the city of Hanoi, Vietnam. It has three aims. The first is to look at a potentially progressive urban policy in contrast to most work on ‘policies in motion’ that has primarily been concerned with neoliberal policies. The second is to put the process of public space policymaking in Hanoi in historical and cultural perspective. We therefore describe public space in Hanoi as historically constituted by different layers of meaning and physical urban patterns. The paper's third aim is to analyse the translocal connections involved in a policy that is still in the making, and therefore characterized by a series of ‘loose threads’. We show how different types of connections – policy mobility, topological relations and inter‐referencing – relate Hanoi to multiple locales elsewhere. The conclusion reflects on the ‘politics of reception’ showing how analysing a policy in the making develops a critical analysis of policies in motion.     

Earthquake source nucleation process in the zone of a permanently creeping deep fault

The worldwide practice of earthquake prediction, whose beginning relates to the 1970s, shows that spatial manifestations of various precursors under real seismotectonic conditions are very irregular. As noted in [Kurbanov et al., 1980], zones of bending, intersection, and branching of deep faults, where conditions are favorable for increasing tangential tectonic stresses, serve as “natural amplifiers” of precursory effects. The earthquake of September 28, 2004, occurred on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas deep fault in the area of a local bending of its plane. The fault segment about 60 km long and its vicinities are the oldest prognostic area in California. Results of observations before and after the earthquake were promptly analyzed and published in a special issue of Seismological Research Letters (2005, Vol. 76, no. 1). We have an original method enabling the monitoring of the integral rigidity of seismically active rock massifs. The integral rigidity is determined from the relative numbers of brittle and viscous failure acts during the formation of source ruptures of background earthquakes in a given massif. Fracture mechanisms are diagnosed from the steepness of the first arrival of the direct P wave. Principles underlying our method are described in [Lykov and Mostryukov, 1996, 2001, 2003]. Results of monitoring have been directly displayed at the site of the Laboratory (http://wwwbrk.adm.yar.ru/russian/1_512/index.html) since the mid-1990s. It seems that this information has not attracted the attention of American seismologists. This paper assesses the informativeness of the rigidity monitoring at the stage of formation of a strong earthquake source in relation to other methods.     

Application of a nonlinear slug test model

Knowledge of the hydraulic conductivity distribution is of utmost importance in understanding the dynamics of an aquifer and in planning the consequences of any action taken upon that aquifer. Slug tests have been used extensively to measure hydraulic conductivity in the last 50 years since Hvorslev's (1951) work. A general nonlinear model based on the Navier-Stokes equation, nonlinear frictional loss, non-Darcian flow, acceleration effects, radius changes in the wellbore, and a Hvorslev model for the aquifer has been implemented in this work. The nonlinear model has three parameters: beta, which is related primarily to radius changes in the water column; A, which is related to the nonlinear head losses; and K, the hydraulic conductivity. An additional parameter has been added representing the initial velocity of the water column at slug initiation and is incorporated into an analytical solution to generate the first time step before a sequential numerical solution generates the remainder of the time solution. Corrections are made to the model output for acceleration before it is compared to the experimental data. Sensitivity analysis and least squares fitting are used to estimate the aquifer parameters and produce some diagnostic results, which indicate the accuracy of the fit. Finally, an example of field data has been presented to illustrate the application of the model to data sets that exhibit nonlinear behavior. Multiple slug tests should be taken at a given location to test for nonlinear effects and to determine repeatability.     

Stochasticity of planetary orbits in double star systems. II

Cosmogonical theories as well as recent observations allow us to expect the existence of numerous exo-planets, including in binaries. Then arises the dynamical problem of stability for planetary orbits in double star systems. Modern computations have shown that many such stable orbits do exist, among which we consider orbits around one component of the binary (called S-type orbits). Within the framework of the elliptic plane restricted three-body problem, the phase space of initial conditions for fictitious S-type planetary orbits is systematically explored, and limits for stability had been previously established for four nearby binaries which components are nearly of solar type. Among stable orbits, found up to distance of their sun of the order of half the binarys periastron distance, nearly-circular ones exist for the three binaries (among the four) having a not too high orbital eccentricity. In the first part of the present paper, we compare these previous results with orbits around a 16 Cyg B-like binarys component with varied eccentricities, and we confirm the existence of stable nearly-circular S-type planetary orbits but for very high binarys eccentricity. It is well-known that chaos may destroy this stability after a very long time (several millions years or more). In a first paper, we had shown that a stable planetary orbit, although chaotic, could keep its stability for more than a billion years (confined chaos). Then, in the second part of the present paper, we investigate the chaotic behaviour of two sets of planetary orbits among the stable ones found around 16 Cyg B-like components in the first part, one set of strongly stable orbits and the other near the limit of stability. Our results show that the stability of the first set is not destroyed when the binarys eccentricity increases even to very high values (0.95), but that the stability of the second set is destroyed as soon as the eccentricity reaches the value 0.8.     

Digital Elevation Models of the Bottom in the Operational Oceanography System

Oceanology - A new area of oceanography, operational oceanography, involves a comprehensive assessment and forecast of the variability of the state of the marine environment. This requires...