A Long-Term Forecast Model of Spring Runoff: The Case of the Belaya River

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of long-term forecasting of the spring runoff in the Belaya River basin based on the water-balance model are presented. The structure and parameters of the...     

Modeling preferential flow in reactive barriers: implications for performance and design

Reactive barriers are passive and in situ ground water treatment systems. Heterogeneities in hydraulic conductivity (K) within the aquifer-reactive barrier system will result in higher flux rates, and reduced residence times, through portions of the barrier. These spatial variations in residence time will affect the treatment capacity of the barrier. A numerical flow model was used to evaluate the effects of spatial variations in K on preferential flow through barriers. The simulations indicate that the impact of heterogeneities in K will be a function of their location and distribution; the more localized the high K zone, the greater the preferential flow. The geometry of the reactive barrier will also strongly influence flow distribution. Aquifer heterogeneities will produce greater preferential flow in thinner barriers compared to thicker barriers. If the barrier K is heterogeneous, greater preferential flow will occur in thicker barriers. The K of the barrier will affect the flow distribution; decreasing the K of the barrier can result in more even distribution of flow. Results indicate that less variable flow will be attained utilizing thicker, homogeneous barriers. The addition of homogeneous zones to thinner barriers will be effective at redistributing flow only if installed immediately adjacent to both the up- and downgradient faces of the barrier.     

Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic history of the Lake Baikal depression and formation of its unique biodiversity

Independent methods of geological and molecular-biological chronologies have made it possible to define generally corresponding stages in the geological and biological evolution of the environments and communities of Lake Baikal since the Late Cretaceous, i.e., during the last 70 myr. All the abiotic elements drastically changed during geological evolution, with destruction of existing and formation of new natural complexes. Nevertheless, some specific zones retained relicts of former settings. The resulting present-day natural complex includes elements of different ages and geneses. Similar to different natural zones of the present-day Earth, which are populated by different biocoenoses, stages in the development of abiotic elements are also characterized by different faunal and floral assemblages. Some taxa were replaced by others, and the resulting aqueous biota of Lake Baikal includes different-age and ecologically different elements. The oldest groups of Baikal organisms appeared approximately 70 Ma ago, although the largest proportion of the lake biota started forming 4–3 Ma ago in response to the most drastic changes in the abiotic elements of the environment. The youngest taxa appeared 1.8 to 0.15 Ma ago, i.e., during the period when superdeep lake environments and mountainous glaciations were developing. The chronological coincidence of main stages in development of abiotic and biotic elements of the nature indicates their relationships. Particular transformations of abiotic elements and the probable mechanism of their influence on the evolution of living communities are also considered.     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Potential environmental issues of CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers: Geochemical results from the Frio-I Brine Pilot test,Texas, USA

Sedimentary basins in general, and deep saline aquifers in particular, are being investigated as possible repositories for large volumes of anthropogenic CO₂ that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes. To investigate the potential for the long-term storage of CO₂ in such aquifers, 1600 t of CO₂ were injected at 1500 m depth into a 24-m-thick “C” sandstone unit of the Frio Formation, a regional aquifer in the US Gulf Coast. Fluid samples obtained before CO₂ injection from the injection well and an observation well 30 m updip showed a Na–Ca–Cl type brine with ∼93,000 mg/L TDS at saturation with CH₄ at reservoir conditions; gas analyses showed that CH₄ comprised ∼95% of dissolved gas, but CO₂ was low at 0.3%. Following CO₂ breakthrough, 51 h after injection, samples showed sharp drops in pH (6.5–5.7), pronounced increases in alkalinity (100–3000 mg/L as HCO₃) and in Fe (30–1100 mg/L), a slug of very high DOC values, and significant shifts in the isotopic compositions of H₂O, DIC, and CH₄. These data, coupled with geochemical modeling, indicate corrosion of pipe and well casing as well as rapid dissolution of minerals, especially calcite and iron oxyhydroxides, both caused by lowered pH (initially ∼3.0 at subsurface conditions) of the brine in contact with supercritical CO₂.     

Synthetic coral-reef terraces and variations of Quaternary sea level

Coral-reef terraces on tectonically elevated coasts provide important data on variations of sea level. In this paper a systematic approach is presented for the construction of synthetic reef terraces. Idealized reef terraces are generated assuming a constant rate of tectonic uplift ν and a harmonic variation of sea level with amplitudeh_wo and period τ. It is further assumed that coral terraces grow only during periods of relative sea-level rise. The behavior is governed by the parameter u = τυ/2π h_wo. If u > 1 no reef terraces form. If 0.217 < u < 1 a discontinuous series of terraces form on the uplifting basement. If 0 < u < 0.217 the basement is covered with coral and a series of coral terraces forms on this coral. Uplifted coral-reef terraces on the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, compare reasonably well with terraces generated by our model with τ = 20,000 years andh_wo = 21.4 m. We also compare the observed terraces with model terraces using the paleo sea level inferred from¹⁸O/¹⁶O data. The observed terraces are qualitatively similar to those predicted using the oxygen isotope data, however, the model terraces require larger relative sea-level variations with a near 20,000 year period than those inferred directly from the¹⁸O/¹⁶O data.     

Calibration of the high-pressure cohesive strength meter (CSM)

Coastal erosion is an immense economic and social problem that has been receiving increased attention in recent years. A number of devices have been developed to determine the sediment stability in coastal areas: laboratory and field flumes; a range of different erosion devices; shear vanes and fall cone penetrometers. The cohesive strength meter (CSM) erosion device was developed to determine in situ the temporal and spatial variations in the erosion threshold of muddy intertidal sediments. Technological developments have enabled considerable improvements to be made to the original design over the last 15 years.     

Solitary wave generation dynamics at Luzon Strait

A high resolution modeling study is undertaken, with a 2.5-dimensional nonhydrostatic model, of the generation of internal waves induced by tidal motion over the ridges in Luzon Strait. The model is forced by the barotropic tidal components K1, M2, and O1. These tidal components, along with the initial density field, were extracted from data and models. As the barotropic tide moves over the Luzon Strait sills, there is a conversion of barotropic tidal energy into baroclinic tidal energy. Depressions are generated that propagate towards the Asian Seas International Acoustics Experiment (ASIAEX) test site on the Chinese continental shelf. Nonlinear effects steepen the depressions, frequency and amplitude dispersion set in, and disintegration into large amplitude solitary waves occurs. The effects of varying the initial density field, tidal component magnitudes, as well as adding a steady background current to represent the occasional excursions of the Kuroshio Current into the strait, are considered.Depressions are generated at each of the two sills in Luzon Strait which radiate away, steepening and evolving into internal solitary wave trains. Baroclinic fluxes of available potential energy, kinetic energy and linear are calculated for various parameter combinations. The solitary wave trains produced in the simulations generally consist of large amplitude wave trains alternating with small amplitude wave trains. During strong tidal flow, Kelvin–Helmholtz type instabilities can develop over the taller double-humped sill. The solitary waves propagating towards the ASIAEX test site have been observed to reach amplitudes of 120–250 m, depending on the tidal strength. ASIAEX observations indicate amplitudes up to 150 m and the Windy Island Experiment (WISE) measurements contain magnitudes over 200 m. The model results yield solitary wave amplitudes of 70–300 m and half widths of 0.60–3.25 km, depending on parameter values. These are in the range of observations. Measurements by Klymak et al. (2006), in the South China Sea, exhibit amplitudes of 170 m, half widths of 3 km and phase speeds of 2.9 m s^?1. Model predictions indicate that the solitary waves making up the wave packet each experience different background currents with strong near surface shear.The energy in the leading soliton of the large amplitude wave trains ranges between 1.8 and 9.0 GJ m^?1. The smaller value, produced using barotropic tidal currents based on the Oregon State University data base, is the same as the energy estimated to be in a solitary wave observed by Klymak et al. (2006). Estimates of the conversion of barotropic tidal energy into radiating internal wave energy yield conversion rates ranging between 3.6% and 8.3%.