Prediction of hydrological phenomena using self-organizing mathematical models

The paper considers the application of self-organizing models, specifically, the method of grouped arguments consideration (MGAC), to forecast short and non-stationary time series of observations in the ocean. A sequence of operations for the treatment of observational series is suggested. To assess its efficiency, we have used mean monthly oxygen concentration data collected in the surface and near-bottom layers of the Taganrog Bay. It is shown that the application of the MGAC model allows one to reduce by two times the root-mean-square error of that of the series prediction by five points, in comparison with the Jenkins-Box regressional model. It has been concluded that the predictors' non-linear functions may be effectively used in the treatment of short samplings. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

The choice of a dynamico-stochastic model for ocean monitoring — A compromise between the accuracy and cost of computations

In this paper we compare, two dynamico-stochastic models (DSMs) with different hydrodynamic parts, designed to study a large-scale North Atlantic region. As a performance criterion, RMS errors (over the horizon) in density and velocity field reconstruction are used. It has been shown that in some cases it seems rational to use DSMs with simplified hydrodynamic parts. This helps to expedite the computations and to reduce the related costs without much detriment to the quality of hydrophysical field simulation.UDK 551.465.001.573(261.1).Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Preservation conditions and the use of sediment pigments as a tool for recent ecological reconstruction in four Northern European estuaries

Down-core sediment pigment concentrations from four Northern European estuaries were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) to investigate phytoplankton community structure and preservation conditions over the last ca. 100 years where all sites have experienced different levels of eutrophication. Phytoplankton pigments have been shown to be useful biomarkers for phytoplankton community structure and abundance due to their taxonomic specificity. The pigment concentrations and sediment pigment inventory showed large variation between the four sites. Concentrations ranged from more than 6000 nmol/g OC to less than 100 nmol/g OC and the inventory integrated over the top 10 cm from more than 300 nmol/cm² to less than 30 nmol/cm² for total identified pigments. Good pigment preservation in Mariager Fjord (Denmark) reflected the almost permanently anoxic conditions. Pigments in Laajalahti (Finland) showed peak concentrations around the time of highest nitrogen loading events known from historical and modelled records over the past 100 years. In contrast, poor down-core preservation of pigments (especially carotenoids) was observed in the Ems-Dollard (The Netherlands) and Himmerfjärden (Sweden) estuaries. The Ems-Dollard site is an intertidal mudflat that experiences daily exposure to light and air, which enhances pigment degradation. In Himmerfjärden, resuspension is an important process affecting both the sedimentation rate and degradation properties. The different preservation conditions at the four sites were supported by the differences in two degradation indicators; the ratio of pheopigment-a to chlorophyll-a and total carotenoids to total pigments. Class-specific carotenoid pigments represented the dominant algal groups reported from each site, however, no distinct down-core changes in the pigment composition were observed at any of the four sites. This indicated that changes in plankton community structure on the group level have been limited over this time period or masked by low preservation of pigments.     

Jason-1: Assessment of the System Performances

On 7 December 2001, Jason-1 was successfully launched by a Boeing Delta II rocket from the Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. The Jason-1 satellite will maintain the high accuracy altimeter service provided since 1992 by TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), ensuring the continuity in observing and monitoring the Ocean Dynamics (intraseasonal to interannual changes, mean sea level, tides, etc.). Despite one-fourth the mass and power, the Jason-1 system has been designed to have basically the same performance as T/P, measuring sea surface topography at a centimetric level. This new CNES/NASA mission also provides near real-time data for sea state and ocean forecast. The first two months of the Jason-1 mission have been dedicated to the assessment of the overall system. The goals of this assessment phase were:

1. To assess the behavior of the spacecraft at the platform and payload levels (Jason-1 being the first program to call on the PROTEUS versatile multimission platform for Low and Medium Earth Orbit Missions developed in partnership between Alcatel Space and CNES);

2. To verify that platform performance requirements are met with respect to Jason-1 requirements;

3. To verify that payload instruments performance requirements evaluated at instrument level are met;

4. To assess the performance of the Jason-1 Ground System.

This article will display the main outputs of the assessment of the system. It will demonstrate that all the elements of the onboard and ground systems are within the specifications. Provision of data to the Jason-1 Science Working Team started at the end of March 2002. This is the goal of a six-month phase after closure of the initial assessment phase to derive the error budget of the system in terms of altimetry user products.     

Diet shifts of Caribbean grunts (Haemulidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) and the relation with nursery-to-coral reef migrations

The spatial size distribution of grunts and snappers have previously indicated the separation of juveniles in nursery habitats from the adults on the coral reef. This implies life cycle migrations from nursery habitats (such as seagrass beds and mangroves) to the coral reef. If diet shifts are related to such migrations, then the diets of these fish must change before or around the fish size at which such migrations take place. A wide size range of juveniles of two grunt species (Haemulon sciurus and Haemulon flavolineatum) and of two snapper species (Lutjanus apodus and Ocyurus chrysurus) were caught in seagrass beds and mangroves, and their gut contents identified and quantified. Regression analysis between fish size and dietary importance of small crustaceans showed a negative relationship in all four species. Positive relations were found for H. sciurus, L. apodus and O. chrysurus between fish length and the dietary importance of decapods, and for L. apodusand O. chrysurus between fish length and prey fish importance. Critical changes in the fish diets with fish size were examined by application of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). The CCA yielded three clusters of size-classes of fishes with similar diets, and application of a Mantel test showed that each of these clusters had significantly different diets, and that each cluster diet was significantly specialised. The size at which a fish species ‘switched’ from one cluster to another was compared with size-at-maturity data and with the typical size at which these species migrate from the nursery habitats to the coral reef. H. sciurus and H. flavolineatum may be prompted to migrate from the nursery habitats to coral reef habitats because of dietary changes, or because of the development of the gonads. For L. apodus and O. chrysurus, a dietary changeover forms a more likely explanation for nursery-to-reef migrations than does sexual maturation because these species reach maturity at sizes much larger than the maximum size of individuals found in nursery habitats. Although other factors may theoretically initiate or promote the migration patterns, the results of this study indicate that ontogenetic dietary changes may crucially influence the nursery-to-coral reef migrations of these reef fish species.     

Seasonal variation of pteropods from the Western Arabian Sea sediment trap

Sediment trap samples collected from the Western Arabian Sea yielded a rich assemblage of intact and non-living (opaque white) pteropod tests from a water depth of 919 m during January to September 1993. Nine species of pteropods were recorded, all (except one) displaying distinct seasonality in abundance, suggesting their response to changing hydrographical conditions influenced by the summer/winter monsoon cycle. Pteropod fluxes increased during the April–May peak of the intermonsoon, and reached maximum levels in the late phase of the southwest summer monsoon, probably due to the shallowing of the mixed layer depth. This shallowing, coupled with enhanced nutrient availability, provides ideal conditions for pteropod growth, also reflected in corresponding fluctuations in the flux of the foraminifer Globigerina bulloides. Pteropod/planktic foraminifer ratios displayed marked seasonal variations, the values increasing during the warmer months of April and May when planktic foraminiferal fluxes declined. The variation in fluxes of calcium carbonate, organic carbon and biogenic opal show positive correlations with fluxes of pteropods and planktic foraminifers. Calcium carbonate was the main contributor to the total particulate flux, especially during the SW monsoon. In the study area, pteropod flux variations are similar to the other flux patterns, indicating that they, too could be used as a potential tool for palaeoclimatic reconstruction of the recent past.