Forecasting metropolitan and urban subregional population changes and their resource use implications: methodology and example--Sydney,Australia

This paper is concerned with the methodology of forecasting population change and structures of large cities and their major subregions. "The model isolates quantifiable base populations and their growth, and international, inter-state and city-hinterland migration streams and the national increase attributable to each, and intra-urban mobility, as components of growth and change." The model is applied to data for Sydney, Australia, and its applicability to other urban systems is considered.     

Cosmic-ray antimatter: A primary origin hypothesis

We examine the possibility that the observed cosmic-ray protons are of primary extragalactic origin. The present \(\bar p\) data are consistent with a primary extragalactic component having \(\bar p\) /p?3.2±0.7 x 10^-4 independent of energy. Following the suggestion that most extragalactic cosmic rays are from active galaxies, we propose that most of the observed \(\bar p\) 's are alos from the same sites. This would imply the possibility of destroying the corresponding \(\bar \alpha \) 'sat the source, thus leading to a flux ratio \(\bar \alpha \) /α< \(\bar p\) /p. We further predict an estimate for \(\bar \alpha \) α～10^-5, within the range of future cosmic-ray detectors. the cosmological implications of this proposal are discussed.     

Hydrodynamical models of type II supernovae

A series of hydrodynamical models of type-II supernova outbursts (SNII) has been calculated. Approximate relations connecting the total outburst energy ε, the mass of envelope ejectedM, the presupernova radiusR, and the amount of ionizing quanta radiated by the supernovaeN _H with such values as the duration of the light curve plateau Δt, and absolute magnitude in the wavelength bandV and photospheric velocityU _PH observed near the middle of the plateau have been established. Advantage has been taken of the relations to obtain a preliminary evaluation for the characteristics of the average SN II: ε=7×10⁵⁰ erg,M=6M _⊙,R=500R _⊙,N _H=2×10⁵⁸. The SNIIs with plateau-like light curves seem to be accounted for by thermonuclear explosions of degenerate cores of red giant stars and result in a total disruption of the star without any stellar remnant. To the contrary, SNIIs with linear light curves have substantially different properties (in particular, they throw considerably less massive envelopes off). These SNII must signify the birth of collapsed objects—neutron stars (pulsars) or black holes.     

Variability of carbon monoxide in the mars atmosphere

In January of 1982 we measured a microwave spectrum of CO in the Martian atmosphere utilizing the rotational J = 1 → 2 transition of CO. We have analyzed data and reanalyzed the microwave spectra of R. K. Kakar, J. W. Waters, and W. J. Wilson, (Science196, 1090–1091, 1977, measured in 1975) and J. C. Good and F. P. Schloerb, (Icarus47, 166–172, 1981 measured in 1980) in order to constrain estimates of the temporal variability of CO abundance in the Martian atmosphere. Our values of CO column density from the data of Karar et al., Good and Schloerb, and our own are 1.7 ± 0.9 × 10²⁰, 3.0 ± 1.0 × 10²⁰, and 4.6 ± 2.0 × 10²⁰cm^?2, respectively. The most recent estimate of CO column density from the 1967 infrared spectra of J. Connes, P. Connes, and J.P. Maillard, (Atlas de Spectres Infarouges de Venus, Mars, Jupiter, et Saturne, Editions due Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, 1969), is 2.0 ± 0.8 × 10²⁰ cm^?2 (L.D.G. Young and A.T. Young, Icarus30, 75–79, 1977). The large uncertainties given for the microwave measurements are due primarily to uncertainty in the difference between the continuum brightness temperature and atmospheric temperatures of Mars. We have accurately calculated the variation among the observations of the continuum (surface) brightness temperature of Mars, which is primaroly a function of the observed aspect of Mars. A more difficult problem to consider is variability of global atmospheric temperatures among the observations, particularly the effects of global dust storms and the ellipticity of the orbit of Mars. The large bars accompanying our estimates of CO column density from the three sets of microwave measurements are primarily caused by an assumed uncertainty of ±10°K in our atmospheric temperature model due to possible dust in the atmosphere. A qualitative consideration of seasonal variability of global atmospheric temperatures among the measurements suggests that there is not strong evidence for variability of the column abundance of CO on Mars, although variability of 0–100% over a time scale of several years is allowed by the data set. The implication for the variability of Mars O₂ is, crudely, a factor of two less. We found that the altitude distribution of CO in the atmosphere of Mars was not well constrained by any of the spectra, although our spectrum was marginally better fitted by an altitude increasing profile of CO mixing ratios.     

X-Ray and microwave observations of active regions

Radio and X-ray observations are presented for three flares which show significant activity for several minutes prior to the main impulsive increase in the hard X-ray flux. The activity in this ‘pre-flash’ phase is investigated using 3.5 to 461 keV X-ray data from the Solar Maximum Mission, 100 to 1000 MHz radio data from Zürich, and 169 MHz radio-heliograph data from Nançay. The major results of this study are as follows:

1. Decimetric pulsations, interpreted as plasma emission at densities of 10⁹–10¹⁰ cm^?3, and soft X-rays are observed before any Hα or hard X-ray increase.
2. Some of the metric type III radio bursts appear close in time to hard X-ray peaks but delayed between 0.5 and 1.5 s, with the shorter delays for the bursts with the higher starting frequencies.
3. The starting frequencies of these type III bursts appear to correlate with the electron temperatures derived from isothermal fits to the hard X-ray spectra. Such a correlation is expected if the particles are released at a constant altitude with an evolving electron distribution. In addition to this effect we find evidence for a downward motion of the acceleration site at the onset of the flash phase.
4. In some cases the earlier type III bursts occurred at a different location, far from the main position during the flash phase.
5. The flash phase is characterized by higher hard X-ray temperatures, more rapid increase in X-ray flux, and higher starting frequency of the coincident type III bursts.

     

Crustal motion and deformation in Greece from a decade of GPS measurements, 1993–2003

The Hellenic plate boundary region, located in the collision zone between the Nubian/Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates, is one of the seismo-tectonically most active areas of Europe. During the last 15 years, GPS measurements have been used to determine the crustal motion in the area of Greece with the aim to better understand the geodynamical processes of this region. An extended reoccupation network covering whole Greece has been measured periodically in numerous GPS campaigns since the late eighties, and a continuous GPS network has been operated in the region of the Ionian Sea since 1995. In this paper, we present a new detailed high-quality solution of continuous and campaign-type measurements acquired between 1993 and 2003. During the GPS processing, a special effort was made to obtain consistent results with highest possible accuracies and reliabilities. Data of 54 mainly European IGS and EUREF sites were included in the GPS processing in order to obtain results which are internally consistent with the European kinematic field and order to allow for a regional interpretation. After an overview of the results of the IGS/EUREF sites, the results from more than 80 stations in Greece are presented in terms of velocities, time series, trajectories and strain rates. Previous geodetic, geological and seismological findings are generally confirmed and substantially refined. New important results include the observation of deformation zones to the north and to the south of the North Aegean Trough and in the West Hellenic arc region, arc-parallel extension of about 19 mm/yr along the Hellenic arc, and compression between the Ionian islands and the Greek mainland. Due to continuous long-term observations of 4–8 years, it was possible to extract height changes from the GPS time series. In Greece, we observe a differential subsidence of the order of 2 mm/yr between the northern and central Ionian islands across the Kefalonia fault zone. The differential subsidence of the central Ionian islands with respect to the northwestern Greek mainland amounts to 4 mm/yr.     

Holocene activity of the Scilla Fault, Southern Calabria: Insights from coastal morphological and structural investigations

Integration of on-land and offshore geomorphological and structural investigations coupled to extensive radiometric dating of co-seismically uplifted Holocene beaches allows characterization of the geometry, kinematics and seismotectonics of the Scilla Fault, which borders the eastern side of the Messina Strait in Calabria, Southern Italy. This region has been struck by destructive historical earthquakes, but knowledge of geologically-based source parameters for active faults is relatively poor, particularly for those running mostly offshore, as the Scilla Fault does. The  30 km-long normal fault may be divided into three segments of  10 km individual length, with the central and southern segments split in at least two strands. The central and northern segments are submerged, and in this area marine geophysical data indicate a youthful morphology and locally evidence for active faulting. The on-land strand of the western segment displaces marine terraces of the last interglacial (124 to 83 ka), but seismic reflection profiles suggest a full Quaternary activity. Structural data collected on bedrock faults exposed along the on-land segment provide evidence for normal slip and  NW-SE extension, which is consistent with focal mechanisms of large earthquakes and GPS velocity fields in the region. Detailed mapping of raised Holocene marine deposits exposed at the coastline straddling of the northern and central segments supplies evidence for two co-seismic displacements at  1.9 and  3.5 ka, and a possible previous event at  5 ka. Co-seismic displacements show a consistent site value and pattern of along-strike variation, suggestive of characteristic-type behaviour for the fault. The  1.5–2.0 m average co-seismic slips during these events document M_e  6.9–7.0 earthquakes with  1.6–1.7 ka recurrence time. Because hanging-wall subsidence cannot be included into slip magnitude computation, these slips reflect footwall uplift, and represent minimum average estimates. The palaeoseismological record based on the palaeo-shorelines suggests that the last rupture on the Scilla Fault during the February 6, 1783 M_w = 5.9–6.3 earthquake was at the expected time but it may have not entirely released the loaded stress since the last great event at  1.9 ka. Comparison of the estimated co-seismic extension rate based on the Holocene shoreline record with available GPS velocities indicates that the Scilla Fault accounts for at least  15–20% of the contemporary geodetic extension across the Messina Strait.     

The Lower Permian Wasp Head Formation,Sydney Basin: high‐latitude,shallow marine sedimentation following the late Asselian to early Sakmarian glacial event in eastern Australia

The Lower Permian Wasp Head Formation (early to middle Sakmarian) is a ～95 m thick unit that was deposited during the transition to a non‐glacial period following the late Asselian to early Sakmarian glacial event in eastern Australia. This shallow marine, sandstone‐dominated unit can be subdivided into six facies associations. (i) The marine sediment gravity flow facies association consists of breccias and conglomerates deposited in upper shoreface water depths. (ii) Upper shoreface deposits consist of cross‐stratified, conglomeratic sandstones with an impoverished expression of the Skolithos Ichnofacies. (iii) Middle shoreface deposits consist of hummocky cross‐stratified sandstones with a trace fossil assemblage that represents the Skolithos Ichnofacies. (iv) Lower shoreface deposits are similar to middle shoreface deposits, but contain more pervasive bioturbation and a distal expression of the Skolithos Ichnofacies to a proximal expression of the Cruziana Ichnofacies. (v) Delta‐influenced, lower shoreface‐offshore transition deposits are distinguished by sparsely bioturbated carbonaceous mudstone drapes within a variety of shoreface and offshore deposits. Trace fossil assemblages represent distal expressions of the Skolithos Ichnofacies to stressed, proximal expressions of the Cruziana Ichnofacies. Impoverished trace fossil assemblages record variable and episodic environmental stresses possibly caused by fluctuations in sedimentation rates, substrate consistencies, salinity, oxygen levels, turbidity and other physio‐chemical stresses characteristic of deltaic conditions. (vi) The offshore transition‐offshore facies association consists of mudstone and admixed sandstone and mudstone with pervasive bioturbation and an archetypal to distal expression of the Cruziana Ichnofacies. The lowermost ～50 m of the formation consists of a single deepening upward cycle formed as the basin transitioned from glacioisostatic rebound following the Asselian to early Sakmarian glacial to a regime dominated by regional extensional subsidence without significant glacial influence. The upper ～45 m of the formation can be subdivided into three shallowing upward cycles (parasequences) that formed in the aftermath of rapid, possibly glacioeustatic, rises in relative sea‐level or due to autocyclic progradation patterns. The shift to a parasequence‐dominated architecture and progressive decrease in ice‐rafted debris upwards through the succession records the release from glacioisostatic rebound and amelioration of climate that accompanied the transition to broadly non‐glacial conditions.     

Trace element distribution among rock-forming minerals from metamorphosed to partially molten basic igneous rocks in a contact aureole (Fuerteventura, Canaries)

Low pressure partial melting of basanitic and ankaramitic dykes gave rise to unusual, zebra-like migmatites, in the contact aureole of a layered pyroxenite–gabbro intrusion, in the root zone of an ocean island (Basal Complex, Fuerteventura, Canary Islands). These migmatites are characterised by a dense network of closely spaced, millimetre-wide leucocratic segregations. Their mineralogy consists of plagioclase (An_32–36), diopside, biotite, oxides (magnetite, ilmenite), +/− amphibole, dominated by plagioclase in the leucosome and diopside in the melanosome. The melanosome is almost completely recrystallised, with the preservation of large, relict igneous diopside phenocrysts in dyke centres. Comparison of whole-rock and mineral major- and trace-element data allowed us to assess the redistribution of elements between different mineral phases and generations during contact metamorphism and partial melting.

Dykes within and outside the thermal aureole behaved like closed chemical systems. Nevertheless, Zr, Hf, Y and REEs were internally redistributed, as deduced by comparing the trace element contents of the various diopside generations. Neocrystallised diopside – in the melanosome, leucosome and as epitaxial phenocryst rims – from the migmatite zone, are all enriched in Zr, Hf, Y and REEs compared to relict phenocrysts. This has been assigned to the liberation of trace elements on the breakdown of enriched primary minerals, kaersutite and sphene, on entering the thermal aureole. Major and trace element compositions of minerals in migmatite melanosomes and leucosomes are almost identical, pointing to a syn- or post-solidus reequilibration on the cooling of the migmatite terrain i.e. mineral–melt equilibria were reset to mineral–mineral equilibria.     

Geological structure, evolution stages, and petroliferous complexes of the Gulf of Mexico basin

The Gulf of Mexico basin occupies a vast region encompassing the southern continental margin of North America, a considerable part of the Greater Antilles, and the intervening Sigsbee Deep with the oceanic crust. In the north, the basin is contiguous with spurs of the Hercynian Appalachians, the Mississippi Interior and Permian basins. The Mississippi Fan, one of the largest in the world, governs the bottom topography and structure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The abyssal basin is surrounded in many areas by steep continental slopes passing in places into escarpments: Sigsbee, Campeche, and others. It is only in the Yucatan Peninsula region that the continental slope merges with a wide shelf. The Cuban-North Haiti meganticlinorium frames the basin on the Cuba Island side.