雄安新区地层及主要热储空间结构特征与地热水资源潜力

雄安新区中深层白云岩热储地热资源丰富,为了提高对该区主要热储白云岩热储特征及地热水资源潜力的认识程度,指导新区中深层白云岩热储地热水资源的规模化开发,基于钻井、地震、地质等资料,研究了该区白云岩热储的地层空间分布、构造特征、储集空间特征和主建设区白云岩热储地热水资源潜力。研究表明：雄安新区主要热储雾迷山组、高于庄组除在断裂面部分地区外基本全区分布;雾迷山组埋深在容城凸起、牛驼镇凸起相对较浅,在高阳低凸起相对较深;高于庄组有类似的分布特征,总体埋深更深,温度更高;其它地层除第四系、新近系明化镇组外分布都比较局限;区内发育众多以NNE向为主的正断层,与少数其它方向断裂交会,将深部地热通过流体传输到浅部,并造就断裂两侧大量的裂缝和控制岩溶发育方向及规模,形成众多溶蚀孔洞;同时构造演化中雾迷山组古地貌中高地貌部分,在喜山期大多剥蚀与新生界形成不整合面,共同构成本区重要的输导通道和储集空间,岩溶孔洞和裂缝结合型复合空间是本区雾迷山组主要热储空间,单独的裂缝、孔洞是次要热储空间,大型溶洞一旦发育往往是主力产水层;新区主建设区顶面在5000 m（底部埋深可达6000 m）及以浅的白云岩岩溶裂缝热储地热水资源,按100年采用总热水储量的50%及500 m井距“三采两灌”原则单井产量110 m³/h计,最适宜生产井布井数目233口,主建设区现阶段可满足每年4787×10⁴ m²的供暖面积,占实际需求的30.1%。结论认为：雾迷山组埋深较浅,在当前经济技术条件下目前是主力热储,高于庄组埋深较深是最重要的备用热储,今后20年内会被大规模开发利用,但即便现在同时开发它们也不能满足雄安新区主建设区的清洁能源需求,需要发展“多能互补”系统,域外的过剩地热资源能否向域内目标区集输受经济成本和环境成本风险制约。

     

300年来中国森林的变化

Based on historical documents, modern survey and statistics, as well as the result of predecessor studies, the trend and main process of forest dynamics are recognized. The forest area and forest coverage rates for each province of China from 1700 to 1949 are estimated backward by every 50 years. Linking the result with modern National Forest Inventory data, the spatial-temporal dynamics of Chinese forest in recent 300 years （AD 1700-1998） is quantitatively analyzed. The study shows that in recent 300 years, the forest area in current territory of China has declined by 0.95×10^8 hm^2 （or 9.2% of the coverage rate） in total, with a trend of decrease and recovery. Before the 1960s, there was a trend of accelerated descending. The forest area was reduced by 1.66×10^8 hm^2 （or 17% of the coverage rate） in 260 years. While after the 1960s, there has been a rapid increase. The forest area increased by 0.7×10^8 hm^2 （or 8% of the coverage rate） in 40 years. The study also shows that there is a significant spatial difference in the dynamics of forest. The amplitudes of increasing and decreasing in western China are both smaller than the ones in eastern China. During the rapid declining period from 1700 to 1949, the most serious decrease appeared in the Northeast, the Southwest and the Southeast, where the coverage rate in most provinces dropped over 20%. In Heilongjiang Province, the coverage rate dropped by 50%. In Jilin Province, it dropped by 36%. In Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality, it dropped by 42%. In Yunnan Province, it dropped by 35%. During the recovery period 1949-1998, the western provinces, municipality and autonomous regions, including Ningxia, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan-Chongqing, Yunnan, Tibet, Xinjiang and Qinghai, etc, the increase rates are all below 5%, while the eastern provinces, municipality and autonomous regions （except Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu-Shanghai） have achieved an increase over 5%, among which the Guangdong-Hainan, Guangxi, Anhui, Beijing-Tianjin-H     

一个动态植被模型在欧洲森林碳水循环模拟中的适应性评估研究

对动态全球植被模型M-SDGVM (Modified Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model), 在1996～1998年15个欧洲森林通量站碳通量和水汽通量的季节和年际变化进行模拟和评估研究, 总的来说, 模型能够合理再现各个站点春、 夏季节碳的吸收, 秋、 冬季节碳的释放, 以及水汽释放的季节变化趋势, 其中, 对水汽通量的模拟更为理想。对模型的上述适应性评估研究表明, 改进后的M-SDGVM有能力研究不同气候条件下欧洲森林生态系统碳、 水循环过程及其响应机制, 但是, 模型对部分站点的模拟仍存在不确定性, 通过对这些偏差及其可能的产生机理进行分析, 有助于模型的进一步发展和应用研究。     

河南春季一次云降水过程的宏微观物理特征分析

云降水的宏微观物理特征的观测和研究,有助于建立典型的云降水多尺度结构模型,为确定科学的人工增雨催化方案提供重要依据。借助于雷达、卫星等多种遥感探测手段,结合飞机的云中观测,对2004年3月31日河南云降水观测外场试验区（31.5-35°N,111-114°E）的一次云降水过程实施了综合探测,综合分析了此次云降水过程的宏微观物理特征。此次云降水系统属于比较典型的低槽、冷锋活动所造成的一次小至中雨过程。根据GOES卫星云图和天气图可以看出,沿锋面云系的后部,有一槽线,它对试验区的降水起主要作用,地面冷锋位于云带的前沿。雷达PPI回波显示为一条窄而长的回波带,宽度较窄,强度不大;RHI显示回波高度不高,回波云顶高度平均在5-6km左右,除存在一些20-30dBz的回波团外,回波强度比较均匀,回波中存在明显的0℃层亮带。这次降水为锋上高积云（Ac）和其下部液水较为丰沛的层积云（Sc）结合而成,在Ac云的4340m（-4.8℃）和3670m（0℃）液态水含量出现高值,分别为0.072g/m^3和0.086g/m^3,在Sc云中的0℃附近液态水含量出现高值。降水形成前,云中粒子谱型主要为单峰型,粒子直径大部分在5-10μm之间变化,大粒子浓度很低,不到0.1个/cm^3,且呈不连续分布,随着云中微物理过程的发展和降水的形成,粒子谱型逐渐转为双峰或多峰型,粒子浓度明显增高,粒子直径逐渐增大。     

江汉平原东北缘末次冰消期沉积物粒度特征及环境意义

麻城剖面位于江汉平原东北缘山地丘陵与平原过渡带半封闭的宽浅碟形洼地,是江汉平原北缘末次冰消期代表性沉积剖面.沉积环境主要由山麓坡洪积相和沼泽相组成,形成年代为距今18.00～8.60 ka.麻城剖面粒度组成主要以粉砂为主,达60.73％,其中,粗粉砂达40.83％.剖面粒度变化可划分为7个变化阶段.结合剖面的岩性与沉积...     

青海共和盆地早全新世古风向重建及其对黄土物源的指示

青藏高原东北部地处黄土与沙漠的过渡地区,在冰期-间冰期旋回中受中纬西风与东亚季风环流的交替控制,曾发生大范围的沙漠进退,是黄土高原重要的潜在物源区。恢复该区地质历史时期的大气环流格局可为重建东亚地区的环境面貌、探讨黄土高原的物源区、检验东亚地区古气候模拟结果的有效性等方面提供重要依据。但目前对高原东北部的古大气环流特征却鲜有研究。青藏高原东北部保存有一系列的古沙丘,可为古大气环流的重建提供直接依据。本文选取青海共和盆地一处代表性新月形古沙丘开展光释光测年研究,并通过其平面形态和前积层产状恢复了当时的古风向。结果表明:共和盆地的风沙活动自早全新世以来开始显著减弱,此时近地面盛行与现今风向一致的西北风。前人的研究揭示出青藏高原东北部在冰期时很可能盛行西风,并存在广泛的荒漠化,因而很可能是黄土高原冰期时重要的物源区之一。而本研究指示,该区的盛行风向在早全新世以来转变为西北风,且荒漠范围显著退缩,导致其全新世不再是黄土高原的物源区。青藏高原东北部的盛行风向和荒漠范围在冰期-间冰期旋回中的这种变化,为理解黄土高原的粉尘物源在空间和冰期-间冰期旋回上的变化提供了依据。     

面向地震巨灾保险的建筑特性快速提取方法

房屋建筑分类是抗震设计和地震风险分析的基础,是巨灾保险的纽带环节,也是结构易损性准确、完备分析的前驱保障,快速获取建筑特性参数非常关键。基于影像数据获取结构特性相比传统手段具有显著优势,然而其准确性具有一定挑战性,从影像数据得到实时的、较准确的结构特性成为地震保险数据获取技术的关注焦点。本文采用深度学习方法开展从影像数据中提取面向地震保险需求的建筑特性数据,构建基于深度学习方法的建筑高度识别模型和基于机器视觉的建筑高度识别方法,运用基于Xception神经网络深度学习和机器视觉的模型,对北京地区的建筑高度进行模型测试,该方法可为地震保险分析提供重要的基础数据支持。     

Numerical Observation of Three-Dimensional Wing Cracking of Cracked Chevron Notched Brazilian Disc Rock Specimen Subjected to Mixed Mode Loading

The cracked chevron notched Brazilian disc (CCNBD) specimen has been suggested by International Society for Rock Mechanics for measuring mode I fracture toughness of rocks. Subsequently, this specimen geometry has been widely extended to conduct mixed mode fracture tests on rocks as well. A straight through crack front during the fracturing process upon the root of the chevron notch is assumed in the testing principle, but has never been thoroughly evaluated before. In this study, for the first time, the progressive rock fracture mechanism of the CCNBD rock specimen under mixed mode loading is numerically simulated. Specimens under representative mixed mode loading angles are modelled; and the assumption of the straight through crack front growth is critically assessed. The results show that not only the notch tip but also the saw-cut chevron notch cracks during the experiments, yielding a prominent twisted front, far from being straight. The crack front never grows up to the root of the notch ligament and the straight through crack front assumption is never satisfied in the realistic rock fracture progress of this chevron notched specimen subjected to mixed mode loads. In contrast, the fracture progress features typical three-dimensional wing cracking towards the loading ends. The numerically observed progressive fracture mechanism reveals that the measuring principle of mixed mode fracture tests employing CCNBD specimens is significantly violated and the measures of both modes I and II fracture toughness are uncertain.