最优集合预报订正方法在客观温度预报中的应用

数值模式的直接输出预报在实际应用时常与实况产生一定的偏差,对模式预报进行有效的本地化订正是提高预报准确率的重要手段。以欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)模式细网格资料,采用最优集合(anolog ensemble,AnEn)预报订正方法对北京市各站1～7 d的日最高气温和日最低气温进行订正,并对相关参数进行了本地化。采用了滑动训练期、优化变量权重两种方案进行训练。检验评估结果表明:(1)滑动训练期采用60 d时能同时保证计算效率和预报准确率;采用最优变量权重方案后,与预报员主观预报准确率对比,AnEn的最低气温优于预报员主观预报,最高气温基本相当;增加训练期的长度(引入多年的历史资料)相比优化变量权重方案能更有效地提高预报准确率。(2)AnEn预报订正方法在改善数值模式预报的固有偏差(如对由数值模式对局地地形、边界层日变化等形成的误差)效果显著,有较好的应用价值;对于因局地天气(如霾、降水、大风等)影响下,AnEn的温度预报准确率虽优于ECMWF,但不如主观预报,未来还有改进空间。还对检验结果进行了时间和空间验证,确保在以后的业务尤其是智能网格预报业务中的运行效果。     

Construction of a metagenomic DNA library of sponge symbionts and screening of antibacterial metabolites

To study the bioactive metabolites produced by sponge-derived uncultured symbionts, a metagenomic DNA library of the symbionts of sponge Gelliodes gracilis was constructed. The average size of DNA inserts in the library was 20 kb. This library was screened for antibiotic activity using paper disc assaying. Two clones displayed the antibacterial activity against Micrococcus tetragenus. The metabolites of these two clones were analyzed through HPLC. The result showed that their metabolites were quite different from those of the host E. coli DH5α and the host containing vector pHZ132. This study may present a new approach to exploring bioactive metabolites of sponge symbionts.     

中国近海航空危险天气的气候特征

利用ICOADS和LIS OTD资料分析了中国近海航空危险天气—低能见度和海雾、低云和积雨云、大风和雷暴的气候特征。中国近海低能见度和海雾主要发生在5—7月黄海以及东海北部。渤海海雾发生频率较低,且大多限于渤海海峡附近,仅在7月扩展至渤海湾内。东海温州以南和南海海雾发生频率亦较低,且主要集中在1—5月沿岸海区。低云主要发生在东海,低云频发时段为11月至次年4月,其中1月低云频率最高,范围最广,分别向北和向南扩展至黄海北部和南海东北部。积雨云高频区主要位于西太平洋暖池所在区域,中国沿海积雨云出现频率较低。大风主要发生在东海和南海东北部,特别是台湾海峡和巴士海峡,大风频发时段为10月至次年3月。雷暴主要发生在沿岸海区,包括渤海西北部沿岸、山东南部和江苏北部沿岸以及南海北部沿岸。     

近20年来三峡水库水动力特性及其水环境效应研究：回顾与展望

三峡水库自2003年蓄水以来,水库干支流水环境状况及水华已成为广泛关注的问题,国内外不少学者对此开展了大量研究。本文回顾了近20年来三峡水库水环境相关研究,系统总结了三峡水库干支流水动力特征及其生态环境影响,并展望了三峡水库水动力相关研究的新视角、新内容、新方法、新技术。结果表明:(1)三峡水库蓄水后干支流水流分化特征明显,干流水体从上游的河流型水体逐渐转变为坝前的过渡型水体,而支流库湾则更偏向于湖泊型水体特征;(2)干支流密度差(温度差)驱动的分层异重流,水库日调节调度驱动的高频水流振荡,气象驱动的近表层水体混合是三峡水库支流库湾普遍存在的水动力现象,主导着支流库湾的水温分层和混合过程;(3)三峡水库特殊的水动力现象对支流库湾水温分层结构、营养盐输移补给、水华生消过程、温室气体排放等产生深远影响,应用生态调度调控支流库湾水动力过程来改善其水环境问题已成为该区域生态环境修复的重要技术手段。如何将上述新发现上升为具有三峡水库特色的系统理论与方法,并形成大型深水水库生态环境研究技术体系,服务于大型梯级水库群联合多目标优化调度实践,仍是今后努力的方向。     

东濮凹陷现今地温场分布特征

在9口井连续测温资料的基础上,对东濮凹陷现今地温场进行了研究。东濮凹陷的地温梯度代表值为34℃/km,平均大地热流值为58.4 mW/m²。现今地温场的展布主要受地质构造格局的控制,为北东—北北东向,与盆地构造走向一致,总体分布是相同层位东部次凹和西部次凹的地温高,中央隆起和西部斜坡带地温相对低。现今地温对烃源岩的油气生成有重要的控制作用,东部次凹和西部次凹的石炭-二叠系现今仍处于二次生烃阶段,是上古生界有利的二次生烃区。     

新密煤田翟沟井田山西组煤层特征及聚煤环境分析

以新密煤田翟沟井田勘探资料为基础,对井田区域特征、山西组煤层特征和沉积环境进行分析。研究表明：山西组下段为以泥坪＋泥炭沼泽＋泥坪沉积序列为主的潮坪沉积,山西组上段为以弱还原环境河流作用为主的三角洲沉积体系,山西组聚煤环境为滨岸潮坪环境;山西组二。煤层层位稳定,煤层结构简单,煤层厚度为0．82-12．20m,一般3—5m,平均厚度3．84m,煤层厚度的变化是受沉积环境、后期冲刷作用及构造作用综合作用的结果。     

The Seismic Induced Soft Sediment Deformation Structures in the Middle Jurassic of Western Qaidamu Basin

Intervals of soft-sediment deformation structures are well-exposed in Jurassic lacustrine deposits in the western Qaidamu basin. Through field observation, many soft-sediment deformation structures can be identified, such as convoluted bedding, liquefied sand veins, load and flame structures, slump structures and sliding-overlapping structures. Based on their genesis, soft-sediment deformation structures can be classified as three types: seismic induced structures, vertical loading structures, and horizontal shear structures. Based on their geometry and genesis analysis, they are seismic-induced structures. According to the characteristics of convoluted bedding structures and liquefied sand veins, it can be inferred that there were earthquakes greater than magnitude 6 in the study area during the middle Jurassic. Furthermore, the study of the slump structures and sliding-overlapping structures indicates that there was a southeastern slope during the middle Jurassic. Since the distance from the study area to the Altyn Mountain and the Altyn fault is no more than 10km, it can be also inferred that the Altyn Mountain existed then and that the Altyn strike-slip fault was active during the middle Jurassic.     

A method to estimate concentrations of surface-level particulate matter using satellite-based aerosol optical thickness

We propose a new method to estimate surface-level particulate matter(PM)concentrations by using satellite-retrieved Aerosol Optical Thickness(AOT).This method considers the distribution and variation of Planetary Boundary Layer(PBL)height and relative humidity(RH)at the regional scale.The method estimates surface-level particulate matter concentrations using the data simulated by an atmospheric boundary layer model RAMS and satellite-retrieved AOT.By incorporation MODIS AOT,PBL height and RH simulated by RAMS,this method is applied to estimate the surface-level PM 2.5 concentrations in North China region.The result is evaluated by using 16 ground-based observations deployed in the research region,and the result shows a good agreement between estimated PM 2.5 concentrations and observations,and the coefficient of determination R2 is 0.61 between the estimated PM 2.5 concentrations and the observations.In addition,surface-level PM 2.5 concentrations are also estimated by using MODIS AOT,ground-based LIDAR observations and RH measurements.A comparison between the two estimated PM 2.5 concentrations shows that the new method proposed in this paper is better than the traditional method.The coefficient of determination R2 is improved from 0.32 to 0.62.     

碎屑岩成像测井沉积学研究及其在海上油田的应用

基于成像测井技术在我国海域含油气盆地的应用积累,提出了碎屑岩成像测井沉积学的概念。碎屑岩成像测井沉积学的主要研究内容包括地层岩性识别、沉积构造解释、沉积序列与微相分析、砂体物源与古流向分析、砂体分布预测等五个方面。利用南海西部的实际资料,运用成像测井技术,对五方面的应用逐一分析或提出了应用前提、使用步骤、注意要点、已有规律特征以及典型实例。     

Cooling and exhumation of the oldest Sanqiliu uranium ore system in Motianling district,South China Block

The Sanqiliu uranium deposit belongs to a uranium ore system in Motianling district. It is the oldest uranium deposit in South China. Primary uranium mineralization occurred almost simultaneously with the emplacement of the host granites and subsequent dykes, and it has a relatively high grade of uranium (0.421%). We clarify the age of mineralization and investigate the cooling history through new pitchblende U–Pb and apatite fission‐track thermochronology. The pitchblende U–Pb results indicate that uranium mineralization occurred at ~801–759 Ma. Fractionation of uranium and lead at ~374–295 Ma is interpreted as remobilization and resetting of the original uranium. The Motianling area has apatite fission‐track ages of 57 to 18 Ma. By combining our results with previous work, we conclude that the deposit cooled slowly and was exposed at the surface during the Cenozoic. The timing and depth of exhumation helped to preserve and avoid erosion of the uranium deposit, and highlight the potential for regional uranium exploration.