Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (?22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.     

Sphalerite oxidation pathways detected by oxygen and sulfur isotope studies

Sphalerite oxidation is a common process under acid-mine drainage (AMD) conditions and results in the release of , Zn and potentially toxic trace metals, which can pollute rivers and oceans. However, there are only a few studies on the mechanisms of aerobic sphalerite oxidation. Oxygen and S isotope investigations of the produced may contribute to the understanding of sphalerite oxidation mechanisms so helping to interpret field data from AMD sites. Therefore, batch oxidation experiments with an Fe-rich sphalerite were performed under aerobic abiotic conditions at different initial pH values (2 and 6) for different lengths of time (2–100 days). The O and S isotope composition of the produced indicated changing oxidation pathways during the experiments. During the first 20 days of the experiments at both initial pH values, molecular O₂ was the exclusive O source of . Furthermore, the lack of S isotope enrichment processes between and sphalerite indicated that O₂ was the electron acceptor from sphalerite S. As the oxidation proceeded, a sufficient amount of released Fe(II) was oxidized to Fe(III) by O₂. Therefore, electrons could be transferred from sphalerite S sites to adsorbed hydrous Fe(III) and O from the hydration sphere of Fe was incorporated into the produced as indicated by decreasing δ¹⁸O_SO4 values which became more similar to the δ¹⁸O_H2O values. The enrichment of ³²S in relative to the sphalerite may also result from sphalerite oxidation by Fe(III).The incorporation of O₂ into during the oxidation of sphalerite was associated with an O isotope enrichment factor ε_SO4–O2 of ca. −22‰. The O isotope enrichment factor ε_SO4–H2O was determined to be ?4.1‰. A comparison with O and S studies of other sulfides suggests that there is no general oxidation mechanism for acid-soluble sulfides.     

HILLS AS RESOURCES AND RESISTANCES IN SYRACUSE,NEW YORK*

In an example of what William Freudenburg and his colleagues called the “conjoint construction” of nature and society, hills may represent either assets or liabilities for urban settlement, depending on the period and the activities involved. The relationships between terrain and land use in Syracuse, New York, since the late eighteenth century fall into three major eras. The initial phase, in which settlement largely shunned the lowlands, gave way in the 1820s to one in which canals and railroads stimulated development of the lowlands and in which most land uses, save those of the classic urban fringe, avoided the uplands. A new pattern appeared in the late nineteenth century with the arrival of the electric trolley and the automobile and with provision of a municipal water supply able to reach the city's high ground. Development since then has been consistent with Ernest Burgess's 1929 model of “the poor in the valleys, the well‐to‐do on the hillslopes, and the rich on the hilltops.”     

Long‐term spruce budworm outbreak dynamics reconstructed from subfossil trees

We reconstructed the long‐term spruce budworm (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreak dynamics in the boreal forest of Quebec (Canada) using a dendrochronological approach with subfossil trees. Although the majority of the excavated wood belonging to the genus Picea could potentially reveal the past activity of spruce budworms in the tree rings, very few were cross‐dated due to a lack of marker rings. All cross‐dated trees were found within a particular zone of the peat bogs and the floating chronology was radiocarbon dated to ca. 5.1 cal ka BP. The results presented in this study suggest that the dynamics of SBW outbreaks in the studied area fluctuated during the last millennia and that severe outbreaks as observed during the 20th century seldom occurred in that part of the boreal forest since the end of the last glaciation. These results are in agreement with observations from other parts of eastern North America. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implementing the WSSD decision of restoring marine ecosystems by 2015—scientific information support in the public domain

Among the relatively few decisions taken by heads of States and government at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in September 2002 in Johannesburg, South Africa, was the time-bound objective to restore degraded stocks to productive levels in its Plan of Implementation. The paper examines the evidence leading to this decision and the broadening of cognitive maps it implies. In particular, it documents how public archiving of research results and other knowledge sources particularly those accessible through the FishBase (www.fishbase.org) and Sea Around Us (www.seaaroundus.org) websites has been effective in enabling citizens in addition to specialist publics to counteract shifting baselines and monitor progress against the WSSD plan. The increased targeting and cost-effectiveness of research efforts and the social benefits of public research spending this implies militates for the extension of such approaches to other groups as an enabling mechanism for WSSD decisions on restoring marine ecosystems by 2015.     

GRI: focusing on the evolving violent universe

The gamma-ray imager (GRI) is a novel mission concept that will provide an unprecedented sensitivity leap in the soft gamma-ray domain by using for the first time a focusing lens built of Laue diffracting crystals. The lens will cover an energy band from 200–1,300 keV with an effective area reaching 600 cm². It will be complemented by a single reflection multilayer coated mirror, extending the GRI energy band into the hard X-ray regime, down to ∼10 keV. The concentrated photons will be collected by a position sensitive pixelised CZT stack detector. We estimate continuum sensitivities of better than 10^− 7 ph cm^− 2s^− 1keV^− 1 for a 100 ks exposure; the narrow line sensitivity will be better than 3 × 10^− 6 ph cm^− 2s^− 1 for the same integration time. As focusing instrument, GRI will have an angular resolution of better than 30 arcsec within a field of view of roughly 5 arcmin—an unprecedented achievement in the gamma-ray domain. Owing to the large focal length of 100 m of the lens and the mirror, the optics and detector will be placed on two separate spacecrafts flying in formation in a high elliptical orbit. R&D work to enable the lens focusing technology and to develop the required focal plane detector is currently underway, financed by ASI, CNES, ESA, and the Spanish Ministery of Education and Science. The GRI mission has been proposed as class M mission for ESAs Cosmic Vision 2015–2025 program. GRI will allow studies of particle acceleration processes and explosion physics in unprecedented detail, providing essential clues on the innermost nature of the most violent and most energetic processes in the universe. All authors are on behalf of a large international collaboration The GRI mission has been proposed as an international collaboration between (in alphabetical order) Belgium (CSR), China (IHEP, Tsinghua Univ.), Denmark (DNSC, Southern Univ.), France (CESR, APC, ILL, CSNSM, IAP, LAM), Germany (MPE), Ireland (UCD School of Physics), Italy (INAF/IASF Rome, Bologna, Milano, Palermo; INAF/OA Brera, Roma; UNIFE, CNR/IMEM), Poland (NCAC), Portugal (Combra Univ., Evora Univ.), Russia (SINP, MSU, Ioffe Inst.), Spain (IEEC-CSIC-IFAE, CNM-IMB), the Netherlands (SRON, Utrecht Univ.), Turkey (Sabanci Univ.), United Kingdom (Univ. of Southampton, MSSL, RAL, Edinburgh Univ.), and the United States of America (SSL UC Berkeley, Argonne National Lab., MSFC, GSFC, US NRL).     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE SOUTH-EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO

The south-eastern United States and Gulf Coast of Mexico is physiographically diverse, although dominated by a broad coastal plain. Much of the region has a humid, warm temperate climate with little seasonality in precipitation but strong seasonality in runoff owing to high rates of summer evapotranspiration. The climate of southern Florida and eastern Mexico is subtropical with a distinct summer wet season and winter dry season. Regional climate models suggest that climate change resulting from a doubling of the pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO₂ may increase annual air temperatures by 3–4°C. Changes in precipitation are highly uncertain, but the most probable scenario shows higher levels over all but the northern, interior portions of the region, with increases primarily occurring in summer and occurring as more intense or clustered storms. Despite the increases in precipitation, runoff is likely to decline over much of the region owing to increases in evapotranspiration exceeding increases in precipitation. Only in Florida and the Gulf Coast areas of the US and Mexico are precipitation increases likely to exceed evapotranspiration increases, producing an increase in runoff. However, increases in storm intensity and clustering are likely to result in more extreme hydrographs, with larger peaks in flow but lower baseflows and longer periods of drought. The ecological effects of climate change on freshwaters of the region include: (1) a general increase in rates of primary production, organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling as a result of higher temperatures and longer growing seasons: (2) reduction in habitat for cool water species, particularly fish and macroinvertebrates in Appalachian streams; (3) reduction in water quality and in suitable habitat in summer owing to lower baseflows and intensification of the temperature–dissolved oxygen squeeze in many rivers and reservoirs; (4) reduction in organic matter storage and loss of organisms during more intense flushing events in some streams and wetlands; (5) shorter periods of inundation of riparian wetlands and greater drying of wetland soils, particularly in northern and inland areas; (6) expansion of subtropical species northwards, including several non-native nuisance species currently confined to southern Florida; (7) expansion of wetlands in Florida and coastal Mexico, but increase in eutrophication of Florida lakes as a result of greater runoff from urban and agricultural areas; and (8) changes in the flushing rate of estuaries that would alter their salinity regimes, stratification and water quality as well as influence productivity in the Gulf of Mexico. Many of the expected climate change effects will exacerbate current anthropogenic stresses on the region's freshwater systems, including increasing demands for water, increasing waste heat loadings and land use changes that alter the quantity and quality of runoff to streams and reservoirs. Research is needed especially in several critical areas: long-term monitoring of key hydrological, chemical and biological properties (particularly water balances in small, forested catchments and temperature-sensitive species); experimental studies of the effects of warming on organisms and ecosystem processes under realistic conditions (e.g. in situ heating experiments); studies of the effects of natural hydrological variation on biological communities; and assessment of the effects of water management activities on organisms and ecosystem processes, including development and testing of management and restoration strategies designed to counteract changes in climate. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.