Success and failure in Newton's lunar theory

Alan Cook analyses where Newton's theory of the Moon's motion went wrong, and argues that this 17th century attempt at a solution still has value today.     

Origin and age of The Hillocks and implications for post‐glacial landscape development in the upper Lake Wakatipu catchment,New Zealand

Ambiguous landscape histories can arise from equivocal or incomplete geomorphological, sedimentological or geochronological evidence. In this study, we apply quantitative analyses to robustly assess the origin and age of a field of rounded mounds, known as ‘The Hillocks’. Using clast analysis, the sediment is shown to be consistent with a landslide origin but inconsistent with other glacial sediments in the region. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be exposure age dating suggests The Hillocks formed ~8 ka. Ground‐penetrating radar reveals that the deposit rests upon deltaic foreset beds; combined with topographical data, we calculate a deposit volume of ~15–27 M m³, consistent with the estimated volume of the proposed source area. Overall, our data support a rock avalanche origin, indicating that by 8 ka the valley was ice‐free at The Hillocks’ location, and the level of Lake Wakatipu was lower than 340 m asl by this time. The Dart River delta shoreline was situated somewhere between The Hillocks and the present day shoreline at that time, and has prograded at a maximum average rate of 1 m a^?1 since ~8 ka. These findings are significant given the lack of landforms by which to constrain glacial or post‐glacial landscape histories in this region of New Zealand. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of cold air surges on rainfall variability in the Sahel and wet African tropics: a multi-scale analysis

Satellite-derived rainfall estimates and the ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to better understand cold air surge/precipitation interactions and to identify the implications for rainfall variability in the Sahel and tropical Africa on synoptic to seasonal timescales. At the synoptic timescale, cold air surges are associated with cold conditions over the eastern Sahara throughout the year due to the eastward passage of surface low pressure systems over the Mediterranean and the subsequent ridging over northern Africa. Rainfall decreases over central and eastern Africa approximately 4–5 days after the cold air first arrives in northeastern Africa. These precipitation anomalies persist for 4 or more days. At the seasonal timescale, a significant relationship between eastern Saharan low-level temperatures and rainfall in the Sahel and tropical Africa is identified, with colder conditions associated with reduced convection on the northern flank of the primary convergence zone, and vice versa. During boreal winter, the anomalous rainfall occurs over tropical Africa (0°N–8°N). During the summer, rainfall anomalies associated with cold air surges occur over the Sahel (10°N–16°N). These relationships are mediated by anomalous anticyclonic flow over northwestern Africa and western Europe. The analysis shows that cold air surges are significantly associated with summertime cooling over the Sahara, but less so during the winter.     

How well are daily intense rainfall events captured by current climate models over Africa?

The ability of state-of-the-art climate models to capture the mean spatial and temporal characteristics of daily intense rainfall events over Africa is evaluated by analyzing regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 90- and 30-km along with output from four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5. Daily intense rainfall events are extracted at grid point scale using a 95th percentile threshold approach applied to all rainy days (i.e., daily rainfall ≥1 mm day^?1) over the 1998–2008 period for which two satellite-derived precipitation products are available. Both RCM simulations provide similar results. They accurately capture the spatial and temporal characteristics of intense events, while they tend to overestimate their number and underestimate their intensity. The skill of AGCMs and AOGCMs is generally similar over the African continent and similar to previous global climate model generations. The majority of the AGCMs and AOGCMs greatly overestimate the frequency of intense events, particularly in the tropics, generally fail at simulating the observed intensity, and systematically overestimate their spatial coverage. The RCM performs at least as well as the most accurate global climate model, demonstrating a clear added value to general circulation model simulations and the usefulness of regional modeling for investigating the physics leading to intense events and their change under global warming.     

Irrigation induced surface cooling in the context of modern and increased greenhouse gas forcing

There is evidence that expected warming trends from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have been locally ??masked?? by irrigation induced cooling, and it is uncertain how the magnitude of this irrigation masking effect will change in the future. Using an irrigation dataset integrated into a global general circulation model, we investigate the equilibrium magnitude of irrigation induced cooling under modern (Year 2000) and increased (A1B Scenario, Year 2050) GHG forcing, using modern irrigation rates in both scenarios. For the modern scenario, the cooling is largest over North America, India, the Middle East, and East Asia. Under increased GHG forcing, this cooling effect largely disappears over North America, remains relatively unchanged over India, and intensifies over parts of China and the Middle East. For North America, irrigation significantly increases precipitation under modern GHG forcing; this precipitation enhancement largely disappears under A1B forcing, reducing total latent heat fluxes and the overall irrigation cooling effect. Over India, irrigation rates are high enough to keep pace with increased evaporative demand from the increased GHG forcing and the magnitude of the cooling is maintained. Over China, GHG forcing reduces precipitation and shifts the region to a drier evaporative regime, leading to a relatively increased impact of additional water from irrigation on the surface energy balance. Irrigation enhances precipitation in the Middle East under increased GHG forcing, increasing total latent heat fluxes and enhancing the irrigation cooling effect. Ultimately, the extent to which irrigation will continue to compensate for the warming from increased GHG forcing will primarily depend on changes in the background evaporative regime, secondary irrigation effects (e.g. clouds, precipitation), and the ability of societies to maintain (or increase) current irrigation rates.     

The potential to reconstruct broadscale climate indices associated with southeast Australian droughts from Athrotaxis species, Tasmania

Occurrence of drought and dry periods in southeastern Australia has been linked to broad scale climate phenomena including the Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and persistence of blocking high pressure in the Tasman Sea. We examine relationships between Athrotaxis tree ring chronologies from southern Australia extending over much of the past millennia and these broad scale indices. We also examine relationships between the chronologies, temperature, precipitation and a standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index. Timing of significant correlations with maximum temperature varies between species. The responses of the species with broadscale indices vary with location: northern Athrotaxis cupressoides (Pencil Pine) are more strongly related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) than southern sites. As an exception to this, a site in the far south had significant correlations with both the SOI and IPO, opposite in sign to those observed for the northern sites. Significant spectral power at frequencies consistent with the SOI and IPO occur in all chronologies. Western and southern sites are more strongly related to a seasonalised index of SAM. These three systems have played important roles in determining moisture conditions in southeastern Australia over the past millennium. Results suggest that reconstructions of the SOI, IPO or SAM are unlikely based solely on this Athrotaxis network. The Athrotaxis network of tree ring sites, is however, likely to be an important input to multi-proxy models reconstructing the SOI, IPO or SAM in the Australian sector. The Athrotaxis network of sites is also an important extension of the existing network of Australian tree ring sites that could be used to reconstruct historical drought in southeastern Australia.     

AGU新出版地球系统模拟杂志

美国地球物理联合会（AGU）很高兴地宣布,AGU不久将成为《地球系统模拟进展杂志》（Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,JAMES）新的出版机构。JAMES是一份同行评议、开放获取、全电子化的杂志,通过提供高质量的学术研究论文推动地球系统模拟科学的发展。     

Interannual variability of East African rainfall: role of seasonal transitions of the low-level cross-equatorial flow

Climate Dynamics - During boreal spring and fall, the low-level cross-equatorial flow along the East African coast weakens and reverses. These transition periods are embedded within the East...