Large and small numbers: options for quantifying the costs of extremes on transport now and in 40 years

The past 15 years has been characterized by a high density of record-breaking weather extremes in Europe. These include the extratropical cyclones Lothar, Kyrill and Xynthia across western and mid Europe; the major floods in the UK, Germany and eastern Europe; the heat waves in 2003 and 2007 and, after a long period of mild winters, the heavy winter seasons in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Inspired by the rising trends in weather-related damages worldwide and the studies on the topic carried out in overseas, the EC funded the sister projects such as Weather Extremes-Assessing the Impacts on Transport and Hazards for European Regions (WEATHER), EWENT and ECCONET to determine the magnitude of current and future risks to the European transport sector and to assess suitable adaptation strategies. This paper presents the assessment framework of the WEATHER project and the results of weather-inflicted damage costs now and in 2040–2050. Total annual damages are found to be around €2.5 billion, which largely attribute to road traffic. However, broken down to passenger and ton kilometers the highest risk is borne by rail traffic due to its expensive infrastructures and its comparably complex operating structure. This indication even amplifies when looking four decades ahead: while average road transport costs will only raise by 7 % due to milder winters, rail traffic costs may increase by up to 80 % due to more floods and less predictable winter periods. A comparison with the results of the EWENT study uncovers a high range of uncertainty concerning methodological approaches and data treatment. Thus, the final figures might even be much higher.     

Dielectric properties of iron-bearing trioctahedral phyllosilicates

Measurements of the real part of conductivity (σ′) and dielectric function (?′) were performed on large crystal flakes of biotite (Moen) and vermiculite (Benahavis), at variable frequencies (0.1 to 1000 kHz) and as a function of temperature (300 K<T<900 K). By heating, cooling and repeated heating experiments under inert atmospheric conditions effects involving water (H₂O) diffusion and electrical transport were separated. The effect of dehydration dominates the functional dependence of ?′ on T at frequencies below about 100 kHz, within the first heating run. Six dehydration steps for vermiculite Benahavis and two broad features for biotite Moen are observed, the water being transported effectively only in the interlayers. Electrical transport occurs along Fe paths within the octahedral layers and can be described by σ′=σ_dc+A·w^s. Values of s are between 0.45 and 0.8. σ_dc shows a temperature dependence according to exp(?E_a(T)/kT) with E_a(T) between 0.3 and 0.6 eV. E_a is suggested to be composed of a polaron plus disorder contribution.     

Total Solar Irradiance Variation During Rapid Sunspot Growth

Large sunspot areas correspond to dips in the total solar irradiance (TSI), a phenomenon associated with the local suppression of convective energy transport in the spot region. This results in a strong correlation between sunspot area and TSI. During the growth phase of a sunspot other physics may affect this correlation; if the physical growth of the sunspot resulted in surface flows affecting the temperature, for example, we might expect to see an anomalous variation in TSI. In this paper we study NOAA active region 8179, in which large sunspots suddenly appeared near disk center, at a time (March 1998) when few competing sunspots or plage regions were present on the visible hemisphere. We find that the area/TSI correlation does not significantly differ from the expected pattern of correlation, a result consistent with a large thermal conductivity in solar convection zone. In addition we have searched for a smaller-scale effect by analyzing white-light images from MDI (the Michelson Doppler Imager) on SOHO. A representative upper-limit energy consistent with the images is on the order of 3×10³¹ ergs, assuming the time scale of the actual spot area growth. This is of the same order of magnitude as the buoyant energy of the spot emergence even if it is shallow. We suggest that detailed image analyses of sunspot growth may therefore show `transient bright rings' at a detectable level.     

IN-FLIGHT PERFORMANCE OF THE VIRGO LUMINOSITY OSCILLATIONS IMAGER ABOARD SOHO

The Luminosity Oscillations Imager (LOI) is a part of the VIRGO instrument aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The scientific objective of the LOI experiment is to identify and characterize pressure and internal gravity oscillations of the Sun by observing the radiance variations. The LOI is a low-resolution imager with 12 pixels, for the measurement of the radiance distribution over the solar disk at 500 nm. The low resolution capability of the instrument allows the identification of individual azimuthal orders for l = 0 to 7, without suffering the mixing that affects integrated solar disk instruments. The performance, calibrations and instrumental effects of the LOI are described together with the procedures for extracting the solar p modes.     

Circumstellar nebulae around Ofpe/WN9 stars

New high resolution echelle observations of Ofpe/WN9 stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud have been obtained in the wavelength region 4000 - 8000 Å. We find that five Ofpe/WN9 stars display in their spectra nebular emission lines [NII], [SII] and also [OIII], previously unreported for BE381 and S119. At least in these two cases we can conclude that the stars are surrounded by an associated nebula, thus strengthening the relationship between Ofpe/WN9 stars and LBVs.     

Astrodynamical Space Test of Relativity using Optical Devices I (ASTROD I)—a class-M fundamental physics mission proposal for cosmic vision 2015–2025: 2010 Update

ASTROD I is a planned interplanetary space mission with multiple goals. The primary aims are: to test General Relativity with an improvement in sensitivity of over 3 orders of magnitude, improving our understanding of gravity and aiding the development of a new quantum gravity theory; to measure key solar system parameters with increased accuracy, advancing solar physics and our knowledge of the solar system; and to measure the time rate of change of the gravitational constant with an order of magnitude improvement and the anomalous Pioneer acceleration, thereby probing dark matter and dark energy gravitationally. It is envisaged as the first in a series of ASTROD missions. ASTROD I will consist of one spacecraft carrying a telescope, four lasers, two event timers and a clock. Two-way, two-wavelength laser pulse ranging will be used between the spacecraft in a solar orbit and deep space laser stations on Earth, to achieve the ASTROD I goals.For this mission, accurate pulse timing with an ultra-stable clock, and a drag-free spacecraft with reliable inertial sensor are required. T2L2 has demonstrated the required accurate pulse timing; rubidium clock on board Galileo has mostly demonstrated the required clock stability; the accelerometer on board GOCE has paved the way for achieving the reliable inertial sensor; the demonstration of LISA Pathfinder will provide an excellent platform for the implementation of the ASTROD I drag-free spacecraft. These European activities comprise the pillars for building up the mission and make the technologies needed ready. A second mission, ASTROD or ASTROD-GW (depending on the results of ASTROD I), is envisaged as a three-spacecraft mission which, in the case of ASTROD, would test General Relativity to one part per billion, enable detection of solar g-modes, measure the solar Lense-Thirring effect to 10 parts per million, and probe gravitational waves at frequencies below the LISA bandwidth, or in the case of ASTROD-GW, would be dedicated to probe gravitational waves at frequencies below the LISA bandwidth to 100?nHz and to detect solar g-mode oscillations. In the third phase (Super-ASTROD), larger orbits could be implemented to map the outer solar system and to probe primordial gravitational-waves at frequencies below the ASTROD bandwidth. This paper on ASTROD I is based on our 2010 proposal submitted for the ESA call for class-M mission proposals, and is a sequel and an update to our previous paper (Appouchaux et al., Exp Astron 23:491?C527, 2009; designated as Paper I) which was based on our last proposal submitted for the 2007 ESA call. In this paper, we present our orbit selection with one Venus swing-by together with orbit simulation. In Paper I, our orbit choice is with two Venus swing-bys. The present choice takes shorter time (about 250?days) to reach the opposite side of the Sun. We also present a preliminary design of the optical bench, and elaborate on the solar physics goals with the radiation monitor payload. We discuss telescope size, trade-offs of drag-free sensitivities, thermal issues and present an outlook.