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Effect of Aftershocks on Earthquake Hazard Estimation: An Example from the North Anatolian Fault Zone

In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (_m, b and M_max) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (M_max, the seismic activity rate (_m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate _m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.     

Seeing Conditions at Sutherland. Results of the 1992/93 seeing campaign

In order to decide whether the seeing conditions at SAAO/Sutherland justify the erection of a 3.5 m telescope and also to compare Sutherland with the Gamsberg/Namibia site, a seeing campaign covering 15 months has been carried out. For direct comparison with the results of the seeing campaign at Gamsberg twenty years before the same QUESTAR telescope was employed. The seeing is determined by the scattering of the star-trail exposed on a film in the focal plane of the telescope. The campaign commenced in February 1992. Up to May 1993, data for 204 nights, that is 47.3% of the total number of nights, were collected. Due to wind speeds above 30 km h^-1, 25 out of the 204 nights were not considered in the final reduction. The useful 179 nights are evenly distributed over the campaign period. The median seeing value for the whole period is = 0.52. There are differences during the year: the best season gives = 0.42, the worst = 0.67. Each night was divided into three intervals, although data for each of the three intervals were not always available. Generally, there is an improvement in the seeing during the course of a night. The results are compared to the seeing values of Gamsberg/Namibia and ESO/La Silla.     

North-south asymmetries in the green corona brightness between 1947 and 1976

The north-south asymmetry has been studied using the green emission corona brightness in the period of 1947–1976. (N - S)/(N + S) values are constructed with the 5-deg opposite coronal belts brightnesses between ± 5 and ± 60 deg. Power spectra analyses were performed to study periodicities of these (N - S)/(N + S) values. Two noticeable periodicities (14.5 and 5 yr) have been found.     

The motion of a lunar satellite

Presented in this theory is a semianalytical solution for the problem of the motion of a satellite in orbit around the moon. The principal perturbations on such a body are due to the nonspherical gravity field of the moon, the attraction of the earth, and, to a lesser degree, the attraction of the sun. The major part of the problem is solved by means of the celebrated von Zeipel Method, first successfully applied to the motion of an artificial earth satellite by Brouwer in 1959. After eliminating from the Hamiltonian all terms with the period of the satellite and those with the period of the moon, it is suggested to solve the remaining problem with the aid of numerical integration of the modified equations of motion.This theory was written in 1964 and presented as a dissertation to Yale University in 1965. Since then a great deal has been learned about the gravity field of the moon. It seems that quite a number of recently determined gravity coefficients would qualify as small quantities of order two. Hence, according to the truncation criteria employed, they should be considered in the present theory. However, the author has not endeavored to update the work accordingly. The final results, therefore, are incomplete in the lunar gravitational perturbations. Nevertheless, the theory does give the largest such variations and it does present the methods by which perturbations may be derived for any gravity terms not actually developed.     

Planetary elements for 10 000 000 years

In 1950 Brouwer and van Woerkom published a secular theory of the variations of the planetary elements in analytical form. In the present paper we provide a graphical representation of this theory in the form of element plots for a time span of ten million years.     

On some flare-sensitive high photospheric and low chromospheric lines

During a stay at the Kitt Peak National Observatory the writer has tried to find an influence of flare radiation on the high photospheric and low chromospheric lines of the area occupied by the flare. Observations have been made in the H region and in the region of the H and K lines. When flare emission is present in sunspots some of the faint (molecular) lines seem to be weakened. When a flare appears near the solar limb some of the Evershed-type (chromospheric) lines are strongly influenced.Kitt Peak National Observatory Contribution No. 481.Visiting Astronomer to the Solar Division, Kitt Peak National Observatory, operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

The use of transplanted cultured tropical oysters (Saccostrea commercialis) to monitor Cd levels in North Queensland coastal waters (Australia)

Bivalves are commonly used to detect metal pollution in the marine environment. Commercially cultured Milky oysters (Saccostrea commercialis) were transplanted in various sites along the North Queensland coast and analyzed for two metals of potentially anthropogenic origin (Cd, Zn). To provide additional information, naturally occurring Black Lip oysters (Saccostrea echinata) were also collected at the transplantation sites. The study demonstrated that the oysters species transplanted are good bioindicators of these metal concentrations in tropical waters, sensitive to variations in the environment at concentrations which are much smaller than pollution signals commonly reported for temperate waters. Three transplant experiments were carried out from May 1999 to February 2000. Milky oysters transplanted to offshore areas (Orpheus Is., Kelso Reef) accumulated Cd in the soft parts whereas oysters sampled from cages placed in Ross Creek and the Herbert River estuaries showed a decrease in Cd concentration, which resulted from an increase in dry weight. Dry weight appeared to be an important covariant affecting Cd concentration in the oysters whereas it does not unambiguously affect Zn concentrations. For the duration of the experiments, oysters sampled from the Magnetic Is. reference site showed effectively constant Cd concentrations and total Cd contents which indicates that any seasonal cycle affecting metal concentration is weak. It was found that Cd accumulation in oysters increased as ambient dissolved Cd concentration decreased, from which it was concluded that for these oysters, the predominant source of Cd was from the particulate phase rather than the dissolved phase.     

Map-Based Exploratory Evaluation of Non-Medical Determinants of Population Health

Multi‐criteria evaluation (MCE) and decision‐making are increasingly combined with interactive tools to assist users with visual thinking and exploring decision strategies. The interactive control of criterion combination rules and the simultaneous observation of geographic space and criterion space provide a means of investigating the sensitivity of the decision outcome to the decision‐maker's preferences. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is an MCE method that has been successfully implemented in management processes including those addressed by Geographic Information Systems. In this paper, we present a map‐based, interactive AHP implementation, which provides a link between a well‐understood decision support method and exploratory geographic visualization. Using a case study with public health data for the Province of Ontario, Canada, we demonstrate that exploratory map use increases the effectiveness of the AHP‐based evaluation of population health.     

Structure of the crust and upper mantle beneath the central european rift system

The crustal structure of the central European rift system has been investigated by seismic methods with varying success. Only a few investigations deal with the upper-mantle structure. Beneath the Rhinegraben the Moho is elevated, with a minimum depth of 25 km. Below the flanks it is a first-order discontinuity, while within the graben it is replaced by a transition zone with the strongest velocity gradient at 20–22 km depth. An anomalously high velocity of up to 8.6 km/s seems to exist within the underlying upper mantle at 40–50 km depth. A similar structure is also found beneath the Limagnegraben and the young volcanic zones within the Massif Central of France, but the velocity within the upper mantle at 40–50 km depth seems to be slightly lower. Here, the total crustal thickness reaches only 25 km. The crystalline crust becomes extremely thin beneath the southern Rhônegraben, where the sediments reach a thickness of about 10 km while the Moho is found at 24 km depth. The pronounced crustal thinning does not continue along the entire graben system. North of the Rhinegraben in particular the typical graben structure is interrupted by the Rhenohercynian zone with a “normal” West-European crust of 30 km thickness evident beneath the north-trending Hessische Senke. A single-ended profile again indicates a graben-like crustal structure west of the Leinegraben north of the Rhenohercynian zone. No details are available for the North German Plain where the central European rift system disappears beneath a sedimentary sequence of more than 10 km thickness.