Post-earthquake estimates of different ground motion intensity measures for the 2012 Emilia earthquake

Estimates of the earthquake ground motion intensity over a geographical area have multiple uses, that is, emergency management, civil protection and seismic fragility assessment. In particular, with reference to fragility assessment, it is of interest to have estimates of the values of different ground-motion intensity measures in order to correlate them with the observed damage. To this purpose, the present paper uses a procedure recently proposed in the literature to estimate the ground-motion intensity for the 2012 Emilia mainshocks, considering different ground motion intensity measures and directionality effects. Ground motion prediction equations based on different site effect models, and spatial correlation models are calibrated for the Emilia earthquakes. The paper discusses the accuracy of the shakemaps obtained using the different soil effect models considered and presents the obtained shakemaps as supplementary material. The procedure presented in the paper is aimed at providing ground motion intensity values for seismic fragility assessment and is not intended as a tool to estimate shakemaps for rapid emergency assessment.     

Upslope-climbing shelf-edge clinoforms and the stepwise evolution of the northern European glaciation (lower Pleistocene Eridanos Delta system,U.K. North Sea): When sediment supply overwhelms accommodation

Clinoforms are basinward-dipping and accreting palaeo-bathymetric profiles that record palaeo-environmental conditions and processes; thus, clinothems represent natural palaeo-archives. Here, we document shelf-edge scale clinoform sets which prograded through the entire width of an epicontinental marine basin (ca. 400 km), eventually encroaching onto the opposite basin flank, where they started to prograde upslope and landward, in defiance of gravity (“upslope-climbing clinoforms”). The giant westward-prograding Eridanos muddy shelf-edge clinothem originated from the Baltic hinterland in the Oligocene and achieved maximum regression in the Early Pleistocene, on the UK Central Graben (CG) and Mid North Sea High (MNSH), after crossing the whole North Sea mesopelagic depocentre and causing near complete basin infill. Here we integrate well and seismic data through the MNSH and CG and examine the Eridanos final heyday and demise, identifying five clinothem complexes (A1, A2, A3, B and C) and six depositional sequence boundaries (SB1 to SB6) in the Miocene-Recent section. Tectonic and climatic events drove the recent evolution of this system. Early Pleistocene climate cooling, in particular, resulted in a stepwise increase in sediment supply. This climaxed in the earliest Calabrian, following a likely Eburonian eustatic fall (=SB3) when the Eridanos clastic wedge was restructured from a 100–300 m thick compound shelf-edge and delta system to a “hybrid” shelf-edge delta at sequence boundary SB3 (ca. 1.75 Ma). In the ca. 40 kyr that followed SB3, a progradation rate peak (>1,000 m/kyr) is associated with clinoforms starting to accrete upslope, onto the east-dipping slope between CG and MNSH. This “upslope-climbing clinoform” phase was quickly followed by the maximum regression and final retreat of the Eridanos system in the Early Calabrian (=SB4), likely as the result of climate-driven changes in the Baltic hinterland and/or delta auto-retreat. To our knowledge, this contributions represents the first documentation of “upslope-climbing clinoforms” recorded in the stratigraphic record.     

Soft proton flux on <Emphasis Type="Italic">ATHENA</Emphasis> focal plane and its impact on the magnetic diverter design

The experience gained with the current generation of X-ray telescopes like Chandra and XMM-Newton has shown that low energy “soft” protons can pose a severe threat to the possibility to exploit scientific data, reducing the available exposure times by up to 50% and introducing a poorly reproducible background component. These soft protons are present in orbits outside the radiation belts and enter the mirrors, being concentrated towards the focal plane instruments, losing energy along their path and finally depositing their remaining energy in the detectors. Their contribution to the residual background will be even higher for ATHENA with respect to previous missions, given the much higher collecting area of the mirrors, even if the instruments will likely suffer no significant radiation damage from this particles flux. As a consequence this soft proton flux shall be damped with the use of a magnetic diverter to avoid excess background loading on the WFI or X-IFU instruments. We present here a first complete evaluation of this background component for the two focal plane instruments of the ATHENA mission in absence of a magnetic diverter, and derive the requirements for such device to reduce the soft protons induced background below the level required to enable the mission science. We estimate the soft proton flux expected in L2 for the interplanetary component and for the component generated locally by acceleration processes in the magnetotail. We produce a proton response matrix for each of the two instruments of ATHENA focal plane, exploiting two independent Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the optics concentration efficiency, and Geant4 simulations to evaluate the energy loss inside the radiation filters and deposited in the detector. With this modular approach we derive the expected fluxes and spectra for the soft protons component of the background. Finally, we calculate the specifics of a magnetic diverter able to reduce such flux below the required level for both X-IFU and WFI.     

The circular restricted three-body problem in curvilinear coordinates

We derive the exact equations of motion for the circular restricted three-body problem in cylindrical curvilinear coordinates together with a number of useful analytical relations linking curvilinear coordinates and classical orbital elements. The equations of motion can be seen as a generalization of Hill’s problem after including all neglected nonlinear terms. As an application of the method, we obtain a new expression for the averaged third-body disturbing function including eccentricity and inclination terms. We employ the latter to study the dynamics of the guiding center for the problem of circular coorbital motion providing an extension of some results in the literature.     

Integrating GIS and Data Visualization Tools for Distributed Hydrologic Modeling

Distributed hydrologic models are an integral component of spatial decision support systems for watershed management. At these basin (and larger) scales, a common problem in hydrology and other environmental sciences arises from the need to cope with the increasingly sophisticated models and software tools that are used in the management, processing, and analysis of large volumes of data collected from advanced in situ and remote monitoring instruments. The diversity of these tools, and the need for experts and non-experts alike to be able to easily use them, suggests a non-trivial integration problem of building customized systems from disparate (and in many cases proprietary) components. In this paper we address the systems integration problem within the context of a study of surface-subsurface-atmosphere interactions involving soil moisture remote sensing and hydrologic simulation. The simple early steps that were taken highlight the role of the different components and tools in the integration effort. An alternative approach is presented for creating an integrated system, based on a data flow model with the modular components linked within a flexible framework. An example is developed based on established systems integration techniques from the field of computer aided design.     

Vertical distribution of barnacle larvae at a fixed nearshore station in southern California: Stage-specific and diel patterns

Patterns of vertical distribution in marine invertebrate larvae interact with coastal hydrodynamics to determine cross-shore distributions, dispersal ranges, and scales of connectivity among populations. We present observations on the vertical distribution of barnacle larvae from southern California, collected from 3 depth intervals every 2 h and over a 48-h period at a fixed nearshore station. Larvae were identified to species and stage of development, and their vertical distributions were tested for day/night and between-stage differences within each species, as well as for correlations with environmental variability. Stage-specific patterns of vertical distribution were distinct and consistent across species. Nauplii were most abundant near the surface at all times, and were numerically dominated by Chthamalus spp. (78% of N_n = 1835). Cyprids were substantially less abundant than nauplii in our samples (N_c = 146) and corresponded mostly to the subtidal barnacle Balanus nubilus (84%). Despite the lower counts and different species composition, our data suggest that cyprids remain within the mid-depth and bottom layers, and that changes in their mean depth of distribution (MDD) may track changes in pycnocline depth. Temporal changes in nauplii MDD were not correlated with water-column variability, wind forcing, or tidal height. The apparent vertical segregation of nauplii and cyprids may be related to previously documented differences in the cross-shore distribution of these stages.     

Analysis of the bias between TOPEX and GPS vTEC determinations

The TOPEX/Poseidon satellite was jointly developed and deployed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), USA, and the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), France (for details see Chelton et al. In: Fu L-L, Cazenave A (eds) International geophysics series, vol 69, ISBN 0-12-269545-3, Academic Press, CA, pp 1–131, 2001), with the main scientific goal of sea surface height monitoring. The process that ends with the TOPEX main observable (the range between the satellite and the sea surface) involves the measurement of several parameters of the radar pulses reflected by the sea surface and the computation of several other corrections. After several calibration campaigns performed by the Calibration/Validation team of the mission, it was found that TOPEX range determinations were systematically shorter than expected and it was decided to add an empirical correction of +15 mm to the TOPEX range-computation algorithm. As a by-product, TOPEX provides vertical total electron content (vTEC) determinations which have turned out to be a very important data source for the ionospheric research community. Since TOPEX vTEC measurements became available, several comparison studies have detected a constant bias, from +2 to +5 TECu, when TOPEX is compared to other vTEC sources, e.g., Global Positioning System (GPS), Doppler Orbitography and Radio-positioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS), (TOPEX always greater than the others). In this work, we show that miscalibration of the corrections used in the TOPEX processing algorithm can cause the shortening effect of TOPEX ranges and at the same time the constant bias on the TOPEX vTEC values. It is also shown that changes on TOPEX System Biases of less than 10 mm for the Ku-band and between 40 and 70 mm for the C-band, can make both effects disappear. The analyzed hypothesis is supported by theoretical considerations and data analysis available in the specialized literature. On behalf of the authors of the contribution ‘Analysis of the bias between TOPEX and GPS vTEC determinations’, I declare that the paper has not been, nor is in the process of being published in any other publication.     

A nonlinear model of parametric rolling stabilization by anti-roll tanks

The present paper describes a mathematical model in which the fluid motion inside a U-tank is nonlinearly coupled to the heave, roll and pitch motions of the ship. The main purpose of the investigation is centred on the control of roll motion in the case of parametric resonance in longitudinal waves. A transom stern small vessel, known to be quite prone to parametric amplification, is employed in the study. Four tank designs are employed in order to study the influence of tank mass, tank natural frequency and tank internal damping on the control of parametric rolling at different head seas conditions. Additionally, the influence of the vertical position of the tank is also investigated. The main results are presented in the form of limits of stability, with encounter frequency and wave amplitudes as parameters. Distinct dynamical characteristics are discussed and conclusions are drawn on the relevant parameters for the efficient control of the roll amplifications in head seas.     

Orbit covariance propagation via quadratic-order state transition matrix in curvilinear coordinates

In this paper, an analytical second-order state transition matrix (STM) for relative motion in curvilinear coordinates is presented and applied to the problem of orbit uncertainty propagation in nearly circular orbits (eccentricity smaller than 0.1). The matrix is obtained by linearization around a second-order analytical approximation of the relative motion recently proposed by one of the authors and can be seen as a second-order extension of the curvilinear Clohessy–Wiltshire (C–W) solution. The accuracy of the uncertainty propagation is assessed by comparison with numerical results based on Monte Carlo propagation of a high-fidelity model including geopotential and third-body perturbations. Results show that the proposed STM can greatly improve the accuracy of the predicted relative state: the average error is found to be at least one order of magnitude smaller compared to the curvilinear C–W solution. In addition, the effect of environmental perturbations on the uncertainty propagation is shown to be negligible up to several revolutions in the geostationary region and for a few revolutions in low Earth orbit in the worst case.