Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.     

Modelling of ground motion in the vicinity of massive structures

A two-dimensional elastic Chebyshev spectral element method (SPEM) is used to model the seismic wavefield within a massive structure and in its vicinity. We consider 2-D models where a linear elastic structure, with quadrangular cross-section, resting on an elastic homogeneous half-space, is impinged upon by the waves generated by a surface impulse at some distance. The scattering of Rayleigh waves and the response of the structure are extensively analysed in a parametric way, varying size, mechanical parameters and shape of the load. Some of the models considered are representative of embankments and earth dams. The simulation shows that some models resonate, storing part of the incoming energy. With realistic parameters, the lowest resonance frequency is due to pure shear deformation and is controlled by the shear velocity and height of the load. Flexural modes are excited only at higher frequencies. The acceleration at the top of the structure may be five/seven times higher than at the base, depending on the mass of the structure. The gradual release of trapped energy produces a ground roll lasting several seconds after the wave front has passed. The ground-roll amplitude depends on the sturcture's mass and can be as large as 30% of the peak acceleration. Outside resonance conditions, the ground motion is almost unaffected by the presence of the artefact; the horizontal motion on top of it is nearly twice the motion at ground level. Similar results should be expected when the incident field is an upcoming shear wave. A qualitative discussion shows that the presence of anelastic attenuation in the embankment does not significantly alter the preceding conclusions, unless it is of very low values (e.g. Q < 15).The modelling results that we discuss indicate that the soil-structure interaction may substantially alter the ‘free-field’ ground motion. From a practical point of view, the main conclusions are: (1) careful analysis is necessary when interpreting seismic records collected in the vicinity of large artefacts; (2) seismic hazard at a site may depend on the presence of man-made structures such as embankments, dams, tall and massive buildings.     

Impact of grid resolution on the integrated and distributed response of a coupled surface–subsurface hydrological model for the des Anglais catchment,Quebec

Digital elevation models (DEMs) at different resolutions (180, 360, and 720 m) are used to examine the impact of different levels of landscape representation on the hydrological response of a 690‐km² catchment in southern Quebec. Frequency distributions of local slope, plan curvature, and drainage area are calculated for each grid size resolution. This landscape analysis reveals that DEM grid size significantly affects computed topographic attributes, which in turn explains some of the differences in the hydrological simulations. The simulations that are then carried out, using a coupled, process‐based model of surface and subsurface flow, examine the effects of grid size on both the integrated response of the catchment (discharge at the main outlet and at two internal points) and the distributed response (water table depth, surface saturation, and soil water storage). The results indicate that discharge volumes increase as the DEM is coarsened, and that coarser DEMs are also wetter overall in terms of water table depth and soil water storage. The reasons for these trends include an increase in the total drainage area of the catchment for larger DEM cell sizes, due to aggregation effects at the boundary cells of the catchment, and to a decrease in local slope and plan curvature variations, which in turn limits the capacity of the watershed to transmit water downslope and laterally. The results obtained also show that grid resolution effects are less pronounced during dry periods when soil moisture dynamics are mostly controlled by vertical fluxes of evaporation and percolation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity analysis of CDOM spectral slope in artificial and natural samples: an application in the central eastern Mediterranean Basin

In the past two decades, optical properties of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in marine environments have been extensively studied. Many of these studies report CDOM properties for the offshore environment where this complex mixture of optically active compounds is strongly diluted. Nevertheless, autochthonous and allochthonous sources have been identified and sinks related to photodegradation and bacterial activity have been demonstrated. The calculation of the spectral slope of the CDOM absorption curve has been proven to be useful and is often reported. However, a rigorous uncertainty analysis of the slope calculation is rarely reported. In this paper, we propose a method to evaluate the uncertainty of CDOM spectral slope calculated between 270 and 400 nm, using both naturally sampled and artificial solutions. We use these results to study the ultra-oligotrophic waters of the Mediterranean Sea (central eastern basin), where little is known about CDOM spatial distribution. We show that dilutions of both artificial and natural samples produce a Gaussian distribution of spectral slopes, indicating that consistent values may be determined, with a typical uncertainty of ±0.0004 nm⁻¹ when absorption at 300 nm was greater then 0.1 m⁻¹ (0.1 m pathlength). Comparing the distribution of spectral slopes from central eastern basin samples to a Gaussian distribution, we show differences between measurements that were significantly different. These values allow us to distinguish possible sources (algal derived CDOM), sinks (e.g. photo-bleaching) at different depths. We propose a subdivision of CDOM compounds into refractory and semilabile/refractory pools and evaluate the CDOM spectral slope of algal derived CDOM released at or near deep chlorophyll maximum.     

Environmental conditions for gravelly and pebbly dunes and sorted bedforms on a moderate-energy inner shelf (Marettimo Island,Italy, western Mediterranean)

Side scan sonar records, sediment textural characteristics, and in-situ field observations were used to study gravelly and pebbly dunes and sorted bedforms on the inner shelf of Marettimo Island, along the northwestern Sicilian shelf. The dunes are composed of coarse sands, gravels and pebbles (D50: 2–16 mm), displaying a symmetrical shape with a wavelength in the range of 1–2.5 m and a height of 0.15–0.30 m. The bedforms are distributed in a patchy pattern in a depth range of 10–50 m, and are described for the first time on a Mediterranean inner shelf. Sorted bedforms are linear morphological features developed almost perpendicular to the coast in the eastern sector of the island between 15 and 50 m water depth. Bottom shear stresses required for sediment entrainment and the generation of the shallower dunes can be reached during strong storms (Hs=5–6 m; Tp=9–11 s), which are not common in the Mediterranean Sea. However, wave storm events recorded in the study area during the last 17 years are not able to generate the coarsest and deeper dunes, suggesting that the stirring mechanism for dune formation is associated with severe storms that have a recurrence interval of more than 17 years. The long-term stability of the coarse bedforms is supported by the permanence of sorted bedforms without significant morphological changes for long periods (>13 years). Therefore, it is shown that processes forming coarse bedforms can occur in tideless and moderate-energy settings like those of the Mediterranean continental shelves, although the morphological features are probably less dynamic and remain unaltered for longer periods than on higher-energy shelves.     

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.     

Interactive effects of environmental variability and human impacts on the long-term dynamics of an Amazonian floodplain lake and a South Atlantic coastal lagoon

Human activities are exposing freshwater ecosystems to a wide range of stressors, whose direct and indirect effects can be alleviated or exacerbated through interactive effects with dynamic environmental drivers. This study used long-term data from two Neotropical lacustrine freshwater systems (Batata Lake, an Amazonian floodplain lake and Imboassica lagoon, an Atlantic coastal lagoon) subjected to different kinds of environmental fluctuations (i.e., flood pulse and sandbar opening) and anthropogenic impacts (i.e., siltation and eutrophication). Our objective was to determine whether the effects of human perturbations are contingent on modifications of important biotic and abiotic characteristics through environmental variability. For both ecosystems, environmental variability consistently interacted with anthropogenic perturbations to alter most of the variables analyzed, such as nutrient dynamics, chlorophyll-a concentration, zooplankton and benthic invertebrate species richness, and temporal community stability, which indicates that interactive effects between environmental variability and anthropogenic perturbations may impact a myriad of ecosystem properties. Furthermore, the nature of these interactive effects was highly dependent on the variable considered and on the ecosystem analyzed. For example, at Imboassica lagoon, sandbar openings interacted synergistically with trophic state to increase the phosphorus concentration in the water column. At Batata Lake, flooding generally alleviated the negative effects of siltation on species richness by both diluting inorganic suspended material concentration and by promoting local recruitment from the regional species pool. Such results indicate that our ability to understand and predict the outcome of anthropogenic impacts on inland aquatic systems can be hampered if we consider human stressors as “static” phenomena disconnected from dynamic interactions with major local environmental drivers.     

Geographic variations in shell growth rates of the mussel Diplodon chilensis from temperate lakes of Chile: Implications for biodiversity conservation

The Chilean lake district includes diverse lentic ecosystems along ca. 700 km of the country (36°–43°S), including the “Nahuelbutan lakes”, “Araucanian lakes” and “Chiloe lakes”. This area is recognized as an important “hot spot” of benthic freshwater biodiversity in Southern South America. In Chilean temperate lakes, increased nutrient loads of P and N caused eutrophication, particularly in the Nahuelbutan Lakes. The freshwater Hyriidae mussel Diplodon chilensis (Gray, 1828) which is one of the most abundant species in Chilean temperate lakes, is known to be very susceptible to eutrophication. This species presents a clear reduction in its geographic ranges and is considered to be a threatened species in many Chilean lakes. In this study, we used a correlative approach to determine how eutrophication-driven changes in the food supply and in geographical parameters of different Chilean lakes affected the shell growth rates of D. chilensis. The results obtained from sclerochronological analyses of the mussel shells suggest an association with a group of environmental variables, including geographical types (negative), such as latitude and altitude, and limnological types (positive), especially phosphorous and turbidity. However, the D. chilensis populations under extreme conditions of turbidity in eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes are extinct or nearly so. The high positive correlation of the mean D. chilensis growth rates with orthophosphate (R=0.76; P<0.05), in relation to dissolved inorganic nitrogen, suggests that P is the major limiting factor of the primary productivity in Chilean temperate lakes. We discuss some implications of our results in terms of the conservation of biodiversity in temperate lake ecosystems at different taxonomic levels.