Great South Bay After Sandy: Changes in Circulation and Flushing due to New Inlet

The coastal ocean model FVCOM is applied to quantify the changes in circulation, flushing, and exposure time in Great South Bay, New York, after Superstorm Sandy breached the barrier island in 2012. Since then, the lagoon system is connected to the Atlantic via five instead of four inlets. The model simulations are run on two high-resolution unstructured grids, one for the pre-breach configuration, one including the new inlet, with tidal-only forcing, and summer and winter forcing conditions. Despite its small cross-sectional size, the breach has a relatively large net inflow that leads to a strengthening of the along-bay through-flow in Great South Bay (GSB); the tidally driven volume transport in central GSB quadrupled. The seasonal forcing scenarios show that the southwesterly sea breeze in summer slows down the tidally driven flow, while the forcing conditions in winter are highly variable, and the circulation is dependent on wind direction and offshore sea level. Changes in flushing and exposure time associated with the modified transport patterns are evaluated using a Eulerian passive tracer technique. Results show that the new inlet produced a significant decrease in flushing time (approximately 35% reduction under summer wind conditions and 20% reduction under winter wind conditions). Maps of exposure time reflect the local changes in circulation and flushing.     

A Rhaetian microvertebrate fauna from Stowey Quarry,Somerset, U.K.

Rhaetian bone beds have been described from many locations in south-west England, around Bristol. One site that has never been reported is Stowey Quarry, some 13?km south of Bristol. This quarry yielded Lias, and revealed thin Rhaetian units in the quarry floor, including two bone beds, the basal Rhaetian bone bed, and a second, higher bone bed, also within the Westbury Formation. The fossil fauna of both includes elements typical of Rhaetian bone beds elsewhere, but showing differences in faunal composition between the two. The basal bone bed yielded more specimens and more species, with three taxa (Sargodon tomicus, Rhomphaiodon minor and Hybodus cloacinus) exclusive to this bed and eleven identified in total. Severnichthys acuminatus accounts for more than 50% of the countable teeth from the basal bone bed, followed by Gyrolepis albertii with 20%, Lissodus minimus with 14% and Rhomphaiodon minor with 9%. The basal bone bed, as ever, is dominated by chondrichthyans, whereas the upper bone bed is dominated by osteichthyans, which form 90% of the non-dental remains. The only unique taxon is Dapedium, and Gyrolepis albertii is the most abundant species with 45% of countable teeth, followed by Severnichthys acuminatus with 38% and Duffinselache holwellensis with 11%. These faunal differences, and the equally good condition of specimens between both samples confirms that the upper bone bed is independent of the basal bone bed, and is not a reworked subsample.     

A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...     

The impact of overfishing and El Niño on the condition factor and reproductive success of Peruvian hake, Merluccius gayi peruanus

In this study we examine physiological responses of Peruvian hake (Merluccius gayi peruanus) to changes in their population structure and physical environment during the period 1971–2004. In particular, we assess the relative investment of energy in growth and/or reproduction of small (20–35 cm) and large (35–50 cm) hake. We calculated the (i) condition (Fulton’s K), (ii) gonad and (iii) gut fullness indices for 42,761 female hakes sampled from commercial landings; these indices indicate fish somatic, reproductive and feeding condition, respectively. Using Generalized Additive Models we then examined potential relationships between these indices and sea surface temperature anomalies and date. Drastic energy exhaustion and a decrease in female hake fecundity were observed during El Niño events. The long-term trend showed a general increase in condition factor and a decrease in gonad index for large hake between 1971 and 2004. Small hake exhibited a different trend with an increase in reproductive activity, which was accompanied by an earlier maturation. We hypothesise that the observed low investment of energy in reproduction by large female hake might be related to the lack of large males, due to a sex-selective fishery and the impact of El Niño. We suggest that fishing diminished hake reproductive capacity, modified the sex ratio in favour of females and increased population vulnerability to environmental stress, in particular to the El Niño. The impact of multidecadal variability and predators like the squid, Dosidicus gigas, remain unresolved until longer time series become available.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

The influence of a mature cyclonic eddy on particle export in the lee of Hawaii

Mesoscale eddies may enhance primary production (PP) in the open ocean by bringing nutrient-rich deep waters into the euphotic zone, potentially leading to increased transport of particles to depth. This hypothesis remains controversial, however, due to a paucity of direct particle export measurements. In this study, we investigated particle dynamics using ²³⁴Th–²³⁸U disequilibria within a mesoscale cold-core eddy, Cyclone Opal, which formed in the lee of the Hawaiian Islands. ²³⁴Th samples were collected along two transects across Cyclone Opal as well as during a time-series within the eddy core during a decaying diatom bloom. Particulate carbon (PC), particulate nitrogen (PN) and biogenic silica (bSiO₂) fluxes at 150 m varied spatially and temporally within the eddy and strongly depended on the ²³⁴Th model formulation used (e.g., steady state versus non-steady state, inclusion of upwelling, etc.). Particle fluxes estimated from a steady state model assuming an upwelling rate of 2 m day⁻¹ yielded the best fit to sediment-trap data. These ²³⁴Th-derived particle fluxes ranged from 332±14 to 1719±53 μmol C m⁻² day⁻¹, 27±3 to 114±12 μmol N m⁻² day⁻¹, and 33±20 to 309±73 μmol Si m⁻² day⁻¹. Although PP rates within Cyclone Opal were elevated by a factor of 2–3, PC and PN fluxes were the same, within error, inside and outside of Cyclone Opal. The ratio of PC export to PP remained surprisingly low at <0.03 and similar to those measured in surrounding waters. In contrast, bSiO₂ fluxes within the eddy core were three times higher. Detailed analyses of ²³⁴Th depth profiles consistently showed excess ²³⁴Th at 100–175 m, associated with the remineralization and possible accumulation of suspended and dissolved organic matter from the surface. We suggest that strong microzooplankton grazing facilitated particulate organic matter recycling and resulted in the export of empty diatom frustules. Thus, while eddies may increase PP, they do not necessarily increase PC and PN export to deep waters. This may be a general characteristic of wind-driven cyclonic eddies of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre and suggests that eddies may preferentially act as a silica pump, thereby playing an important role in promoting silicic-acid limitation in the region.     

Topographic effects observed at Amatrice hill during the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence

The estimate of seismic site effects by experimental approaches is based on different assumptions aimed at simplifying the complex actual site conditions and related uncertainties.However,the reliability of the results can increase if the experimental data is focused on quite strong seismic sequences and the on-site acquisition of a large number of signals is deemed strategic for the assessment of the expected phenomena.Based on these considerations,the ground motion at the Red Zone sector of Amatrice hill,violently struck by the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence,was analyzed via an observational approach.A large set of weak motions(moment magnitude Mw 2.5-3.9)was analyzed in this study by means of standard(SSR)and horizontal to vertical(HVSR)spectral ratio techniques.The results from the experimental analysis of the site effects by using weak motion and noise signals show a significant amplification at the top of Amatrice hill with a remarkable polarization of the motion and changes in spectral shapes according to the topographic setting of the relief.     

Phase correlations in chaotic dynamics: a Shannon entropy measure

In the present work, we investigate phase correlations by recourse to the Shannon entropy. Using theoretical arguments, we show that the entropy provides an accurate measure of phase correlations in any dynamical system, in particular when dealing with a chaotic diffusion process. We apply this approach to different low-dimensional maps in order to show that indeed the entropy is very sensitive to the presence of correlations among the successive values of angular variables, even when it is weak. Later on, we apply this approach to unveil strong correlations in the time evolution of the phases involved in the Arnold’s Hamiltonian that lead to anomalous diffusion, particularly when the perturbation parameters are comparatively large. The obtained results allow us to discuss the validity of several approximations and assumptions usually introduced to derive a local diffusion coefficient in multidimensional near-integrable Hamiltonian systems, in particular the so-called reduced stochasticity approximation.