Volcanoes and human history

The study of volcanic hazards leads inevitably to questions of how past cultures have lived in volcanically active regions of the world. Here we summarize linkages between volcanological, archaeological and anthropological studies of historic and prehistoric volcanic eruptions, with the goal of evaluating the impact of past eruptions on human populations to better prepare for future events. We use examples from papers collected in this volume to illustrate ways in which volcanological studies aid archaeological investigations by providing basic stratigraphic markers and information about the nature and timing of specific volcanic events. We then turn to archaeological perspectives, which provide physical evidence of the direct impacts of volcanic eruptions, such as site abandonment and human migration, as well as indirect impacts on local cultures as reflected in human artifacts. Finally we review anthropological studies of societal responses to past and recent volcanic eruptions. We pay particular attention to both the psychological impact of catastrophic events and records of these impacts encoded within oral traditions. Taken together these studies record drastic short-term eruption impacts but adaptation to volcanic activity over the longer term, largely through strategies of adaptive land use.     

The dual-beam mini-DOAS technique—measurements of volcanic gas emission,plume height and plume speed with a single instrument

The largest error in determining volcanic gas fluxes using ground based optical remote sensing instruments is typically the determination of the plume speed, and in the case of fixed scanning instruments also the plume height. We here present a newly developed technique capable of measuring plume height, plume speed and gas flux using one single instrument by simultaneously collecting scattered sunlight in two directions. The angle between the two measurement directions is fixed, removing the need for time consuming in-field calibrations. The plume height and gas flux is measured by traversing the plume and the plume speed is measured by performing a stationary measurement underneath the plume. The instrument was tested in a field campaign in May 2005 at Mt. Etna, Italy, where the measured results are compared to wind fields derived from a meso-scale meteorological model (MM5). The test and comparison show that the instrument is functioning and capable of estimating wind speed at the plume height.     

Tomographic reconstruction of gas plumes using scanning DOAS

This paper presents a method to reconstruct the gas distribution inside a vertical cross section of a gas plume by combining data from two or more scanning DOAS instruments using a tomographic algorithm. The method can be applied to gas plumes from any single, elevated point source, such as a volcano or industrial chimney. Such two-dimensional concentration distributions may prove to be useful for example in plume chemistry, dispersion and environmental impact studies. Here we show the case with one scanning DOAS instrument located on each side of the plume, which is the easiest and most economic setup as well as the most useful in routine monitoring of e.g. volcanic gas emissions. The paper investigates the conditions under which tomographic reconstructions can be performed and discusses limitations of this setup. The proposed method has been studied theoretically by numerical simulations and has been experimentally tested during two field campaigns, with measurements of SO₂ emissions from a volcano and a power plant. The simulations show that, under good measurement conditions, the algorithm presented performs well, which is further confirmed by the experimental results.     

Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations,and an update on the latest model simulations

We review the ideas behind the pattern scaling technique, and focus on its value and limitations given its use for impact assessment and within integrated assessment models. We present estimates of patterns for temperature and precipitation change from the latest transient simulations available from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on multi-model mean patterns, and characterizing the sources of variability of these patterns across models and scenarios. The patterns are compared to those obtained from the previous set of experiments, under CMIP3. We estimate the significance of the emerging differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 results through a bootstrap exercise, while also taking into account the fundamental differences in scenario and model ensemble composition. All in all, the robustness of the geographical features in patterns of temperature and precipitation, when computed as multi-model means, is confirmed by this comparison. The intensity of the change (in both the warmer and cooler areas with respect to global temperature change, and the drier and wetter regions) is overall heightened per degree of global warming in the ensemble mean of the new simulations. The presence of stabilized scenarios in the new set of simulations allows investigation of the performance of the technique once the system has gotten close to equilibrium. Overall, the well established validity of the technique in approximating the forced signal of change under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is confirmed.     

Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961–1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071–2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions.     

Advances and Practices on the Research,Prevention and Control of Land Subsidence in Coastal Cities

Land subsidence severely threatens most of the coastal plains around the world where high productive industrial and agricultural activities and urban centers are concentrated. Coastal subsidence damages infrastructures and exacerbates the effect of the sea-level rise at regional scale. Although it is a well-known process, there is still much more to be improved on the monitoring, mapping and modeling of ground movements, as well as the understanding of controlling mechanisms. The International Geoscience Programme recently approved an international project (IGCP 663) aiming to bring together worldwide researchers to share expertise on subsidence processes typically occurring in coastal areas and cities, including basic research, monitoring and observation, modelling and management. In this paper, we provide the research communities and potential stakeholders with the basic information to join the participating teams in developing this project. Specifically, major advances on coastal subsidence studies and information on well-known and new case studies of land subsidence in China, Italy, The Netherlands, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand are highlighted and summarized. Meanwhile, the networking, dissemination, annual meeting and field trip are briefly introduced.     

Risk perception and decision-making: do farmers consider risks from climate change?

This paper provides one of the first empirical studies that examine the impact of climate change adaptation practices on technical efficiency (TE) among smallholder farmers in Nepal. An adaptation index is used to explore the impact of farmers’ adaptation on TE using the stochastic frontier analysis framework. Data for six districts of Nepal representing all three agro-ecological regions (terai, hill, and mountain) were collected from a focus group discussion, a stakeholder workshop and a household survey. The survey shows that about 91% of the farming households have adopted at least one practice to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change. Empirical results reveal that adaptation is an important factor explaining efficiency differentials among farming households. Those adopting a greater number of adaptation practices on a larger scale are, on average, found to be 13% more technically efficient than those adopting fewer practices on smaller scale. The empirical results also show that average TE is only 0.72, indicating that there are opportunities for farming households in Nepal to further improve productive efficiency, on average by 28%. Other important factors that explain variations in the productive efficiency across farming households include farmer’s education level, irrigation facilities, market access, and social capital such as farmer’s participations in relevant agricultural organizations and clubs. This study provides empirical evidence to policy makers that small scale adjustments made by farmers in response to climate change impacts are effective in improving farmers’ efficiency in agriculture production. This indicates a need for farmers’ involvement in climate change adaptation planning.     

Sedimentary provenance in the central Ribeira belt based on laser-ablation ICPMSPb/Pb zircon ages

²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages from 420 zircons from 9 upper amphibolite and granulite facies quartzites of the post-1.8 Ga metasedimentary cover from the Occidental and Oriental terranes from the Neoproterozoic central Ribeira belt, in eastern Brazil, are discussed. Ages from the Occidental terrane show that Proterozoic ages predominate with a modal class at 2.1–2.2 Ga and that Archean ages are less common and lie within the 2.5–3.6 Ga range. A wider dispersion on Proterozoic ages down to 1.1 Ga and youngest Neoproterozoic ages (550–700 Ma) were also observed and could be related to the Brasiliano/PanAfrican metamorphic events. The data show that detrital sediments of the Occidental terrane were derived predominantly from erosion of a 1.8–2.2 Ga Paleoproterozoic terrane with a small proportion of a 2.6–3.6 Ga Archean crust. Ages from the Oriental terrane are greatly dispersed, but show a significant proportion of ages between 1.7 and 2.1 Ga, although the great majority are between 0.5 and 1.6 Ga. Only 3 out of 144 grains yield Archean ages, between 2.5 and 2.9 Ga. Based on the greatest errors observed on the data from the Oriental Terrane (100–300 Ma), and a continuum of obtained ages between 2072 Ma (Paleoproterozoic) and 517 Ma (Cambrian), the more plausible interpretation is that the dispersion of ages results from partial resetting of the U–Pb system by Brasiliano metamorphism in Proterozoic–Archean zircons, although a Mesoproterozoic source could not be discarded.     

The ecological implications of a Yakutian mammoth's last meal

Part of a large male woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) was preserved in permafrost in northern Yakutia. It was radiocarbon dated to ca. 18,500 ¹⁴C yr BP (ca. 22,500 cal yr BP). Dung from the lower intestine was subjected to a multiproxy array of microscopic, chemical, and molecular techniques to reconstruct the diet, the season of death, and the paleoenvironment. Pollen and plant macro-remains showed that grasses and sedges were the main food, with considerable amounts of dwarf willow twigs and a variety of herbs and mosses. Analyses of 110-bp fragments of the plastid rbcL gene amplified from DNA and of organic compounds supplemented the microscopic identifications. Fruit-bodies of dung-inhabiting Ascomycete fungi which develop after at least one week of exposure to air were found inside the intestine. Therefore the mammoth had eaten dung. It was probably mammoth dung as no bile acids were detected among the fecal biomarkers analysed. The plant assemblage and the presence of the first spring vessels of terminal tree-rings of dwarf willows indicated that the animal died in early spring. The mammoth lived in extensive cold treeless grassland vegetation interspersed with wetter, more productive meadows. The study demonstrated the paleoecological potential of several biochemical analytical techniques.     

Combination of multi-mission altimetry data along the Mekong River with spatio-temporal kriging

River water-level time series at fixed geographical locations, so-called virtual stations, have been computed from single altimeter crossings for many years. Their temporal resolution is limited by the repeat cycle of the individual altimetry missions. The combination of all altimetry measurements along a river enables computing a water-level time series with improved temporal and spatial resolutions. This study uses the geostatistical method of spatio-temporal ordinary kriging to link multi-mission altimetry data along the Mekong River. The required covariance models reflecting the water flow are estimated based on empirical covariance values between altimetry observations at various locations. In this study, two covariance models are developed and tested in the case of the Mekong River: a stationary and a non-stationary covariance model. The proposed approach predicts water-level time series at different locations along the Mekong River with a temporal resolution of 5 days. Validation is performed against in situ data from four gauging stations, yielding RMS differences between 0.82 and 1.29 m and squared correlation coefficients between 0.89 and 0.94. Both models produce comparable results when used for combining data from Envisat, Jason-1, and SARAL for the time period between 2002 and 2015. The quality of the predicted time series turns out to be robust against a possibly decreasing availability of altimetry mission data. This demonstrates that our method is able to close the data gap between the end of the Envisat and the launch of the SARAL mission with interpolated time series.