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41.
Gustavo?Bastos?Lyra Tamíres?Partelli?Correia José?Francisco?de?Oliveira-Júnior Marcelo?ZeriEmail authorView authors OrcID profile 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(3-4):955-965
Five deterministic methods of spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall were compared over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The methods were the inverse distance weight (IDW), nearest neighbor (NRN), triangulation with linear interpolation (TLI), natural neighbor (NN), and spline tension (SPT). A set of 110 weather stations was used to test the methods. The selection of stations had two criteria: time series longer than 20 years and period of data from 1960 to 2009. The methods were evaluated using cross-validation, linear regression between values observed and interpolated, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (r 2), coefficient of variation (CV, %), and the Willmott index of agreement (d). The results from different methods are influenced by the meteorological systems and their seasonality, as well as by the interaction with the topography. The methods presented higher precision (r 2) and accuracy (d, RMSE) during the summer and transition to autumn, in comparison with the winter or spring months. The SPT had the highest precision and accuracy in relation to other methods, in addition to having a good representation of the spatial patterns expected for rainfall over the complex terrain of the state and its high spatial variability. 相似文献
42.
红壤丘陵区农业开发中的生态环境效应及其调控 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
文章以江西余江县为例。通过实验研究,历史资料对比分析及邻近参照等方法。研究红壤区农业开发中的生态环境效应。农业开发引起的微观环境效应在于改变土壤水分及其运动状况,加速土壤物质迁移及降低土壤肥力质量;区域性效应是植被减少,农业面源污染,水土流失扩大及气候异常;全球性影响除区域集聚效应外,则是农业活动中产生的温室气体对全球气候的影响等,采取的调控对策主要是:保持合理开发,适当减轻土地压力,优化农业开发模式,更新农业耕作技术。强化环境整治与生态建设。 相似文献
43.
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45.
María Charco José Fernández Francisco Luzón Kristy F. Tiampo John B. Rundle 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(4):865-878
Surface displacements and gravity changes due to volcanic sources are influenced by medium properties. We investigate topographic,
elastic and self-gravitation interaction in order to outline the major factors that are significant in data modelling. While
elastic-gravitational models can provide a suitable approximation to problems of volcanic loading in areas where topographic
relief is negligible, for prominent volcanoes the rough topography could affect deformation and gravity changes to a greater
extent than self-gravitation. This fact requires the selection, depending on local relief, of a suitable model for use in
the interpretation of surface precursors of volcanic activity. We use the three-dimensional Indirect Boundary Element Method
to examine the effects of topography on deformation and gravity changes in models of magma chamber inflation/deflation. Topography
has a significant effect on predicted surface deformation and gravity changes. Both the magnitude and pattern of the geodetic
signals are significantly different compared to half-space solutions. Thus, failure to account for topographic effects in
areas of prominent relief can bias the estimate of volcanic source parameters, since the magnitude and pattern of deformation
and gravity changes depend on such effects. 相似文献
46.
E. García-Bustamante J. F. González-Rouco J. Navarro E. Xoplaki P. A. Jiménez J. P. Montávez 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(1-2):141-160
The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992–2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified. 相似文献
47.
Anil?KumarEmail author Fei?Chen Dev?Niyogi Joseph?G.?Alfieri Michael?Ek Kenneth?Mitchell 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,138(2):263-284
Accurately representing complex land-surface processes balancing complexity and realism remains one challenge that the weather
modelling community is facing nowadays. In this study, a photosynthesis-based Gas-exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM)
is integrated into the Noah land-surface model replacing the traditional Jarvis scheme for estimating the canopy resistance
and transpiration. Using 18-month simulations from the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS), the impact
of the photosynthesis-based approach on the simulated canopy resistance, surface heat fluxes, soil moisture, and soil temperature
over different vegetation types is evaluated using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site, Oklahoma Mesonet,
2002 International H2O Project (IHOP_2002), and three Ameriflux sites. Incorporation of GEM into Noah improves the surface energy fluxes as well
as the associated diurnal cycle of soil moisture and soil temperature during both wet and dry periods. An analysis of midday,
average canopy resistance shows similar day-to-day trends in the model fields as seen in observed patterns. Bias and standard
deviation analyses for soil temperature and surface fluxes show that GEM responds somewhat better than the Jarvis scheme,
mainly because the Jarvis approach relies on a parametrised minimum canopy resistance and meteorological variables such as
air temperature and incident radiation. The analyses suggest that adding a photosynthesis-based transpiration scheme such
as GEM improves the ability of the land-data assimilation system to simulate evaporation and transpiration under a range of
soil and vegetation conditions. 相似文献
48.
Synoptic and mesoscale study of a severe convective outbreak with the nonhydrostatic Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A. Erfani A. Méthot R. Goodson S. Bélair K.-S. Yeh J. Côté R. Moffet 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,82(1-4):31-53
Summary ?A nonhydrostatic 4-km version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, with detailed microphysics included, was
used to forecast the initiation, development, and structure of a tornado-producing supercell storm that occurred near Pine
Lake (Alberta, Canada) on 15 July 2000. Examination of observations and comparison with conceptual models indicate that this
storm is a good example of supercell storms that regularly produce summertime severe weather over Alberta.
It was found that the high-resolution model was able to reproduce the early initiation of convective activity along the Rocky
Mountains foothills, as well as the rapid northeastward propagation towards the Pine Lake area and the subsequent intensification
into a supercell storm. The general structures of the forecasted convective system correspond well with conceptual representations
of such events. Overall, this high-resolution forecast of the Pine Lake supercell storm was a significant improvement over
the current operational version of the GEM model (24 km), which was not able to intensify the foothills’ convection into a
supercell storm. Finally, it was found that the nonhydrostatic version of the model produces better trajectory and propagation
speed of the convective system, as compared with the hydrostatic one.
Received March 20, 2001; revised August 24, 2001 相似文献
49.
Kristie?L.?EbiEmail author Jessica?Hartman Nathan?Chan John?Mcconnell Michael?Schlesinger John?Weyant 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):375-393
Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts
to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA
model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100.
The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and
precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human
population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while
the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse
gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used
within or across other African countries. 相似文献
50.
José Luís Argaín Miguel A. C. Teixeira Pedro M. A. Miranda 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,165(1):145-160
A method is proposed for estimating the surface-layer depth \((z_s)\) and the friction velocity \((u_*)\) as a function of stability (here quantified by the Obukhov length, L) over the complete range of unstable flow regimes. This method extends that developed previously for stable conditions by Argaín et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 130:15–28, 2009), but uses a qualitatively different approach. The method is specifically used to calculate the fractional speed-up \((\varDelta S)\) in flow over a ridge, although it is suitable for more general boundary-layer applications. The behaviour of \(z_s \left( L\right) \) and \(u_*\left( L\right) \) as a function of L is indirectly assessed via calculation of \(\varDelta S\left( L\right) \) using the linear model of Hunt et al. (Q J R Meteorol Soc 29:16–26, 1988) and its comparison with the field measurements reported in Coppin et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 69:173–199, 1994) and with numerical simulations carried out using a non-linear numerical model, FLEX. The behaviour of \(\varDelta S\) estimated from the linear model is clearly improved when \(u_*\) is calculated using the method proposed here, confirming the importance of accounting for the dependences of \(z_s\left( L \right) \) and \(u_*\left( L \right) \) on L to better represent processes in the unstable boundary layer. 相似文献