Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.     

黑龙江省封冻前土壤底墒趋势变化分析

利用黑龙江省1981-2010年的土壤湿度数据,以富锦县、龙江县、双城县、黑河市、海伦县为代表点,分析了黑龙江省东、西、南、北、中各区域封冻前(11月8日)0～30 cm土层土壤湿度的趋势变化和干湿变化,采用线性趋势、5年滑动平均和Mann-Kendall法检验变化趋势,利用Mann-Kendall和Yamamoto法对土壤湿度变化趋势进行突变点检验.结果表明:封冻前0～30 cm土层各地土壤湿度在30年间均有不同程度下降,西部龙江县下降剧烈,中部海伦县较剧烈,北部黑河市和南部双城县次之,上述代表点20 cm土层土壤湿度下降均达到了P＜0.05以内的显著水平,东部富锦县下降趋势最弱;经Mann-Kendall法检验,0～30 cm土层龙江县、海伦县土壤湿度出现了下降的突变区域,其余代表点的土壤湿度变化趋势在近几年中逐渐接近或已经超越了显著线;1994年是龙江县10 cm、20 cm土壤湿度下降的突变时期;黑龙江省各地土壤湿度的下降与封冻前一段时期内气温和降水变化密切相关,还与土壤物理性质的恶化等因素有关.     

1995—2010年静止卫星云量数据检验和评价

对利用FY2和GMS静止气象卫星建立的东亚地区气候数据集(EAGSCDR FY2 and GMS Geostationary Satellite Climate Data Record over East Asia)进行了检验和评估,使用的检验源数据包括中国地面气候资料与国际卫星云气候计划ISCCP D2月平均云量数据集.对由上述3种不同观测手段得到的多年平均总云量的空间分布特征分析结果表明:3种资料的总云量分布形势有较好的一致性,但是在40°N以北地区,ISCCP和EAGSCDR得到的总云量在量值上高于地面观测值.用地面观测资料检验华南及长江流域EAGSCDR的云检测产品的结果表明,总的准确率为82.10％,总漏判率6.85％,总误判率为11.05％,秋冬季节准确率偏低.EAGSCDR与ISCCP云量都是由卫星资料处理得到的,二者差异主要来自算法的不同,检验结果表明,EAGSCDR中的云量产品精度优于ISCCP云量,并且其时间分辨率可达到1 h,空间分辨率达到5 km,由此可见,EAGSCDR的云产品比ISCCP云产品更有优势.     

探空气球施放筒设计

探空气球的充灌和施放是高空气象观测工作的重要组成部分.目前高空观测中雷达跟踪探空仪、探空信号接收和数据处理都已经实现自动化,只有探空气球的充灌和施放是人工操作,气球充灌氢气有一定危险性,且至少需要一个观测员来完成施放气球工作.该文在分析探空气球充灌和施放各环节工作的基础上,介绍了一种探空气球施放筒的设计方案,以及在业务试验中存在的问题和改进方法,为高空气象观测系统的全程自动化创造条件.     

温室黄瓜低温气象灾害指标

以黄瓜品种津优35号(Jingyou 35)为试材,于2011年设计不同低温（5、7、9、11 ℃,以25 ℃为对照）处理的人工环境控制试验,系统研究不同低温胁迫对黄瓜叶片光合作用特性及抗氧化酶活性的影响。结果表明：黄瓜叶片最大光合速率随低温胁迫程度的增加依次降低;在不同低温胁迫下,随胁迫时间的延长,黄瓜叶片光补偿点不断升高,光饱和点不断降低;在5 ℃、7 ℃和9 ℃低温处理下,随胁迫时间的延长,光系统Ⅱ最大光化学效率呈下降趋势,光化学淬灭不断降低,非光化学淬灭的变化趋势相反;黄瓜叶片中的超氧化物歧化酶活性随着处理温度的降低先升高后下降;过氧化物酶活性在9 ℃处理24 h后达到最高;过氧化氢酶活性随着处理温度的降低而升高;丙二醛含量大于对照,随胁迫程度的增加先升高,后略有下降。通过研究建立了温室黄瓜低温气象灾害指标,划分为4个等级,分别为轻度、中度、重度和极重,可为设施农业气象服务提供科学依据。     

The amino acid composition of the Sutter's Mill CM2 carbonaceous chondrite

We determined the abundances and enantiomeric compositions of amino acids in Sutter's Mill fragment #2 (designated SM2) recovered prior to heavy rains that fell April 25–26, 2012, and two other meteorite fragments, SM12 and SM51, that were recovered postrain. We also determined the abundance, enantiomeric, and isotopic compositions of amino acids in soil from the recovery site of fragment SM51. The three meteorite stones experienced terrestrial amino acid contamination, as evidenced by the low d/l ratios of several proteinogenic amino acids. The d/l ratios were higher in SM2 than in SM12 and SM51, consistent with rain introducing additional l‐ amino acid contaminants to SM12 and SM51. Higher percentages of glycine, β‐alanine, and γ‐amino‐n‐butyric acid were observed in free form in SM2 and SM51 compared with the soil, suggesting that these free amino acids may be indigenous. Trace levels of d +l‐ β‐aminoisobutyric acid (β‐AIB) observed in all three meteorites are not easily explained as terrestrial contamination, as β‐AIB is rare on Earth and was not detected in the soil. Bulk carbon and nitrogen and isotopic ratios of the SM samples and the soil also indicate terrestrial contamination, as does compound‐specific isotopic analysis of the amino acids in the soil. The amino acid abundances in SM2, the most pristine SM meteorite analyzed here, are approximately 20‐fold lower than in the Murchison CM2 carbonaceous chondrite. This may be due to thermal metamorphism in the Sutter's Mill parent body at temperatures greater than observed for other aqueously altered CM2 meteorites.     

Presolar grains in the CM2 chondrite Sutter's Mill

The Sutter's Mill (SM) carbonaceous chondrite is a regolith breccia, composed predominantly of CM2 clasts with varying degrees of aqueous alteration and thermal metamorphism. An investigation of presolar grains in four Sutter's Mill sections, SM43, SM51, SM2‐4, and SM18, was carried out using NanoSIMS ion mapping technique. A total of 37 C‐anomalous grains and one O‐anomalous grain have been identified, indicating an abundance of 63 ppm for presolar C‐anomalous grains and 2 ppm for presolar oxides. Thirty‐one silicon carbide (SiC), five carbonaceous grains, and one Al‐oxide (Al₂O₃) were confirmed based on their elemental compositions determined by C‐N‐Si and O‐Si‐Mg‐Al isotopic measurements. The overall abundance of SiC grains in Sutter's Mill (55 ppm) is consistent with those in other CM chondrites. The absence of presolar silicates in Sutter's Mill suggests that they were destroyed by aqueous alteration on the parent asteroid. Furthermore, SM2‐4 shows heterogeneous distributions of presolar SiC grains (12–54 ppm) in different matrix areas, indicating that the fine‐grained matrix clasts come from different sources, with various thermal histories, in the solar nebula.     

Records of the Moon‐forming impact and the 470 Ma disruption of the L chondrite parent body in the asteroid belt from U‐Pb apatite ages of Novato (L6)

Novato, a newly observed fall in the San Francisco Bay area, is a shocked and brecciated L6 ordinary chondrite containing dark and light lithologies. We have investigated the U‐Pb isotope systematics of coarse Cl‐apatite grains of metamorphic origin in Novato with a large geometry ion microprobe. The U‐Pb systematics of Novato apatite reveals an upper intercept age of 4472 ± 31 Ma and lower intercept age of 473 ± 38 Ma. The upper intercept age is within error identical to the U‐Pb apatite age of 4452 ± 21 Ma measured in the Chelyabinsk LL5 chondrite. This age is interpreted to reflect a massive collisional resetting event due to a large impact associated with the peak arrival time at the primordial asteroid belt of ejecta debris from the Moon‐forming giant impact on Earth. The lower intercept age is consistent with the most precisely dated Ar‐Ar ages of 470 ± 6 Ma of shocked L chondrites, and the fossil meteorites and extraterrestrial chromite relicts found in Ordovician limestones with an age of 467.3 ± 1.6 Ma in Sweden and China. The lower intercept age reflects a major disturbance related to the catastrophic disruption of the L chondrite parent body most likely associated with the Gefion asteroid family, which produced an initially intense meteorite bombardment of the Earth in Ordovician period and reset and degassed at least approximately 35% of the L chondrite falls today. We predict that the 470 Ma impact event is likely to be found on the Moon and Mars, if not Mercury.     

Chromium isotopic systematics of the Sutter's Mill carbonaceous chondrite: Implications for isotopic heterogeneities of the early solar system

Recent studies have shown that major meteorite groups possess their own characteristic ⁵⁴Cr values, demonstrating the utility of Cr isotopes for identifying genetic relationships between the planetary materials in conjunction with other classical tools, such as oxygen isotopes. In this study, we performed Cr isotope analyses for whole rocks and chemically separated phases of the new CM2 chondrite, Sutter's Mill (SM 43 and 51). The two whole rocks of Sutter's Mill show essentially identical ε⁵⁴Cr excesses (SM 43 = +0.95 ± 0.09ε, SM 51 = +0.88 ± 0.07ε), relative to the Earth. These values are the same within error with that of the CM2‐type Murchison (+0.89 ± 0.08ε), suggesting that parent bodies of Sutter's Mill and Murchison were formed from the same precursor materials in the solar nebula. Large ε⁵⁴Cr excess of up to 29.40ε is observed in the silicate phase of Sutter's Mill, while that of Murchison shows 15.74ε. Importantly, the leachate fractions of both Sutter's Mill and Murchison form a steep linear anticorrelation between ε⁵⁴Cr and ε⁵³Cr, cross‐cutting the positive correlation previously observed in carbonaceous chondrites. The fact that L4 acid leachate fraction contains higher ⁵⁴Cr excesses than that of L5 step designed to dissolve refractory minerals suggests that spinel is not a major ⁵⁴Cr carrier. We also note that L5 contains ⁵³Cr anomalies lower than the solar initial value, suggesting it carries a component of nucleosynthetic anomaly unrelated to the ⁵³Mn decay. We have identified five endmember components of nucleosynthetic origin among the early solar system materials.     

Photometric Studies of Twelve Deep, Low-mass Ratio Overcontact Binary Systems

The formations of the blue straggler stars and the FK Com-type stars are unsolved problems in stellar astrophysics. One of the possibilities for their formations is from the coalescence of W UMa-type overcontact binary systems. Therefore, deep (f > 50%), low-mass ratio (q < 0.25) overcontact binary stars are a very important source to understand the phenomena of Blue Straggler/FK Com-type stars. Recently, 12 W UMa-type binary stars, FG Hya, GR Vir, IK Per, TV Mus, CU Tau, V857 Her, V410 Aur, XY Boo, SX CrV, QX And, GSC 619-232, and AH Cnc, were investigated photometrically. Apart from TV Mus, XY boo, and GSC 619-232, new observations of the other 9 binaries were obtained. Complete light curves of the 10 systems, FG Hya, GR Vir, IK Per, TV Mus, CU Tau, V857 Her, GSC 619-232, V410 Aur, XY Boo, and AH Cnc, were analyzed with the 2003 version of the W-D code. It is shown that all of those systems are deep (f > 50%), low-mass ratio (q < 0.25) overcontact binary stars. We found that the system GSC 619-232 has the highest degree of overcontact (f = 93.4%). The derived photometric mass ratio of V857 Her, q = 0.0653, indicates that it is the lowest-mass ratio system among W UMa-type binaries.Of the 12 sample stars, long-term period changes of 11 systems were found. About 58% (seven) of the sample binaries show cyclic period oscillation. No cyclic period changes were discovered for the other 5 systems, which may be caused by the short observational time interval or by insufficient observations. Therefore, we think that all W UMa-type binary stars may contain cyclic period variations. By considering the long-term period changes (both increase and decrease) of those binary stars, we proposed two evolutionary scenarios evolving from deep, low-mass ratio overcontact binaries into Blue Straggler/FK Com-type stars.