Precursors to dyke-fed eruptions at basaltic volcanoes: insights from patterns of volcano-tectonic seismicity at Kilauea volcano,Hawaii

To investigate the physical controls on volcano-tectonic (VT) precursors to eruptions and intrusions at basaltic volcanoes, we have analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of VT earthquakes associated with 34 eruptions and 23 dyke intrusions that occurred between 1960 and 1983 at Kilauea, in Hawaii. Eighteen of the 57 magmatic events were preceded by an acceleration of the mean rate of VT earthquakes located close to the main shallow magma reservoir. Using a maximum-likelihood technique and the Bayesian Information Criterion for model preference, we demonstrate that an exponential acceleration is preferred over a power-law acceleration for all sequences. These sequences evolve over time-scales of weeks to months and are consistent with theoretical models for the approach to volcanic eruptions based on the growth of a population of fractures in response to an excess magma pressure. Among the remaining 40 magmatic events, we found a significant correlation between swarms of VT earthquakes located in the mobile south-flank of Kilauea and eruptions and intrusions. The behaviour of these swarms suggests that at least some of the magmatic events are triggered by transient episodes of elevated rates of aseismic flank movement, which could explain why many eruptions and intrusions are not preceded by longer-term precursory signals. In none of the 57 cases could a precursory sequence be used to distinguish between the approach to an eruption or an intrusion, so that, even when a precursory sequence is recognized, there remains an empirical chance of about 40% (24 intrusions from 57 magmatic events) of issuing a false alarm for an imminent eruption.     

Identifying sources of groundwater in the lower Colorado River valley, USA, with δ18O, δD, and 3H: implications for river water accounting

Isotope measurements (¹⁸O, D, ³H) indicate groundwater origin in the Lower Colorado River Valley (LCRV) and provide an alternative, or supplement, to the US Bureau of Reclamations proposed accounting surface method. The accounting surface method uses a hydraulic criterion to identify certain wells away from the flood plain that will eventually yield mainstream Colorado River water. New isotope data for 5 surface-water and 18 groundwater sites around Topock Marsh, Arizona, are compared with river-water data (1974–2002) from 11 sites between Utah and Mexico and with groundwater data from previous LCRV studies. Three groundwater sources are repeatedly identified in the LCRV: (1) local recharge derived from precipitation, usually winter rain, plots slightly below the global meteoric water line (GMWL) and has D values that are 20 greater than those of recent river water; (2) older (pre-1950) upper basin river-water plots on or near the GMWL, distinct from local rainfall and recent river water; and (3) recent (post-1950) Colorado River water, including Topock Marsh samples, plots below the GMWL along an evaporation trend. Large floods, as in 1983, complicate interpretation by routing less evaporated upper basin water into the LCRV; however, tritium content can indicate the age of a water. River-water tritium has declined steadily from its peak of 716 TU in 1967 to about 11 TU in 2002. Mixtures of all three groundwater sources are common.

---

Resumen Mediciones isotópicas (¹⁸O, D, ³H) indican cual es el origen del agua subterránea en el Valle Bajo del Río Colorado (LCRV) y aportan una alternativa, o complemento, para el método superficie de conteo propuesto por el Buró de Reclamación de Estados Unidos. El método superficie de conteo utiliza un criterio hidráulico para identificar ciertos pozos alejados de la planicie de inundación que eventualmente producirán agua a partir de la corriente principal del Río Colorado. Los nuevos datos isotópicos para 18 sitios de agua subterránea y 5 sitios de agua superficial cerca de los Pantanos Topock, Arizona, se comparan con datos de agua de río (1974–2002) provenientes de 11 sitios localizados entre Utah y México, y con datos de aguas subterráneas de estudios previos realizados en el LCRV. Se identifican reiteradamente tres fuentes de aguas subterráneas en el LCRV: (1) recarga local derivada de precipitación, generalmente lluvia de invierno, cuya composición cae ligeramente por debajo de la línea de agua meteórica global (GMWL) y tiene valores D que son 20 mayores que los reportados para agua de río reciente; (2) el agua de río más vieja (pre-1950) de la cuenca alta cuya composición cae sobre o cerca de la GMWL, diferente de la lluvia local y del agua de río reciente; (3) agua reciente (post-1950) del Río Colorado, incluyendo muestras de los Pantanos Topock, con composición por debajo de la GMWL a lo largo de una tendencia a la evaporación. Inundaciones grandes, como en 1983, complican la interpretación al transmitir menos agua evaporada de la cuenca alta hacia el LCRV; sin embargo, el contenido de tritio puede indicar la edad del agua. El contenido de tritio en agua de río ha disminuido constantemente desde la concentración pico de 716 TU en 1967 a cerca de 11 TU en 2002. Es común que exista mezclas de las tres fuentes de agua subterránea.

---

Résumé Les mesures isotopiques (d18O, dD, 3H) indiquent les origine de leaux souterraines dans la Vallée de la Rivière du Bas Colorado (LCRV) et sont une alternative, ou un supplément, à la méthode des bilans hydrologiques proposée par du «US Bureau of Reclamation». Cette méthode de bilan hydrologique utilise un critère hydraulique permettant didentifier certains puits hors de la plaine dinondation qui pomperaient une part non négligeable de leur eau dans la rivière Colorado. De nouvelles données isotopiques provenant de 5 sites deau de surface et 18 deaux souterraines autour de Topock Marsh en Arizona, sont comparées avec les données (1974–2000) de 11 sites localisés entre Utah et Mexico, ainsi que des données dautres études sur la LCRV. Ces sources deaux souterraines sont identifiées à plusieurs reprises dans la LCRV: (1) la recharge locale dérivant des précipitations, généralement les pluies hivernales, se retrouvent légèrement sous la ligne deau météoritique globale (GMWL) et possède des valeurs de dD 20% supérieures aux valeurs des eaux récentes de la rivière; (2) les eaux vieilles (pre-1950) du bassin supérieur de la rivière possèdent une valeurs très proches de la GMWL, distinctes des valeurs de la pluie locale et des eaux récentes de la rivière; et (3) les eaux récentes (post-1950) de la Rivière Colorado, incluant les échantillons de Topock Marsh, se positionnent à côté de la GMWL sur une droite dévaporation. Les grandes inondations, par exemple celle de 1983, compliquent linterprétation en reprenant dans la LCRV moins deaux marquées comme évaporées et provenant du bassin supérieur; par ailleurs le pic de tritium est descendu de 716 TU en 1967 à 11 TU en 2002. Les mélanges de ces trois sources sont assez fréquentes.

     

Determining flow patterns and emplacement dynamics from tsunami deposits with no visible sedimentary structure

In the absence of eyewitness reports or clear sedimentary structures, it can be difficult to interpret tsunami deposits or reconstruct tsunami inundation patterns. The emplacement dynamics of two historical tsunami deposits were investigated at seven transects in Okains Bay, New Zealand, using a combined geospatial, geomagnetic and sedimentological approach. The tsunami deposits are present as layers of sand and silt intercalated between soils and become finer and thinner with distance inland. The deposits are attributed to the 1960 and possibly the 1868 tsunamis, based on radiometric dating and correlation with historical records. Measurements of Magnetic Fabric (MF: Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility) and particle size were used to reconstruct the evolution of flow dynamics laterally and vertically. A combination of statistical methods, including spatial autocorrelation testing, Spearman's rank order correlation, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and K‐means cluster analysis, was applied to examine relationships between MF parameters and sediment texture, and infer depositional hydrodynamics. Flow patterns deduced from MF show the estuary channel acted as a conduit for inundation, with flow commonly aligned sub‐perpendicular to the estuary bed. MF and sediment data suggest deposition occurred from settling during laminar flow. Evidence of both uprush and backwash deposition, as well as wave reflection from infrastructure, was found. Statistical analysis of data showed significant relationships between grain size parameters and MF parameters associated with flow speed and magnetic fabric type. PCA and cluster analysis differentiated samples into two primary hydrodynamic groups: (1) samples deposited from laminar flow; and (2) samples deposited close to the limit of inundation, which includes samples deposited further inland, those affected by flow convergence, and those in the upper part of tsunami deposits. This approach has potential as a tool for reconstructing hydrodynamic conditions for palaeotsunamis and by combining spatial and statistical analyses, large‐scale investigations can be more easily performed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of Shoreline Alteration and Other Stressors on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in Subestuaries of Chesapeake Bay and the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Bays

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) provides many important ecosystem functions, but SAV has been significantly reduced in many estuaries. We used spatial–statistical models to identify estuarine shoreline characteristics that explain variations in SAV abundance among subestuaries of the Chesapeake Bay and mid-Atlantic Coastal Bays. We summarized digital spatial data on shoreline construction, shoreline land use, physical characteristics, watershed land cover, and salinity for each subestuary. We related SAV abundance to shoreline characteristics and other stressors using univariate regression and multivariate models. The strongest univariate predictors of SAV abundance were percent shoreline forest, percent shoreline marsh, the percentage of shoreline that is 5–10 m tall, percent riprap, the percentage of subestuary area <2 m deep, percent herbaceous wetland, and percent shrubland. Shoreline marsh, bulkhead, and shoreline forest had different effects on SAV in different salinity zones. Percent riprap shoreline was the most important variable in a regression tree analysis of all the subestuaries, and percent deciduous forest in the watershed was the most important variable in a separate regression tree analysis on the mesohaline subestuaries. Subestuaries with <5.4 % riprap followed a significantly different temporal trajectory than those with >5.4 % riprap. SAV abundance has increased steadily since 1984 in subestuaries with <5.4 % riprap, but has not increased since 1996–1997 in subestuaries with >5.4 % riprap. Some shoreline characteristics interact with larger-scale factors like land cover and salinity zone to affect the distribution of SAV, while the effects of other shoreline characteristics are consistent among subestuaries with different salinities or local watershed land covers. Many shoreline characteristics can be controlled by management decisions, and our results help identify factors that managers should consider in efforts to increase SAV abundance.     

Variability in the fractionation of stable isotopes during degradation of two intertidal red algae

Macroalgae contribute to intertidal food webs primarily as detritus, with unclear implications for food web studies using stable isotope analysis. We examined differences in the thallus parts of two South African rhodophytes (Gelidium pristoides and Hypnea spicifera) and changes in overall δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N signatures and C:N ratios during degradation in both the field and laboratory. We hypothesized that both degrading macroalgal tissue and macroalgal-derived suspended particulate material (SPM) would show negligible changes in δ¹³C, but enriched δ¹⁵N signatures and lower C:N ratios relative to healthy plants. Only C:N laboratory ratios conformed to predictions, with both species of macroalgae showing decomposition related changes in δ¹³C and significant depletions in δ¹⁵N in both the field and laboratory. In the laboratory, algal tissue and SPM from each species behaved similarly (though some effects were non-significant) but with differing strengths. Gelidium pristoides δ¹³C increased and C:N ratios decreased over time in tissue and SPM; δ¹⁵N became depleted only in SPM. Hypnea spicifera, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N and C:N ratios all decreased during degradation in both SPM and algae.     

Processes controlling rapid temperature variations on rock surfaces

In arid environments, thermal oscillations are an important source of rock weathering. Measurements of temperature have been made on the surface of rocks in a desert environment at a sampling interval of 0·375 s, with simultaneous measurements of wind speed, air temperature, and incoming shortwave radiation. Over timescales of hours, the temperature of the rock surface was determined primarily by shortwave radiation and air temperature, while rapid temperature variations, high dT/dt, at intervals of seconds or less, were determined by wind speed. The maximum values of temperature change and time spent above 2°C min^?1 increased at high measurement rates and were much higher than previously reported. The maximum recorded value of dT/dt was 137°C min^?1 and the average percentage time spent above 2°C min^?1 was ～70 ± 13%. Maximum values of dT/dt did not correlate with the maximum values of time spent above 2°C min^?1. Simultaneous measurements of two thermocouples 5·5 cm apart on a single rock surface had similar temperature and dT/dt values, but were not correlated at sampling intervals of less than 10 s. It is suggested that this is resulting from rapid fluctuations due to small spatial and timescale wind effects that are averaged out when data is taken at longer sampling intervals, ～10 s or greater. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A radar survey of M- and X-class asteroids II. Summary and synthesis

Using the S-band radar at Arecibo Observatory, we observed six new M-class main-belt asteroids (MBAs), and re-observed one, bringing the total number of Tholen M-class asteroids observed with radar to 19. The mean radar albedo for all our targets is , significantly higher than the mean radar albedo of every other class (Magri, C., Nolan, M.C., Ostro, S.J., Giorgini, J.D. [2007]. Icarus 186, 126-151). Seven of these objects (Asteroids 16 Psyche, 129 Antigone, 216 Kleopatra, 347 Pariana, 758 Mancunia, 779 Nina, 785 Zwetana) have radar albedos indicative of a very high metal content , and consistent with a remnant iron/nickel core interpretation (irons) or exotic high metal meteorite types such as CB. We propose designating these high radar albedo objects as Mm. Two asteroids, 110 Lydia and 678 Fredegundis, have more moderate radar albedos , but exhibit high values at some rotation phases suggesting a significant metal content. The remaining 10 objects have moderate radar albedos at all rotation phases. Most of our targets have visible/near-infrared spectra (Hardersen, P.S., Gaffey, M.J., Abell, P.A. [2005]. Icarus 175, 141-158; Fornasier, S., Clark, B.E., Dotto, E., Migliorini, A., Ockert-Bell, M., Barucci, M.A. [2009]. Icarus, submitted for publication) that indicate the presence of at least some silicate phases. All of the non-Mm asteroids show a positive correlation between visual and radar albedo but the reasons for this are not clear. All of the higher radar albedo targets (the 7 Mm asteroids, Lydia, and Fredegundis) show moderate to large variations in radar albedo with rotation phase. We suggest that their high radar reflectivity exaggerates irregularities in the asteroid shape to cause this behavior. One-third of our targets show evidence for asteroid-scale concavities or bifurcation. Based on all the evidence available, we suggest that most Tholen M-class asteroids are not remnant iron cores or enstatite chondrites, but rather collisional composites of silicates and irons with compositions more analogous to stony-iron meteorites and high-iron carbonaceous chondrites.     

Interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime North Pacific

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the extratropical North Pacific during boreal winter, which has an important impact on North American winter climate. This study analyses the interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime extratropical North Pacific, over the period 1900–2010, using a range of observationally derived datasets and an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations. The observed teleconnection strength is found to vary substantially over the 20th century. Specifically, 31-year periods in the early-century (1912–1942), mid-century (1946–1976) and the late-century (1980–2010) are identified in the observations when the ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific circulation are found to be particularly strong, weak and strong respectively. The ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific in the atmospheric model ensemble is weak in the mid-century period and substantially stronger in the late-century, closely following the variability in the observed ENSO-North Pacific teleconnection. In the early-century, however, the atmospheric model also exhibits a weak teleconnection to the North Pacific, unlike in observations. In a subset of the model realisations that exhibit similar ENSO-North Pacific teleconnection as in observations during the early-century period there are large differences in extratropical circulation but not in equatorial Pacific precipitation anomalies, in contrast to the late-century period. This suggests that the high correlation in the early century period is largely due to internal extratropical variability. The important implications of these results for seasonal predictability and the assessment of seasonal forecasting systems are discussed.

     

The hydrodynamics of thin floating plates

The radiation and diffraction problems are considered in the frequency domain for a thin elastic plate of rectangular planform floating in an irrotational, incompressible ocean of infinite depth. The inner potential field inside a hemisphere surrounding the plate is represented using a spherical harmonic expansion which suits the geometry and zero-draft nature of the plate. Problems associated with distributing sources in the free surface are avoided. The Chen and Mei variational principle is used to weakly match this inner solution and its normal derivative to an outer field described by distributing sources on the exterior of the hemisphere. The validity of the procedure is first illustrated by considering a heaving circular disk. Numerous hydrodynamic coefficients are presented as benchmark data for floating flexible structures. The transient motion of the plate is simulated using rational approximations (in the frequency domain) to the radiation impedance and diffraction mapping which are implemented as ODE's in the time domain.     

New, high-resolution, near-infrared observations of HH 1

We present new, high-resolution, near-infrared images of the HH 1 jet and bow shock. H₂ and [Fe  ii ] images are combined to trace excitation changes along the jet and across the many shock features in this flow. Echelle spectra of H₂ profiles towards a few locations in HH 1 are also discussed. Gas excitation in oblique, planar C-type shocks best explains the observations, although J-type shocks must be responsible for the observed [Fe  ii ] emission features. Clearly, no single shock model can account for all of the observations. This will probably be true of most, if not all, Herbig–Haro flows.