On Constraining Pilot Point Calibration with Regularization in PEST

Ground water model calibration has made great advances in recent years with practical tools such as PEST being instrumental for making the latest techniques available to practitioners. As models and calibration tools get more sophisticated, however, the power of these tools can be misapplied, resulting in poor parameter estimates and/or nonoptimally calibrated models that do not suit their intended purpose. Here, we focus on an increasingly common technique for calibrating highly parameterized numerical models—pilot point parameterization with Tikhonov regularization. Pilot points are a popular method for spatially parameterizing complex hydrogeologic systems; however, additional flexibility offered by pilot points can become problematic if not constrained by Tikhonov regularization. The objective of this work is to explain and illustrate the specific roles played by control variables in the PEST software for Tikhonov regularization applied to pilot points. A recent study encountered difficulties implementing this approach, but through examination of that analysis, insight into underlying sources of potential misapplication can be gained and some guidelines for overcoming them developed.     

Thermobaric structure of the Kokchetav ultrahigh-pressure–high-pressure massif deduced from a north–south transect in the Kulet and Saldat–Kol regions, northern Kazakhstan

Abstract To investigate the regional thermobaric structure of the diamondiferous Kokchetav ultrahigh‐pressure and high‐pressure (UHP–HP) massif and adjacent units, eclogite and other metabasites in the Kulet and Saldat–Kol regions, northern Kazakhstan, were examined. The UHP–HP massif is subdivided into four units, bounded by subhorizontal faults. Unit I is situated at the lowest level of the massif and consists of garnet–amphibolite and acidic gneiss with minor pelitic schist and orthogneiss. Unit II, which structurally overlies Unit I, is composed mainly of pelitic schist and gneiss, and whiteschist locally with abundant eclogite blocks. The primary minerals observed in Kulet and Saldat–Kol eclogites are omphacite, sodic augite, garnet, quartz, rutile and minor barroisite, hornblende, zoisite, clinozoisite and phengite. Rare kyanite occurs as inclusions in garnet. Coesite inclusions occur in garnet porphyroblasts in whiteschist from Kulet, which are closely associated with eclogite masses. Unit III consists of alternating orthogneiss and amphibolite with local eclogite masses. The structurally highest unit, Unit IV, is composed of quartzitic schist with minor pelitic, calcareous, and basic schist intercalations. Mineral assemblages and compositions, and occurrences of polymorphs of SiO₂ (quartz or coesite) in metabasites and associated rocks in the Kulet and Saldat–Kol regions indicate that the metamorphic grades correspond to epidote–amphibolite, through high‐pressure amphibolite and quartz–eclogite, to coesite–eclogite facies conditions. Based on estimations by several geothermobarometers, eclogite from Unit II yielded the highest peak pressure and temperature conditions in the UHP–HP massif, with metamorphic pressure and temperature decreasing towards the upper and lower structural units. The observed thermobaric structure is subhorizontal. The UHP–HP massif is overlain by a weakly metamorphosed unit to the north and is underlain by the low‐pressure Daulet Suite to the south; boundaries are subhorizontal faults. There is a distinct pressure gap across these boundaries. These suggest that the highest grade unit, Unit II, has been selectively extruded from the greatest depths within the UHP–HP unit during the exhumation process, and that all of the UHP–HP unit has been tectonically intruded and juxtaposed into the adjacent lower grade units at shallower depths of about 10 km.     

Profiles of Fecal Porphyrins in River Otters Following the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

Median levels of Coproporphyrin III (Copro III) in fecal samples of river otters (Lontra canadensis) collected from an oiled area in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, during 1990 were significantly higher than in samples collected from the same oiled area during 1996 (p=0.011, one way analysis of variance), a nonoiled reference area in Prince William Sound during 1996 (p=0.002) and a reference area in southeast Alaska during 1998 (p=0.004). An overall test of significance that combined probabilities from the statistical analysis of this porphyrin study with those from other biomarker studies revealed a significant difference in physiological response of river otters between oiled and nonoiled areas of the Sound for 1990 (p < 0.01). We demonstrated that changes in levels of fecal porphyrins may serve as a biomarker that may contribute to a health assessment of wild river otters.     

Low- and intermediate-mass close binary evolution and the initial–final mass relation

Using Eggleton's stellar evolution code, we carry out 150 runs of Population I binary evolution calculations with the initial primary mass between 1 and 8 M_⊙, the initial mass ratio     between 1.1 and 4, and the onset of Roche lobe overflow (RLOF) at an early, middle or late Hertzsprung-gap stage. We assume that RLOF is conservative in the calculations, and find that the remnant mass of the primary may change by more than 40 per cent over the range of initial mass ratio or orbital period, for a given primary mass. This is contrary to the often-held belief that the remnant mass depends only on the progenitor mass if mass transfer begins in the Hertzsprung gap. We fit a formula, with an error less than 3.6 per cent, for the remnant (white dwarf) mass as a function of the initial mass M _1i of the primary, the initial mass ratio q _i and the radius of the primary at the onset of RLOF. We also find that a carbon–oxygen white dwarf with mass as low as 0.33 M_⊙ may be formed if the initial mass of the primary is around 2.5 M_⊙.     

Vertical cloud structures of the boreal summer intraseasonal variability based on CloudSat observations and ERA-interim reanalysis

The boreal summer intraseasonal variability (BSISV), which is characterized by pronounced meridional propagation from the equatorial zone to the Indian Continent, exerts significant modulation of the active/break phases of the south Asian monsoon. This form of variability provides a primary source of subseasonal predictive skill of the Asian summer monsoon. Unfortunately, current general circulation models display large deficiencies in representing this variability. The new cloud observations made available by the CloudSat mission provide an unprecedented opportunity to advance our characterization of the BSISV. In this study, the vertical structures of cloud water content and cloud types associated with the BSISV over the Indian Ocean and subcontinent are analyzed based on CloudSat observations from 2006 to 2008. These cloud structures are also compared to their counterparts as derived from ERA-interim reanalysis. A marked vertical tilting structure in cloud water is illustrated during the northward propagation of the BSISV based on both datasets. Increased cloud liquid water content (LWC) tends to appear to the north of the rainfall maximum, while ice water content (IWC) in the upper troposphere slightly lags the convection. This northward shift of increased LWC, which is in accord with local enhanced moisture as previously documented, may play an important role in the northward propagation of the BSISV. The transition in cloud structures associated with BSISV convection is further demonstrated based on CloudSat, with shallow cumuli at the leading edge, followed by the deep convective clouds, and then upper anvil clouds. Some differences in cloud water structures between CloudSat and ERA-interim are also noted, particularly in the amplitudes of IWC and LWC fields.     

Maximal Overlap Wavelet Statistical Analysis With Application to Atmospheric Turbulence

Statistical tools based on the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) are reviewed, and then applied to a dataset of aircraft observations of the atmospheric boundary layer from the tropical eastern Pacific, which includes quasi-stationary and non-stationary segments. The wavelet methods provide decompositions of variances and covariances, e.g. fluxes, between time scales that effectively describe a broadband process like atmospheric turbulence. Easily understood statistical confidence bounds are discussed and applied to these scale decompositions, and results are compared to Fourier methods for quasi-stationary turbulence. The least asymmetric LA(8) wavelet filter yields coefficients that exhibit better uncorrelatedness across scales than the Haar filter and is better suited for decomposition of broadband turbulent signals. An application to a non-stationary segment of our dataset, namely vertical profiles of the turbulent dissipation rate, highlights the flexibility of wavelet methods.     

On the relationship between flood and contributing area

Although it is well known that the vast majority of the time only a portion of any watershed contributes run‐off to the outlet, this extent is rarely documented. Also, the power law form of the streamflow and contributing area (Q‐A_c) relationship has been known for a half century, but it is uncommon for it to be quantified, and time series of contributing area extensive enough to calculate its frequency distribution are almost non‐existent. Data from the Canadian Prairies, where there are extensive estimates of contributing area during the median annual flood, imply that the power law coefficient for any Q‐A_c curve is a function of flow magnitude and return period. These data also suggest that regional flood frequency curves are a construct of Q‐A_c curves from individual basins. This paper will discuss research that attempted to reproduce the Q‐A_c curves for the La Salle River Watershed with a semidistributed numerical hydrological model, MESH‐PDMROF. The model simulated streamflow reasonably well (Nash Sutcliffe values = 0.62) compared with published examples of comparable models applied in the region. Estimates of the coefficient and exponent of the Q‐A_c power law function ranged from 0.08–0.14 and 0.9–1.12, respectively. These exponent values were lower than those of regional flood frequency curves and support the theory that regional flood frequency curves are a construct of Q‐A_c curves. Simulations of the area contributing to the median annual flood were lower (0.3) than those derived from independent topographic analysis (0.9) described in earlier literature though there is uncertainty in both these estimates. This uncertainty was extended across the flood frequency distribution and may be too large to definitively verify the study hypothesis.     

Chloride in precipitation and streamwater for the upland catchment of river severn,mid-wales; some consequences for hydrochemical models

Variations in the concentration of Cl in rainfall and stream runoff are presented for two catchments in the Hafren forest of mid-Wales, Great Britain. Despite the large fluctuations in rainfall concentrations, Cl in the streamwater remains relatively constant. Using the two-reservoir Birkenes model, an attempt was made to simulate observed Cl in streamwater. The original model was unable to reproduce the observations and several modifications are suggested to provide better simulations. The resulting model is not the only one capable of reproducing the observations; other hydrochemical models will most probably also achieve this although emphasis will in each case be placed on different aspects. In this paper, it is suggested that the stochastic properties of water movement and chemical processes can account for the streamwater chemistry responses observed. On the catchment scale these processes will lead to an apparently deterministic behaviour that may well be described by simple relationships.