Uncertainty in hydrologic modelling for estimating hydrologic response due to climate change (Santiam River,Oregon)

This paper explores the predicted hydrologic responses associated with the compounded error of cascading global circulation model (GCM) uncertainty through hydrologic model uncertainty due to climate change. A coupled groundwater and surface water flow model (GSFLOW) was used within the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) uncertainty approach and combined with eight GCMs to investigate uncertainties in hydrologic predictions for three subbasins of varying hydrogeology within the Santiam River basin in Oregon, USA. Predictions of future hydrology in the Santiam River include increases in runoff in the fall and winter months and decreases in runoff for the spring and summer months. One‐year peak flows were predicted to increase whereas 100‐year peak flows were predicted to slightly decrease. The predicted 10‐year 7‐day low flow decreased in two subbasins with little groundwater influences but increased in another subbasin with substantial groundwater influences. Uncertainty in GCMs represented the majority of uncertainty in the analysis, accounting for an average deviation from the median of 66%. The uncertainty associated with use of GSFLOW produced only an 8% increase in the overall uncertainty of predicted responses compared to GCM uncertainty. This analysis demonstrates the value and limitations of cascading uncertainty from GCM use through uncertainty in the hydrologic model, offers insight into the interpretation and use of uncertainty estimates in water resources analysis, and illustrates the need for a fully nonstationary approach with respect to calibrating hydrologic models and transferring parameters across basins and time for climate change analyses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dose-dependent response of a benthic system to biodeposition from suspended blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) culture

This study reports the results of a field experiment using benthic mesocosms that examined dose-dependent effects of mussel biodeposition on the benthic environment. Mesocosms were placed in the natural sea bottom and subjected to one of eight levels of biodeposition (from 0 to 1400 mussels m^?2). Most analyses indicated non-linear (i.e., threshold) effects. Sediment characteristics changed significantly between 200 and 400 mussels m^?2 as did multivariate community structure. Community structure effects were characterised by changes in abundances of species that are very sensitive or tolerant to organic loading. The multivariate AZTI Marine Biotic Index (M-AMBI) indicated that the benthic status changed from High to Good in all mesocosms receiving biodeposits. Sediments acted as a sink for oxygen (O₂), but results suggest O₂ sediment demand was not sensitive enough to evaluate organic loading impacts. Results from this and improved experiments can be used to determine the environmental carrying capacity of sites for bivalve culture.     

SWAT-based hydrological modelling of tropical land-use scenarios

Abstract

The Hulu Langat basin, a strategic watershed in Malaysia, has in recent decades been exposed to extensive changes in land-use and consequently hydrological conditions. In this work, the impact of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) on hydrological conditions (water discharge and sediment load) of the basin were investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Four land-use scenarios were defined for land-use change impact analysis, i.e. past, present (baseline), future and water conservation planning. The land-use maps, dated 1984, 1990, 1997 and 2002, were defined as the past scenarios for LUCC impact analysis. The present scenario was defined based on the 2006 land-use map. The 2020 land-use map was simulated using a cellular automata-Markov model and defined as the future scenario. Water conservation scenarios were produced based on guidelines published by Malaysia’s Department of Town and Country Planning and Department of Environment. Model calibration and uncertainty analysis was performed using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. The model robustness for water discharge simulation for the period 1997–2008 was good. However, due to uncertainties, mainly resulting from intense urban development in the basin, its robustness for sediment load simulation was only acceptable for the calibration period 1997–2004. The optimized model was run using different land-use maps over the periods 1997–2008 and 1997–2004 for water discharge and sediment load estimation, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, SWAT simulation using the past and conservative scenarios showed significant reduction in monthly direct runoff and monthly sediment load, while SWAT simulation based on the future scenario showed significant increase in monthly direct runoff, monthly sediment load and groundwater recharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

Regional climate gradients in precipitation and temperature in response to climate teleconnections in the Greater Everglades ecosystem of South Florida

Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 10¹–10² km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.     

Effective sea ice area based on a thickness threshold

As Arctic sea ice declines in response to climate change, a shift from thick multiyear ice to a thinner ice cover is occurring. With this transition, ice thicknesses approach a threshold below which ice no longer insulates the atmosphere from oceanic surface fluxes. While this is well known, there are no estimates of the magnitude of this threshold, nor of the proportion of sea ice area that is below this threshold as ice thins. We determine this threshold by simulating the atmospheric response to varying thicknesses, ranging from 0.0 to 2.0 m and determine that threshold to be 0.40–0.50 m. The resulting “effective” ice area is 4–14% lower than reported total ice area, as 0.39–0.97 × 10⁶ km² of the total ice area falls below the threshold throughout the twentieth century, including during notable ice minima. The atmosphere above large non-insulating ice-covered regions is susceptible to more than 2 °C of warming despite ice presence. Observed mean Arctic Ocean ice thickness is projected to fall below this threshold as early as the mid-2020s. Studies on ocean–atmosphere interactions in relation to sea ice area should focus on this insulating sea ice area, where ice is at least 0.40–0.50 m thick, and treat ice regions below 0.40–0.50 m thickness with caution.

     

Characterisation of organic matter and microbial communities in contrasting arsenic-rich Holocene and arsenic-poor Pleistocene aquifers,Red River Delta,Vietnam

High concentrations of geogenic As in the groundwaters of south and SE Asia, which are used as drinking waters, are causing severe health impacts to the exposed human populations. It is widely accepted that As mobilisation from sediments into these shallow reducing groundwaters requires active metal-reducing microbes and electron donors such as organic matter (OM). Although OM in such Holocene aquifers has been characterised, there is a dearth of data on Pleistocene aquifers from the same areas. Reported here are preliminary studies of OM and microbial communities present in two aquifers, one of Pleistocene and one of Holocene age, with contrasting concentrations of As (viz. Pleistocene: low As <10 μg/L; Holocene: high As up to 600 μg/L) from Van Phuc village in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Results revealed OM inputs from multiple sources, including potential contributions from naturally occurring petroleum seeping into the shallow aquifer sediments from deeper thermally mature source rocks. Although concentrations vary, no noticeable systematic differences in biomarker distribution patterns within the OM were observed between the two sites. Microbial analyses did not show a presence of microbial communities previously associated with As mobilisation. All clone libraries were dominated by α-, β-, and γ-Proteobacteria not known to be able to reduce Fe(III) or sorbed As(V). Furthermore, representatives of the Fe(III)-reducing genus Geobacter could only be detected at very low abundance by PCR, using highly selective 16S rRNA gene primers, supporting the hypothesis that metal reduction is not a dominant in situ process in these sediments. No correlation between As concentration in groundwater and OM composition nor microbial community in the host sediments was found. This suggests that either (i) As is not being significantly mobilised in situ in these sediments, instead As appears to be mobilised elsewhere and transported by groundwater flow to the sites or (ii) sorption/desorption processes, as implicated by geochemical data from the cores, play a critical role in controlling As concentrations at these sites.     

Recent paleorecords document rising mercury contamination in Lake Tanganyika

Recent Lake Tanganyika Hg deposition records were derived using ¹⁴C and excess ²¹⁰Pb geochronometers in sediment cores collected from two contrasting depositional environments: the Kalya Platform, located mid-lake and more removed from watershed impacts, and the Nyasanga/Kahama River delta region, located close to the lake’s shoreline north of Kigoma. At the Kalya Platform area, pre-industrial Hg concentrations are 23 ± 0.2 ng/g, increasing to 74 ng/g in modern surface sediment, and the Hg accumulation rate has increased from 1.0 to 7.2 μg/m²/a from pre-industrial to present, which overall represents a 6-fold increase in Hg concentration and accumulation. At the Nyasanga/Kahama delta region, pre-industrial Hg concentrations are 20 ± 3 ng/g, increasing to 46 ng/g in surface sediment. Mercury accumulation rate has increased from 30 to 70 μg/m²/a at this site, representing a 2–3-fold increase in Hg concentration and accumulation. There is a lack of correlation between charcoal abundance and Hg accumulation rate in the sediment cores, demonstrating that local biomass burning has little relationship with the observed Hg concentration or Hg accumulation rates. Examined using a sediment focusing-corrected mass accumulation rate approach, the cores have similar anthropogenic atmospheric Hg deposition profiles, suggesting that after accounting for background sediment concentrations the source of accumulating Hg is predominantly atmospheric in origin. In summary, the data document an increase of Hg flux to the Lake Tanganyika ecosystem that is consistent with increasing watershed sediment delivery with background-level Hg contamination, and regional as well as global increases in atmospheric Hg deposition.     

Integrated provenance analysis of a convergent retroarc foreland system: U–Pb ages,heavy minerals,Nd isotopes,and sandstone compositions of the Middle Magdalena Valley basin,northern Andes,Colombia

Sediment provenance analysis remains a powerful method for testing hypotheses on the temporal and spatial evolution of uplifted source regions, but issues such as recycling, nonunique sources, and pre- and post-depositional modifications may complicate interpretation of results from individual provenance techniques. Convergent retroarc systems commonly contain sediment sources that are sufficiently diverse (continental magmatic arc, fold–thrust belt, and stable craton) to enable explicit provenance assessments. In this paper, we combine detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology, heavy mineral identification, Nd isotopic analyses, conventional sandstone petrography, and paleocurrent measurements to reconstruct the clastic provenance history of a long-lived sedimentary basin now exposed in an intermontane zone of the northern Andean hinterland of Colombia. The Middle Magdalena Valley basin, situated between the Central Cordillera and Eastern Cordillera, contains a 5–10 km-thick succession of Upper Cretaceous to Quaternary fill. The integrated techniques show a pronounced change in provenance during the Paleocene transition from the lower to upper Lisama Formation. We interpret this as a shift from an eastern cratonic source to a western Andean source composed of magmatic-arc rocks uplifted during initial shortening of the Central Cordillera. The appearance of detrital chloritoid and a shift to more negative ε_Nd(t=0) values in middle Eocene strata of the middle La Paz Formation are attributed to shortening-related exhumation of a continental basement block (La Cira–Infantas paleohigh), now buried, along the axis of the Magdalena Valley. The diverse provenance proxies also show distinct changes during middle to late Eocene deposition of the Esmeraldas Formation that likely reflect initial rock uplift and exhumation of the fold–thrust belt defining the Eastern Cordillera. Upsection, detrital zircon U–Pb ages and heavy mineral assemblages for Oligocene and younger clastic deposits indicate that the Mesozoic sedimentary cover of the Eastern Cordillera was recycled during continued Cenozoic shortening. Our multidisciplinary provenance study refines the tectonic history of the Colombian Andes and demonstrates that uncertainties related to sediment recycling, nonunique sources, source heterogeneity, and climate in interpreting provenance data can be minimized via an integrated approach.     

Implications of channel flow analogue models for extrusion of the Higher Himalayan Shear Zone with special reference to the out-of-sequence thrusting

The Higher Himalayan Shear Zone (HHSZ) contains a ductile top-to-N/NE shear zone—the South Tibetan detachment system-lower (STDS_L) and an out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) as well as a top-to-N/NE normal shear at its northern boundary and ubiquitously distributed compressional top-to-S/SW shear throughout the shear zone. The OOST that was active between 22 Ma and the Holocene, varies in thickness from 50 m to 6 km and in throw from 1.4 to 20 km. Channel flow analogue models of this structural geology were performed in this work. A Newtonian viscous polymer (PDMS) was pushed through a horizontal channel leading to an inclined channel with parallel and upward-diverging boundaries analogous to the HHSZ and allowed to extrude to the free surface. A top-to-N/NE shear zone equivalent to the STDS_U developed spontaneously. This also indirectly connotes an independent flow confined to the southern part of the HHSZ gave rise to the STDS_L. The PDMS originally inside the horizontal channel extruded at a faster rate through the upper part of the inclined channel. The lower boundary of this faster PDMS defined the OOST. The model OOST originated at the corner and reached the vent at positions similar to the natural prototype some time after the channel flow began. The genesis of the OOST seems to be unrelated to any rheologic contrast or climatic effects. Profound variations in the flow parameters along the HHSZ and the extrusive force probably resulted in variations in the timing, location, thickness and slip parameters of the OOST. Variation in pressure gradient within the model horizontal channel, however, could not be matched with the natural prototype. Channel flow alone presumably did not result in southward propagation of deformation in the Himalaya.