The Ashima/MIT Mars GCM and argon in the martian atmosphere

We investigate the ability of modern general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate transport in the martian atmosphere using measurements of argon as a proxy for the transport processes. Argon provides the simplest measure of transport as it is a noble gas with no sinks or sources on seasonal timescales. Variations in argon result solely from ‘freeze distillation’, as the atmosphere condenses at the winter poles, and from atmospheric transport. Comparison of all previously published models when rescaled to a common definition of the argon enhancement factor (EF) suggest that models generally do a poor job in predicting the peak enhancement in southern winter over the winter pole – the time when the capability of the model transport approaches are most severely tested. Despite observed peak EF values of ～6, previously published model predictions peaked at EF values of only 2–3. We introduce a new GCM that provides a better treatment of mass conservation within the dynamical core, includes more sophisticated tracer transport approaches, and utilizes a cube–sphere grid structure thus avoiding the grid-point convergence problem at the pole that exists for most current Mars GCMs. We describe this model – the Ashima Research/Massachusetts Institute of Technology Mars General Circulation Model (Ashima/MIT Mars GCM) and use it to demonstrate the significant sensitivity of peak EF to the choices of transport approach for both tracers and heat. We obtain a peak EF of 4.75 which, while over 50% higher than any prior model, remains well short of the observed value. We show that the polar EF value in winter is primarily determined by the competition between two processes: (1) mean meridional import of lower-latitude air not enriched in argon and (2) the leakage of enriched argon out of the polar column by eddies in the lowest atmospheric levels. We suggest possibilities for improving GCM representation of the CO₂ cycle and the general circulation that may further improve the simulation of the argon cycle. We conclude that current GCMs may be insufficient for detailed simulation of transport-sensitive problems like the water cycle and potentially also the dust cycle.     

The effect of massive binaries on stellar populations and supernova progenitors

We compare our latest single and binary stellar model results from the Cambridge stars code to several sets of observations. We examine four stellar population ratios: the number of blue to red supergiants, the number of Wolf–Rayet stars to O supergiants, the number of red supergiants to Wolf–Rayet stars and the relative number of Wolf–Rayet subtypes, WC to WN stars. These four ratios provide a quantitative measure of nuclear burning lifetimes and the importance of mass loss during various stages of the stars' lifetimes. In addition, we compare our models to the relative rate of Type Ib/c to Type II supernovae to measure the amount of mass lost over the entire lives of all stars. We find reasonable agreement between the observationally inferred values and our predicted values by mixing single and binary star populations. However, there is evidence that extra mass loss is required to improve the agreement further, to reduce the number of red supergiants and increase the number of Wolf–Rayet stars.     

Physical properties of near-Earth Asteroid (33342) 1998 WT24

During its close Earth approach in 2001, the E-class near-Earth Asteroid (33342) 1998 WT24 was the focus of extensive radar, optical, and thermal infrared observations. We present a physical model of this object, estimated from Arecibo and Goldstone radar images that cover multiple rotations and span over 100° of sky motion. The asteroid has an equivalent diameter of 415±40 m and a diffuse radar scattering law that is identical in both senses of circular polarization, implying a surface that is extremely rough on centimeter-to-decimeter scales. The shape is dominated by three large basins, which may be impact craters or a relic of past dynamical disruption of the object. Analysis of YORP perturbations on WT24's spin state predicts that the asteroid's spin rate is decreasing at a rate of . Simply extrapolating this rate suggests that the asteroid will despin over the next 150 kyr and was spinning at its surface disruption rate 75 kyr ago, but the rotational evolution of WT24 depends on the surface's thermal properties and probably is more complex than a simple spin-down.     

Increasing fiscal resilience to disasters in the Pacific

Pacific Island countries are among the list of countries that face the highest disaster risk globally—in per capita terms. In recent years, governments in the region have been confronted by a rise in damages from extreme catastrophic events, many increasingly linked to climate change. These events pose significant challenges to Pacific governments in terms of maintaining fiscal stability and the operation of their limited and under-diversified economies and shallow financial sectors. Governments in the region generally play a leading role in domestic economies and are responsible for leading disaster prevention, mitigation, and recovery efforts. Accordingly, measures to improve financial sustainability and the public sector’s ability to provide public services in the aftermath of major disasters must be prioritized. This paper examines the literature on fiscal resilience to disasters, the estimated impacts of major events in the Pacific, and analyses the applicability of available financial instruments to facilitate both ex ante and ex post disaster fiscal risk management in the region. The paper also discusses policies that can improve resilience against fiscal risks.

     

Cotton canopy reflectance under variable solar zenith angles: Implications of use in evapotranspiration models

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important parameter in hydrologic processes and modelling. In agricultural watersheds with competing uses of fresh water including irrigated agriculture, estimating crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) accurately is critical for improving irrigation system and basin water management. The use of remote sensing-based basal crop coefficients is becoming a common method for estimating crop evapotranspiration for multiple crops over large areas. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), based on reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands, are commonly used for this purpose. In this paper, we examine the effects of row crop orientation and soil background darkening due to shading and soil surface wetness on these two vegetation indices through modelling, coupled with a field experiment where canopy reflectance of a cotton crop at different solar zenith angles, was measured with a portable radiometer. The results show that the NDVI is significantly more affected than the SAVI by background shading and soil surface wetness, especially in north–south oriented rows at higher latitudes and could lead to a potential overestimation of crop evapotranspiration and irrigation water demand if used for basal crop coefficient estimation. Relationships between the analysed vegetation indices and canopy biophysical parameters such as crop height, fraction of cover and leaf area index also were developed for both indices.     

The impacts of mountain pine beetle disturbance on the energy balance of snow during the melt period

Mountain snowpacks provide most of the annual discharge of western US rivers, but the future of water resources in the western USA is tenuous, as climatic changes have resulted in earlier spring melts that have exacerbated summer droughts. Compounding changes to the physical environment are biotic disturbances including that of the mountain pine beetle (MPB), which has decimated millions of acres of western North American forests. At the watershed scale, MPB disturbance increases the peak hydrograph, and at the stand scale, the ‘grey’ phase of MPB canopy disturbance decreases canopy snow interception, increases snow albedo, increases net shortwave radiation, and decreases net longwave radiation versus the ‘red’ phase. Fewer studies have been conducted on the red phase of MPB disturbance and in the mixed coniferous stands that may follow MPB‐damaged forests. We measured the energy balance of four snowpacks representing different stages of MPB damage, management, and recovery: a lodgepole pine stand, an MPB‐infested stand in the red phase, a mixed coniferous stand (representing one successional trajectory), and a clear‐cut (representing reactive management) in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest in Montana, USA. Net longwave radiation was lower in the MPB‐infested stand despite higher basal area and plant area index of the other forests, suggesting that the desiccated needles serve as a less effective thermal buffer against longwave radiative losses. Eddy covariance observations of sensible and latent heat flux indicate that they are of similar but opposite magnitude, on the order of 20 MJ m^?2 during the melt period. Further analyses reveal that net turbulent energy fluxes were near zero because of the temperature and atmospheric vapour pressure encountered during the melt period. Future research should place snow science in the context of forest succession and management and address important uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude of needlefall events. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Titanite dates crystallization: Slow Pb diffusion during super‐solidus re‐equilibration

Titanite can be found in rocks of wide compositional range, is reactive, growing or regrowing during metamorphic and hydrothermal events, and is generally amenable to U–Pb geochronology. Experimental evidence suggest that titanite has a closure temperature for Pb ranging from 550 to 650°C, and thus titanite dates are commonly interpreted as cooling ages. However, this view has been challenged in recent years by evidence from natural titanite which suggests the closure temperature may be significantly higher (up to 800°C). Here, we investigate titanite in an enclave of migmatitic gneiss included within a granite intrusion. The titanite crystals exhibit textural features characteristic of fluid‐mediated mass transfer processes on length scales of <100 µm. These textural features are associated with variation in both Pb concentrations and distinct U–Pb isotopic compositions. Zr‐in‐titanite thermometry indicates that modification of the titanite occurred at temperatures in excess of 840°C, in the presence of a high‐T silicate melt. The Pb concentration gradients preserved in these titanite crystals are used to determine the diffusivity of Pb in titanite under high‐T conditions. We estimate diffusivities ranging from 2 × 10^?22 to 5 × 10^?25 m²/s. These results are significantly lower than experimental data predict yet are consistent with other empirical data on natural titanites, suggesting that Pb diffusivity is similar to that of Sr. Thus our data challenge the wide‐held assumption that U–Pb titanite dates only reflect cooling ages.     

A GIS Approach to Exploring Monetary Value on Enclosure Era Property-Related Maps

Historical enclosure era property-related maps can tell us a great deal about the life and times of communities in the past. This study offers a unique approach to studying the historical landscape by applying GIS techniques to the examination of an eighteenth-century English village. Using novel GIS applications relying on historical maps, the study explores various aspects of the village’s physical and social characteristics. In doing so, the study forges effective linkages between cultural and landscape variables to reveal aspects of the historical landscape in eighteenth-century Britain previously inaccessible to researchers. This, in turn, provides a much more comprehensive and sophisticated template for future use by historical geographers in a number of contexts.