A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

Spatial Variation in the Structure of Kelp Forest Communities Along a Wave Exposure Gradient

Abstract. Four sites were sampled in kelp (Macrocysiis pyrifera) forests occupying rocky bottom habitats along a wave exposure gradient in central California. Consistent betwecn-site differences were found in the three major structural elements - the surface canopy, the undcrstory assemblage, and the ground cover/turf assemblage - of kelp forest communities. Macrocysiis pyrifera was found at all four sites. Nereucyslis tuelkeana only at the most exposed site. The understory kelps Laminaria setchellii and Pterygopltora californica were also characteristic of exposed sites. Articulated coralline algae were more abundant at exposed sites than protected, while fleshy red algae showed the opposite pattern. All four study sites were located along 8.5 km of coastline, and thus were assumed to have available to them the same species pool for colonization. The substrate composition was the same and the amount of unconsolidated substrate was similar at all four sites. We suggest that exposure to wave-generated water motion, through its influence on the surface canopy and therefore on the amount of light reaching the bottom, is responsible for these between-site differences.     

Determination of phospholipid fatty acid structures and stable carbon isotope compositions of deep-sea sediments of the Northwest Pacific, ODP site 1179

Sediment samples ranging from 0.05 to 278 m below sea floor (mbsf) at a Northwest Pacific deep-water (5564 mbsl) site (ODP Leg 191, Site 1179) were analyzed for phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs). Total PLFA concentrations decreased by a factor of three over the first meter of sediment and then decreased at a slower rate to approximately 30 mbsf. The sharp decrease over the first meter corresponds to the depth of nitrate and Mn(IV) reduction as indicated by pore water chemistry. PLFA-based cell numbers at site 1179 had a similar depth profile as that for Acridine orange direct cell counts previously made on ODP site 1149 sediments which have a similar water depth and lithology. The mole percentage of straight chain saturated PLFAs increases with depth, with a large shift between the 0.95 and 3.95 mbsf samples. PLFA stable carbon isotope ratios were determined for sediments from 0.05 to 4.53 mbsf and showed a general trend toward more depleted δ¹³C values with depth. Both of these observations may indicate a shift in the bacterial community with depth across the different redox zones inferred from pore water chemistry data. The PLFA 10me16:0, which has been attributed to the bacterial genera Desulfobacter in many marine sediments, showed the greatest isotopic depletion, decreasing from − 20 to − 35‰ over the first meter of sediment. Pore water chemistry suggested that sulfate reduction was absent or minimal over this same sediment interval. However, 10me16:0 has been shown to be produced by recently discovered anaerobic ammonium oxidizing (anammox) bacteria which are known chemoautotrophs. The increasing depletion in δ¹³C of 10me16:0 with the unusually lower concentration of ammonium and linear decrease of nitrate concentration is consistent with a scenario of anammox bacteria mediating the oxidation of ammonium via nitrite, an intermediate of nitrate reduction.     

Proglacial groundwater storage dynamics under climate change and glacier retreat

Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.     

Effects of lateral velocity heterogeneity under the Nevada Test Site on short-periodP wave amplitudes and travel times

Short-period teleseismicP waves from the Nevada Test Site (NTS) show systematic variations in amplitudes and travel times, with low amplitudes corresponding to fast travel times, suggesting elastic focussing-defocussing effects. Also, the azimuthal amplitude and travel time patterns for events at the Pahute Mesa subsite are systematically different from those at the Yucca Flat subsite, indicating the presence of a near-source component in both the amplitude and travel-time variations. This component is isolated by removing the mean station pattern for all of NTS from the observations. A very-near-source component in the Pahute Mesa observations is also isolated by removing subsite station means from the measurements, whereas the Yucca Flat observations exhibited no coherent very-near-source component. These anomalies are back-projected through laterally homogeneous structure to form thin lens models at various depths. Travel-time delays are predicted from the amplitude variations using the equation for wavefront curvature. The long-wavelength components of the predicted and observed time delays correlate well, at depths of 25 km for the very-near-source component under Pahute Mesa and 160 km for the regional component under NTS. The time delay surfaces predicted by the amplitudes at these depths are mapped into warped velocity discontinuities suitable for the calculation of synthetic seismograms using the Kirchhoff-Helmholtz integral formulation. Both the intersite (near-source) and intrasite (very-near-source) differences in amplitudes are qualitatively predicted very well, although the range of variation is somewhat underpredicted. This deficiency is likely due to the destructive interference of anomalies inherent in back-projection to a single layer.     

Features of coastal upwelling regions that determine net air-sea CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux

The influence of the coastal ocean on global net annual air-sea CO₂ fluxes remains uncertain. However, it is well known that air-sea pCO₂ disequilibria can be large (ocean pCO₂ ranging from ∼400 μatm above atmospheric saturation to ∼250 μatm below) in eastern boundary currents, and it has been hypothesized that these regions may be an appreciable net carbon sink. In addition it has been shown that the high productivity in these regions (responsible for the exceptionally low surface pCO₂) can cause nutrients and inorganic carbon to become more concentrated in the lower layer of the water column over the shelf relative to adjacent open ocean waters of the same density. This paper explores the potential role of the winter season in determining the net annual CO₂ flux in temperate zone eastern boundary currents, using the results from a box model. The model is parameterized and forced to represent the northernmost part of the upwelling region on the North American Pacific coast. Model results are compared to the few summer data that exist in that region. The model is also used to determine the effect that upwelling and downwelling strength have on the net annual CO₂ flux. Results show that downwelling may play an important role in limiting the amount of CO₂ outgassing that occurs during winter. Finally data from three distinct regions on the Pacific coast are compared to highlight the importance of upwelling and downwelling strength in determining carbon fluxes in eastern boundary currents and to suggest that other features, such as shelf width, are likely to be important.     

Growing up green on serpentine soils: Biogeochemistry of serpentine vegetation in the Central Coast Range of California

Serpentine soils derived from the weathering of ultramafic rocks and their metamorphic derivatives (serpentinites) are chemically prohibitive for vegetative growth. Evaluating how serpentine vegetation is able to persist under these chemical conditions is difficult to ascertain due to the numerous factors (climate, relief, time, water availability, etc.) controlling and affecting plant growth. Here, the uptake, incorporation, and distribution of a wide variety of elements into the biomass of serpentine vegetation has been investigated relative to vegetation growing on an adjacent chert-derived soil. Soil pH, electrical conductivity, organic C, total N, soil extractable elements, total soil elemental compositions and plant digestions in conjunction with spider diagrams are utilized to determine the chemical relationships of these soil and plant systems. Plant available Mg and Ca in serpentine soils exceed values assessed in chert soils. Magnesium is nearly 3 times more abundant than Ca in the serpentine soils; however, the serpentine soils are not Ca deficient with Ca concentrations as high as 2235 mg kg⁻¹. Calcium to Mg ratios (Ca:Mg) in both serpentine and chert vegetation are greater than one in both below and above ground tissues. Soil and plant chemistry analyses support that Ca is not a limiting factor for plant growth and that serpentine vegetation is actively moderating Mg uptake as well as tolerating elevated concentrations of bioavailable Mg. Additionally, results demonstrate that serpentine vegetation suppresses the uptake of Fe, Cr, Ni, Mn and Co into its biomass. The suppressed uptake of these metals mainly occurs in the plants’ roots as evident by the comparatively lower metal concentrations present in above ground tissues (twigs, leaves and shoots). This research supports earlier studies that have suggested that ion uptake discrimination and ion suppression in the roots are major mechanisms for serpentine vegetation to tolerate the chemistry of serpentine soils.