Quantifying Data Worth Toward Reducing Predictive Uncertainty

The present study demonstrates a methodology for optimization of environmental data acquisition. Based on the premise that the worth of data increases in proportion to its ability to reduce the uncertainty of key model predictions, the methodology can be used to compare the worth of different data types, gathered at different locations within study areas of arbitrary complexity. The method is applied to a hypothetical nonlinear, variable density numerical model of salt and heat transport. The relative utilities of temperature and concentration measurements at different locations within the model domain are assessed in terms of their ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with predictions of movement of the salt water interface in response to a decrease in fresh water recharge. In order to test the sensitivity of the method to nonlinear model behavior, analyses were repeated for multiple realizations of system properties. Rankings of observation worth were similar for all realizations, indicating robust performance of the methodology when employed in conjunction with a highly nonlinear model. The analysis showed that while concentration and temperature measurements can both aid in the prediction of interface movement, concentration measurements, especially when taken in proximity to the interface at locations where the interface is expected to move, are of greater worth than temperature measurements. Nevertheless, it was also demonstrated that pairs of temperature measurements, taken in strategic locations with respect to the interface, can also lead to more precise predictions of interface movement.     

Stratigraphic simulations of the shelf of the Gulf of Lions: testing subsidence rates and sea‐level curves during the Pliocene and Quaternary

Determining the relative importance of factors interacting to control stratigraphic organization is a key issue in sedimentology. The Pliocene‐Quaternary chronostratigraphy on the Gulf of Lions platform is still poorly constrained, giving rise to different interpretations of the evolution of its subsidence through time. This paper examines the Pliocene‐Quaternary sedimentary filling of the Gulf of Lion's shelf with Dionisos, a numerical stratigraphic model. Our results show that a constant subsidence rate accurately reproduces the observed geometries, whereas a varying subsidence rate reproduces them only if the acceleration of subsidence is limited. At this time‐scale, a third‐order eustatic curve is also reappraised: a higher resolution curve (built using δ¹⁸O measurements) gives a more realistic restitution of our stratigraphic markers. Finally, the constant subsidence rate and sediment fluxes implied in these modellings are discussed relative to climate and local factors of sedimentation.     

Switching of a paleo-ice stream in northwest Svalbard

Ice streams are the fast-flowing zones of ice sheets that can discharge a large flux of ice. The glaciated western Svalbard margin consists of several cross-shelf troughs which are the former ice stream drainage pathways during the Pliocene–Pleistocene glaciations. From an integrated analysis of high-resolution multibeam swath-bathymetric data and several high-resolution two-dimensional reflection seismic profiles across the western and northwestern Svalbard margin we infer the ice stream flow directions and the deposition centres of glacial debris that the ice streams deposited on the outer margin. Our results show that the northwestern margin of Svalbard experienced a switching of a major ice stream. Based on correlation with the regional seismic stratigraphy as well as the results from ODP 911 on Yermak Plateau and ODP 986 farther south on the western margin of Spitsbergen, off Van Mijenfjord, we find that first a northwestward flowing ice stream developed during initial northern hemispheric cooling (starting ～2.8–2.6 Ma). A switch in ice stream flow direction to the present-day Kongsfjorden cross-shelf trough took place during a glaciation at ～1.5 Ma or probably later during an intensive major glaciation phase known as the ‘Mid-Pleistocene Revolution’ starting at ～1.0 Ma. The seismic and bathymetric data suggest that the switch was abrupt rather than gradual and we attribute it to the reaching of a tipping point when growth of the Svalbard ice sheet had reached a critical thickness and the ice sheet could overcome a topographic barrier.     

“We Don’t Take the Pledge”: Environmentality and environmental skepticism at the epicenter of US wind energy development

This study analyzes pro-wind, “anti-environmental” discourses prevalent among key stakeholders in Nolan County, Texas, the epicenter of US wind power. We draw upon interviews conducted within a Q-method study to examine environmental views held by key actors in wind-farm development. We frame our analysis within the theoretical field that engages the formation of environmental subjects, defined as the process through which individuals and communities align their environmental practices with state ends. We argue that this is a process that can be incomplete or in tension with other subject positions, which together may lead to unexpected environmental views. We introduce “environmental skepticism,” defined as a rejection of ecological science steeped in deep anthropocentrism and possessive individualism, as a dominant counter-narrative informing certain environmental subjectivities. The remainder of the paper describes Texas wind stakeholders’ views or subject positions on energy and the environment and reveals how environmental skepticism is not overturned even as renewable energy supports the local economy. We analyze wind stakeholders’ environmental subjectivity in terms of emergent subject positions as “reflexive environmental skepticism,” a view that accepts the economic products, processes, and policy innovations advocated by ecological modernization without accepting the core claim that innovations are required to adapt to environmental change.     

The hydrochemical identification of groundwater flowing to the Bet She’an-Harod multiaquifer system (Lower Jordan Valley) by rare earth elements,yttrium, stable isotopes (H,O) and Tritium

The Bet She’an and Harod Valleys in Israel are regional recipients and mixing zones for groundwater draining from a multiple aquifer system, which includes carbonate and basalt aquifers and deep-seated pressurized brines. The aquifers drain through two types of outlets, distinct and mixed. The latter type is mainly conditioned by the occurrence of fault-blocks related to the Jordan Rift system, which act as connecting media between the aquifers and facilitate interaquifer flow. Conjoint application of rare earth element distribution and water isotopes enables detection of the local areas replenishment by rainfall infiltration and, in connection with the position of wells or springs, the identification of groundwater flow paths. Once stationary equilibria are established changes of REY composition between REY in groundwater and their surface adsorption, are negligible. In areas with little soil coverage and vegetation even recharge over young Tertiary and diagenetic Cretaceous limestones is distinguishable by their REY distribution patterns. Groundwater recharged over Tertiary limestones show higher REY abundance and more significant Ce anomalies than those derived from the Cretaceous limestones. Weathering of alkali olivine basalts leads to REY patterns in groundwater depleted in the middle REE. The improved knowledge of the hydrological systems is thought to be useful for regional hydrogeological modeling and for designing rational water management schemes.     

ANIE: A mathematical algorithm for automated indexing of planar deformation features in quartz grains

Abstract– Planar deformation features (PDFs) in quartz, one of the most commonly used diagnostic indicators of shock metamorphism, are planes of amorphous material that follow crystallographic orientations, and can thus be distinguished from non‐shock‐induced fractures in quartz. The process of indexing data for PDFs from universal‐stage measurements has traditionally been performed using a manual graphical method, a time‐consuming process in which errors can easily be introduced. A mathematical method and computer algorithm, which we call the Automated Numerical Index Executor (ANIE) program for indexing PDFs, was produced, and is presented here. The ANIE program is more accurate and faster than the manual graphical determination of Miller–Bravais indices, as it allows control of the exact error used in the calculation and removal of human error from the process.     

Imaging X-ray Polarimeter for Solar Flares (IXPS)

We describe the design of a balloon-borne Imaging X-ray Polarimeter for Solar flares (IXPS). This novel instrument, a Time Projection Chamber (TPC) for photoelectric polarimetry, will be capable of measuring polarization at the few percent level in the 20?C50 keV energy range during an M- or X-class flare, and will provide imaging information at the ??10 arcsec level. The primary objective of such observations is to determine the directivity of nonthermal high-energy electrons producing solar hard X-rays, and hence to learn about the particle acceleration and energy release processes in solar flares. Secondary objectives include the separation of the thermal and nonthermal components of the flare X-ray emissions and the separation of photospheric albedo fluxes from direct emissions.     

Melt in the impact breccias from the Eyreville drill cores,Chesapeake Bay impact structure,USA

The center of the 35.3 Ma Chesapeake Bay impact structure (85 km diameter) was drilled during 2005/2006 in an ICDP–USGS drilling project. The Eyreville drill cores include polymict impact breccias and associated rocks (1397–1551 m depth). Tens of melt particles from these impactites were studied by optical and electron microscopy, electron microprobe, and microRaman spectroscopy, and classified into six groups: m1—clear or brownish melt, m2—brownish melt altered to phyllosilicates, m3—colorless silica melt, m4—melt with pyroxene and plagioclase crystallites, m5—dark brown melt, and m6—melt with globular texture. These melt types have partly overlapping major element abundances, and large compositional variations due to the presence of schlieren, poorly mixed melt phases, partly digested clasts, and variable crystallization and alteration. The different melt types also vary in their abundance with depth in the drill core. Based on the chemical data, mixing calculations were performed to determine possible precursors of these melt particles. The calculations suggest that most melt types formed mainly from the thick sedimentary section of the target sequence (mainly the Potomac Formation), but an additional crystalline basement (schist/gneiss) precursor is likely for the most abundant melt types m2 and m5. Sedimentary rocks with compositions similar to those of the melt particles are present among the Eyreville core samples. Therefore, sedimentary target rocks were the main precursor of the Eyreville melt particles. However, the composition of the melt particles is not only the result of the precursor composition but also the result of changes during melting and solidification, as well as postimpact alteration, which must also be considered. The variability of the melt particle compositions reflects the variety of target rocks and indicates that there was no uniform melt source. Original heterogeneities, resulting from melting of different target rocks, may be preserved in impactites of some large impact structures that formed in volatile‐rich targets, because no large melt body exists, in which homogenization would have taken place.