A nested multivariate copula approach to hydrometeorological simulations of spring floods: the case of the Richelieu River (Québec,Canada) record flood

Floods have potentially devastating consequences on populations, industries and environmental systems. They often result from a combination of effects from meteorological, physiographic and anthropogenic natures. The analysis of flood hazards under a multivariate perspective is primordial to evaluate several of the combined factors. This study analyzes spring flood-causing mechanisms in terms of the occurrence, frequency, duration and intensity of precipitation as well as temperature events and their combinations previous to and during floods using frequency analysis as well as a proposed multivariate copula approach along with hydrometeorological indices. This research was initiated over the Richelieu River watershed (Quebec, Canada), with a particular emphasis on the 2011 spring flood, constituting one of the most damaging events over the last century for this region. Although some work has already been conducted to determine certain causes of this record flood, the use of multivariate statistical analysis of hydrologic and meteorological events has not yet been explored. This study proposes a multivariate flood risk model based on fully nested Archimedean Frank and Clayton copulas in a hydrometeorological context. Several combinations of the 2011 Richelieu River flood-causing meteorological factors are determined by estimating joint and conditional return periods with the application of the proposed model in a trivariate case. The effects of the frequency of daily frost/thaw episodes in winter, the cumulative total precipitation fallen between the months of November and March and the 90th percentile of rainfall in spring on peak flow and flood duration are quantified, as these combined factors represent relevant drivers of this 2011 Richelieu River record flood. Multiple plausible and physically founded flood-causing scenarios are also analyzed to quantify various risks of inundation.     

The POM-DOM piezophilic microorganism continuum(PDPMC)—The role of piezophilic microorganisms in the global ocean carbon cycle

The deep ocean piezosphere accounts for a significant part of the global ocean,hosts active and diverse microbial communities which probably play a more important role than hitherto recognized in the global ocean carbon cycle.The conventional biological pump concept and the recently proposed microbial carbon pump mechanism provide a foundation for our understanding of the role of microorganisms in cycling of carbon in the ocean.However,there are significant gaps in our knowledge and a lack of mechanistic understanding of the processes of microbially-mediated production,transformation,degradation,and export of marine dissolved and particulate organic matter(DOM and POM)in the deep ocean and the ecological consequence.Here we propose the POM-DOM piezophilic microorganism continuum(PDPMC)conceptual model,to address these important biogeochemical processes in the deep ocean.We propose that piezophilic microorganisms(bacteria and archaea)play a pivotal role in deep ocean carbon cycle where microbial production of exoenzymes,enzymatic breakdown of DOM and transformation of POM fuels the rapid cycling of marine organic matter,and serve as the primary driver for carbon cycle in the deep ocean.     

Earliest human remains in Eurasia: New 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Dmanisi hominid-bearing levels,Georgia

Several hominid remains have been discovered in the open-air site of Dmanisi (Georgia), the oldest prehistoric site in Eurasia. Two major arguments prove that this site is close in age to the Plio-Pleistocene boundary: a Villafranchian fauna and the morphological characteristics of hominid remains recently ascribed to Homo georgicus. Direct dating of the lower hominid-bearing level was carried out on volcanic glass and minerals using the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method. The concordant results from two different sampled locations allow the determination of the age of the earliest human presence in Eurasia. This radioisotopic result strengthens the argument that the first dispersal of hominids outside Africa occurred at least 1.8 Ma ago.     

Southern hemispheric westerlies control the spatial distribution of modern sediments in Laguna Potrok Aike,Argentina

We studied the internal lake processes that control the spatial distribution and characteristics of modern sediments at the ICDP (International Continental Scientific Drilling Program) deep drilling site in Laguna Potrok Aike, southern Patagonia, Argentina. Sediment distribution patterns were investigated using a dense grid of 63 gravity cores taken throughout the lake basin and 40 additional shoreline samples. Analysis of the surficial sediment distribution points to distinct internal depositional dynamics induced by wind-driven lake internal currents. Distribution maps illustrate that the spatial characteristics of analysed variables are linked to high erosional wave activity. Persistent wave action and littoral erosion along all shores, especially the eastern shore, is caused by prevailing Southern Hemispheric Westerlies. Several sediment variables (grain size, benthic diatoms, total inorganic carbon and calcium) indicate re-suspension of littoral sediment followed by re-distribution to profundal accumulation areas near the eastern shore. Variations within the catchment influence sediment characteristics in the north-eastern bay. That area is characterized by different mineralogical and sedimentological conditions as well as greater accumulation of pollen, inorganic carbon and diatoms. These findings are related to the influence of episodic inflow into this bay. Spatial differences in stable isotope values throughout the lake suggest that ephemeral tributaries around the lake basin may also contribute to the detected spatial sediment variations.     

Winter climate change at different temporal scales in Vaccinium myrtillus, an Arctic and alpine dwarf shrub

Snow cover strongly influences plant growth in Arctic and alpine ecosystems. Snow characteristics and snowmelt timing are likely to change in a warmer climate. We studied year rings and shoot growth of the dwarf shrub bilberry ( Vaccinium myrtillus ), and species abundances of the vegetation, in response to early or late snowmelt at a study site in the Central Alps, near Davos, Switzerland. Snowmelt was manipulated on experimental plots for 3 and 30 years. Additional plots were set up along a natural snowmelt gradient, and at high and low elevation. Growth ring data showed an increasing trend in annual growth increment over the last 20 years, especially in the extraordinarily hot summer of 2003. Comparing high and low elevation sites, growth rings were wider at low elevation, but only in cold years. In years with relatively cold summers, however, xylem ring width was greater in plots with late rather than early snowmelt along the natural snowmelt gradient, possibly indicating drought stress in early snowmelt plots. Snow cover had a strong influence on species abundances along the natural snowmelt gradient, and change (not yet significant) was beginning to be seen in plots with 30 years of snow manipulation. Our results indicate that beneficial effects of early snowmelt for shrub growth may be offset in cold summers. Although early snowmelt prolongs the growing season, harsh conditions and frost events early in the growing season may become more likely, and hamper plant growth, and this could affect plant growth in all Arctic and alpine snow-dominated ecosystems.     

Estimation of Vertical Continuous Stochastic Parameters from Seismic Reflection Data

This paper presents a scheme to invert reflected seismic wave fields for vertical spatial statistics of the Earth’s continuous stochastic velocity distribution. The forward model is based on a single scattering theory, where a seismogram is modeled as a convolution of a source wavelet and stochastic reflectivity, which obeys a von Kármán autocorrelation function. Tests with synthetic data indicate that the method presented here recovers vertical characteristic length from seismic reflection data that is similar to that of the original velocity model; however, the inversion does not reliably recover the Hurst exponent, ν. The input wavelet’s power spectrum is a free parameter in the inversion and is estimated as well, but is band-limited relative to the original source wavelet. Noise degrades the quality of the estimates of the stochastic parameters such that the recovered stochastic parameters are biased according to the power spectrum of the noise.     

The genetic relationship between mafic dike swarms and plutonic reservoirs in the mesozoic of central chile (30°–33°45′S): insights from AMS and geochemistry

Five mafic dike swarms between 30° and 33°45′S were studied for their geochemical signature and kinematics of magma flow directions by means of AMS data. In the Coastal Range of central Chile (33°−33°45′S), Middle Jurassic dike swarms (Concón and Cartagena dike swarms, CMDS and CrMDS, respectively) and an Early Cretaceous dike swarm (El Tabo Dike Swarm, ETDS) display the presence of dikes of geochemically enriched (high-Ti) and depleted (low-Ti) basaltic composition. These dikes show geochemical patterns that are different from the composition of mafic enclaves of the Middle Jurassic Papudo-Quintero Complex, and this suggests that the dikes were injected from reservoirs not related to the plutonic complex. The mantle source appears to be a depleted mantle for Jurassic dikes and a heterogeneous-enriched lithospheric mantle for Cretaceous dikes. In the ETDS, vertical and gently plunging magma flow vectors were estimated for enriched and depleted dikes, respectively, which suggest, together with variations in dike thickness, that reservoirs were located at different depths for each dike family. In the Elqui Dike Swarm (EDS) and Limarí Mafic Dike Swarm (LMDS), geochemical patterns are similar to those of the mafic enclaves of the Middle Jurassic plutons. In the LMDS, east to west magma flow vectors are coherent with injection from neighbouring pluton located to the east. In the EDS, some dikes show geochemical and magma flow patterns supporting the same hypothesis. Accordingly, dikes do not necessarily come from deep reservoir; they may propagate in the upper crust from coeval shallow pluton chamber. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Experimental boron isotope fractionation between tourmaline and fluid: confirmation from in situ analyses by secondary ion mass spectrometry and from Rayleigh fractionation modelling

Tourmaline synthesised in an experiment with low boron excess was analysed in situ by secondary ion mass spectrometry. It revealed significant B isotope zonation with ¹¹B/¹⁰B ratios increasing in the growth direction of the crystals. Trend, magnitude and absolute values strongly support results from high-B-excess isotope fractionation experiments. Furthermore, the closed system B-isotopic evolution of the experimental fluid was modelled by Rayleigh fractionation. The model results are in excellent agreement with the measured B-isotope composition of the run-product fluid. Consequently, low-element-excess experiments are proposed as an ideal approach to determine fluid-solid isotope fractionation factors for systems that are characterised by Rayleigh fractionation.     

Modelling δC and δO in the solution layer on stalagmite surfaces

We derive equations describing the evolution of the carbon and oxygen isotope composition of the bicarbonate in a calcite precipitating solution on the surface of a stalagmite using a classical Rayleigh approach. The combined effects of calcite precipitation, degassing of CO₂ and the buffering effect of the water reservoir are taken into account. Whereas δ¹³C shows a progressive increase to a final constant value, δ¹⁸O shows an initial isotopic enrichment, which exponentially decays due to the buffering effect of the water reservoir. The calculated evolution is significantly different for both carbon and oxygen isotopes than derived in a recent paper [Dreybrodt W. (2008) Evolution of the isotopic composition of carbon and oxygen in a calcite precipitating H₂O-CO₂-CaCO₃ solution and the related isotopic composition of calcite in stalagmites. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta72, 4712-4724.].Furthermore, we discuss the isotopic evolution of the bicarbonate in the solution for long residence times on the stalagmite surface, i.e., for t→∞. The equilibrium isotope ratio of the bicarbonate is then determined by isotopic exchange between the cave atmosphere and the bicarbonate in the solution and can be calculated by equilibrium isotope fractionation. For strongly ventilated caves exchange with the cave atmosphere will result in higher δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values than those observed in a pure Rayleigh distillation scenario, for sparsely ventilated caves it will result in lower δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values.