Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.     

Snow cover variability across central Canada (1978–2002) derived from satellite passive microwave data

Twenty-four winter seasons (1978–2002) of mean February snow water equivalent (SWE) values were analyzed in an exploration of the spatial pattern of temporal variability in snow cover across the non-mountainous interior of Canada. The SWE data were derived from space-borne passive microwave brightness temperatures processed with a land cover-sensitive suite of algorithms. Spatial patterns in the frequency and amount of variability were investigated on an annual basis through comparisons with average trends over all 24 years. Changes in temporal variability through time were also investigated by comparing three eight year time periods to general trends. Analyses were synthesized at the ecozone scale in order to link results both to potential land cover influences on algorithm performance and climatological variability in SWE. Prairie and northern ecozones were typically found to be the most variable in terms of SWE magnitude. Analyses indicate that non-treed land cover classes are generally more variable than treed classes. The results also indicate that extreme weather events appear to be occurring with increasing consistency in the Prairie and Arctic regions. Discerning climatologically significant variability in the time series, compared to algorithm-related issues can be a challenge, but in an era of eroding surface observing networks the passive microwave time series represents an important resource for monitoring and detecting trends and variability in terrestrial snow cover.     

Extraction of rhyolitic component of Vedde microtephra from minerogenic lake sediments

A technique is described for the extraction of rhyolitic microtephra from inorganic Lateglacial lake sediments. This technique was successfully applied by Lowe and Turney (1996) and is an adaption of the method described by Pilcher & Hall (1992) for application to Holocene peat deposits. It uses a density separation procedure to concentrate any microtephra component in lake sediments and was applied to the investigation of a lake sediment succession from a small basin in NE Scotland. Using this approach is was possible to define quantitatively for the first time the presence of the Vedde Ash tephra layer on the British Isles.     

Geometric constraints on composition of sediment derived from erosional landscapes

Although unroofing sequences are well known in the stratigraphic record, there is no general theory for estimating relevant basic quantities such as the time history of sediment production from a particular unit or the degree of mixing between successive units. Here we investigate the production of sediment from layered source rocks that are milled off by steady-state erosional topography. The shape of the sediment-production function for milling off a thin horizontal layer is given by the derivative of the hypsometric function, in the form of area contained within contours as a function of contour altitude. The time-scale for the production function, the ‘topographic mixing time’, is set by the topographic relief divided by the uplift rate. The production function for a sharp transition from one unit to another is given directly by the hypsometric function. The effects of stratal dip parallel to the mean slope of the erosional topography and finite layer thickness can be accounted for to a first approximation by simple geometric corrections to the mixing time. Finite layer thickness also has the effect of smoothing the production function although most natural hypsometric functions are smooth enough that this effect is relatively weak. The quality of an unroofing sequence can be measured in terms of the ‘sharpness’ of separation of successive peaks in sediment production produced by milling off a sequence of geometrically similar layers. This peak sharpness can be parameterized by a ratio of the interval between successive peaks in sediment production to topographic mixing time. By this measure, the quality of unroofing sequences is controlled by two parameters: the ratio of layer thickness to topographic relief, and the dip angle. The dip angle in concert with topographic mixing exerts a strong control on the degree of signal segregation; in particular, production of cleanly segregated signals for dip angles greater than about 15° requires very high ratios of layer thickness to relief. Hence identification of distinct unroofing sequences may place significant and useful constraints on the attitude and/or thickness of units in the eroding stratigraphy.     

Improved ocean-geoid resolution from retracked ERS-1 satellite altimeter waveforms

The ocean geoid can be inferred from the topography of the mean sea surface. Satellite altimeters transmit radar pulses and determine the return traveltime to measure sea-surface height. The ERS-1 altimeter stacks 51 consecutive radar reflections on board the satellite to a single waveform. Tracking the time shift of the waveform gives an estimate of the distance to the sea surface. We retrack the ERS-1 radar traveltimes using a model that is focused on the leading edge of the waveforms. While earlier methods regarded adjacent waveforms as independent statistical events, we invert a whole sequence of waveforms simultaneously for a spline geoid solution. Smoothness is controlled by spectral constraints on the spline coefficients. Our geoid solutions have an average spectral density equal to the expected power spectrum of the true geoid. The coherence of repeat track solutions indicates a spatial resolution of 31  km, as compared to 41  km resolution for the ERS-1 Ocean Product. While the resolution of the latter deteriorates to 47  km for wave heights above 2  m, our geoid solution maintains its resolution of 31  km for rough sea. Retracking altimeter waveform data and constraining the solution by a spectral model leads to a realistic geoid solution with significantly improved along-track resolution.     

A Note on Extension Variances in IR2

Matheron (1971) proposed an approximation of the extension variance in IR. We propose in this note an extension of this formula in IR ² , based on a MacLaurin formula. Its application is shown in an example, the estimation of the maximum depressional storage of a soil surface.     

A new look at the isotropy of narrow-line emission in extragalactic radio sources

We undertake a quantitative investigation, using Monte Carlo simulations, of the amount by which quasars are expected to exceed radio galaxies in optical luminosity in the context of the 'receding torus' model. We compare these simulations with the known behaviour of the [O  III ] λ5007 and [O  II ] λ3727 emission lines and conclude that [O  III ] is the better indicator of the strength of the underlying non-stellar continuum.     

Kr and Xe isotopes from spontaneous fission of 248Cm and 250Cf: Comparison with noble gases in carbonaceous chondrites

Relative yields of Kr and Xe isotopes from the spontaneous fission of ²⁴⁸Cm and ²⁵⁰Cf have been determined mass spectrometrically. The yields are as follows: ⁸³Kr/⁸⁴Kr/⁸⁵Kr/⁸⁶Kr = 0.223/0.458/0.596/ ≡ 1.00 and 0.306/0.582/0.793/ ≡ 1.00;¹³¹Xe/¹³²Xe/¹³⁴Xe/¹³⁶Xe = 0.486/0.819/1.075/ ≡ 1.00 and 0.343/0.506/0.851/ ≡ 1.00 from ²⁴⁸Cm and ²⁵⁰Cf, respectively. The Xe yields from ²⁴⁸Cm agree with an earlier determination by Leich et al. [24]. Neither of these yield patterns matches that of “fissiogenic” Kr and Xe in carbonaceous chondrites and hence ²⁴⁸Cm and ²⁵⁰Cf are ruled out as progenitors of the meteoritic Kr and Xe. In general, none of the spontaneously fissioning nuclides of actinide elements can be identified as a possible progenitor. Even the mixtures of actinides, including a combination of ²⁴⁸Cm and ²⁵⁰Cm, are unsuitable. The origin of “anomalous” Kr and Xe in carbonaceous chondrites must then be traced either to the spontaneous fission of a superheavy element or to peculiarities in specific nucleosynthetic reactions.