Climatic Implications of the Kyoto Protocol: The Contribution of International Spillover

We explore the long-run impact of the Kyoto Protocol commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions under various assumptions about the international spillover arising from actions led by the industrialised countries. International spillover comprises many complex processes including substitution due to price effects, diffusion of technology innovations, and policy and political spillovers. We represent these in terms of their aggregate impact on emission intensities over the next century. Limiting industrialised country emissions alone has limited environmental benefit if there is no international spillover; in our base case atmospheric concentrations by the end of the century rise to 730 ppm. However, this implies a large divergence of emission intensities, contrary to both empirical long term aggregate trends, and to identifiable influences towards convergence associated with economic globalisation. In contrast, if spillover leads to convergence of emission intensities by 2100, atmospheric concentrations are kept to below 560 ppm and are close to stabilising. Weargue that zero or negative international spillover, as assumed in manyanalyses, is not credible; we estimate the most likely range for the international spillover parameter in our model to be 0.5–1.0. For our base scenario this would imply a mean global average temperature change from pre-industrial levels by 2100 of 2.7–3.4 °C instead of 4.2 °C,and rising at only 0.15–0.29 °C/decade instead of 0.45 °C/decade.Long-run sea-level rise is greatly curtailed. The regional benefits to the industrialised countries are also magnified because of the spillover to developing county emissions. Although the aggregate degree of spillover is uncertain, the available evidence suggests that it will be important and environmentally beneficial in aggregate. Spillover will help to spread the global effectiveness of the Kyoto first period and subsequent commitments, and deserves much further scrutiny.     

Market instruments and the neoliberalisation of land management in rural Australia

Increasing penetration by the market into the governing of agri-environments, and the use of market-oriented approaches in an attempt to produce more sustainable outcomes, is a characteristic feature of what scholars have called the ‘neoliberalisation of nature’. While accepting that neoliberal forms of governing tend to extend market relations into new domains, a number of scholars have argued that they may at the same time create spaces of resistance, open up progressive political possibilities, or incorporate alternative rationalities of governing. This literature has so far focused primarily on the policy and/or programme level with limited connection made to the growing body of research that explores landholder responses to specific market instruments. We address this gap by focusing on a market instrument – Wimmera Habitat Tender – in the State of Victoria, Australia, which aims to provide incentives for farmers in managing native vegetation. This case study explores how a specific tender-based market instrument seeks to construct natural resource managers as neoliberal subjects, as well as the complex ways in which farmers contest or resist the neoliberal governing of their agri-environmental practices. Through our analysis we contend that closer scrutiny of how the techniques underpinning market-based environmental instruments are taken up or resisted contributes to a more robust understanding of the environmental possibilities created by market instruments, as well as the challenges involved in attempts to neoliberalise nature.     

High‐frequency storm event isotope sampling reveals time‐variant transit time distributions and influence of diurnal cycles

High‐frequency sampling of stable water isotopes in precipitation and stream water during winter and summer storm events was carried out in a 2·3 km² lowland agricultural catchment. During peak flows of monitored events, the responses of δ²H and δ¹⁸O were comparable and inferred the dominance (ca 70%) of ‘old’ pre‐event water. Transit Time Distribution (TTD) inferred by a gamma function were fitted (Nash–Sutcliffe = 0·8) and were also similar for δ²H and δ¹⁸O. However, the shape (α) and scaling (β) parameters were markedly different for summer and winter events. Consequently, when antecedent wetness was high, mean transit times were in the order of days; when drier, they increased to months. Moreover, while the responses of δ²H and δ¹⁸O exhibited similar gradual recovery to pre‐event conditions during winter hydrograph recessions, they differed dramatically on summer recessions. Time series analysis showed that δ²H isotope content was correlated with the diurnal cycle of air temperature, suggesting an evaporative fractionation pattern which could be reproduced by a temperature‐based first‐order autoregressive model. The heavier δ¹⁸O isotope showed no evidence for such diurnal variability. The study highlights the utility of high‐frequency stable isotope sampling to explore the time‐variant nature of TTDs. Furthermore, it shows that the time of sampling in a diurnal cycle may have crucial significance for interpreting stream isotope signatures, particularly δ²H. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural deformation and sedimentation in an active Caldera, Rabaul, Papua New Guinea

Recent seismic and tectonic activity in Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea, suggests that magma is accumulating at a shallow depth beneath this partially submerged structure and that a new volcano may be developing. Changes in onshore elevation since 1971 (as much as 2 m on south Matupit Island) indicate that rapid and large-scale uplifts have occurred on the seafloor near the center of the caldera. The frequency of seismic events within the caldera has also increased during this period. Earthquake locations define an elliptical ring surrounding the center of this uplift within the caldera.A marine geophysical survey in 1982 by the U.S. Geological Survey's R/V “S.P. Lee” in Rabaul Caldera shows the development of a bulge in the seafloor near the center of the caldera. High-resolution seismic reflection profiles show that this bulge consists of two domal uplifts bounded and separated by two major north-south-trending fault zones. Deformed sediments overlie these zones; a prominent slump flanks the area of the bulge.Five major acoustic units were identified in the seismic reflection profiles: an acoustic basement and four sedimentary units consisting of irregularly layered, cross-layered, contorted, and well-layered sequences. The acoustic basement is probably composed of crystalline volcanic rocks, and the layered acoustic units are probably sediments, primarily ash deposited in different environments. The cross-layered, irregularly layered, and contorted units appear to have been deposited in a dynamic environment subjected to strong currents, seismicity, and/or mass wasting, while the well-layered units were deposited in a low-energy environment. Locally, well-layered sequences interfinger with the other sedimentary units, indicating a transitional environment that alternated between high-energy and low-energy depositional processes.A submarine channel cuts most of the acoustic units and appears to be the conduit for sediment transport out of the caldera; it occupies an older buried channel north of the caldera that is presently being exhumed. In the south, active erosion of well-layered sediments is taking place. What are believed to be several young volcanic cones also disrupt the depositional layers.We conclude that the bulge in the seafloor and the associated fault zones are a result of emplacement of magma at a shallow depth. Contorted sediment and slumps adjacent to the bulge are probably the result of uplift and seismic activity. The pattern of seismicity appears to reflect increased magma pressure at depth beneath the caldera floor. This activity may eventually lead to an eruption.     

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa

Rainfall over eastern Africa (10°S–10°N; 35°E–50°E) is bimodal, with seasonal maxima during the "long rains" of March–April–May (MAM) and the "short rains" of October–November–December (OND). Below average precipitation during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa can have devastating long-term impacts on water availability and agriculture. Here, we examine the forcing of drought during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The forcing of eastern Africa precipitation and circulation by SSTs is tested using ten ensemble simulations of a global weather forecast model forced by 1950–2010 observed global SSTs. Since the 1980s, Indo-Pacific SSTs have forced more frequent droughts spanning consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa. The increased frequency of dry conditions is linked to warming SSTs over the Indo-west Pacific and to a lesser degree to Pacific Decadal Variability. During MAM, long-term warming of tropical west Pacific SSTs from 1950–2010 has forced statistically significant precipitation reductions over eastern Africa. The warming west Pacific SSTs have forced changes in the regional lower tropospheric circulation by weakening the Somali Jet, which has reduced moisture and rainfall over the Horn of Africa. During OND, reductions in precipitation over recent decades are oftentimes overshadowed by strong year-to-year precipitation variability forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.     

Touchable topography: 3D printing elevation data and structural models to overcome the issue of scale

The fundamental problem of geology is scale. Geological length scales range from angstroms for atoms to thousands of kilometres for planets. Geological processes are often very slow (and geological events so very infrequent). Since the beginning of our discipline, it has been the business of geologists to integrate observations at a variety of length and time scales to answer questions about Earth's history and to make predictions about its future. While this may sound like one of the most academic of pursuits, multi‐billion dollar decisions are routinely made by governments and the largest multi‐national corporations on the basis of geological studies that, for example, model groundwater or petroleum occurrence.