Assessment of drought hazard,exposure, vulnerability,and risk for rice cultivation in the Mun River Basin in Thailand

Natural Hazards - When assessing drought risk, most studies focus on hazard and vulnerability, paying less attention to exposure. Here, we propose a comprehensive drought risk assessment scheme...     

Detrital zircon U-Pb-He double dating: A method of quantifying long- and short-term exhumation rates in collisional orogens

A U-Pb-He double-dating method is applied to detrital zircons with core-rim structure from the Ganges River in order to determine average short- and long-term exhumation rates for the Himalayas. Long-term rates are calculated from the U/Pb ages of metamorphic rims of the grains that formed during the Himalayan orogeny and their crystallization temperatures, which are calculated from the Ti-in-zircon thermometer. Short-term rates are calculated from(U-Th)/He ages of the grains with appropriate closure temperatures. The results show that short-term rates for the Himalayas, which range from 0.70 ± 0.09 to 2.67 ± 0.40 km/Myr and average 1.75 ± 0.59(1±) km/Myr, are higher and more varied than the long-term rates, which range from 0.84 ± 0.16 to 1.85 ± 0.35 km/Myr and average 1.26 ± 0.25(1±) km/Myr. The differences between the long-term and short-term rates can be attributed to continuous exhumation of the host rocks in different mechanisms in continental collision orogen. The U/Pb ages of 44.0 ± 3.7 to 18.3 ± 0.5 Ma for the zircon rims indicate a protracted episode of ~25 Myr for regional metamorphism of the host rocks at deeper crust, whereas the(U-Th)/He ages of 42.2 ± 1.8 to 1.3 ± 0.2 Ma for the zircon grains represent a protracted period of ~40 Myr for exposure of the host rocks to shallower crustal level. In particular, the oldest(U-Th)/He ages of the zircon grains are close to the oldest U/Pb ages for the rims, indicating that some parcels of the rocks that contain zircons were rapidly exhumed from deep to shallow levels in the stage of collisional orogeny. On the other hand, some parcels of the rocks may have been carried upwards by thrust faults in the post-collisional stage. The parcels could be carried upwards by the thrust faults that steepen as they near the surface, or by transient movement faults so that areas of rapid exhumation became areas of slow exhumation and visa versa on a time scale of a few Myr in order to maintain the continuous exhumation. In this regard, the Ganges River must be preferentially sampling areas that are currently undergoing above average rates of uplift.     

A comparison of biohydrodynamic interaction within mangrove and saltmarsh boundaries

Mangrove forests and saltmarshes are recognized for their roles in wave and current attenuation, although a comparison of in situ observations between woody and herbaceous plants is needed in order to understand the different mechanisms of bio‐physical interaction within coastal wetlands. The aim of our study was to compare the mechanisms of flow reduction and energy dissipation by mangrove trees and saltmarsh grass in a subtropical area where tidal currents dominate. Fieldwork was conducted to measure the hydrodynamic processes occurring at the boundaries between a bare mudflat and vegetated tidal flat, as the flow transitions from a bare mudflat to either mangrove or saltmarsh. Synchronous acoustic Doppler velocimetry (ADV) measurements at three sites revealed that the mangrove was more effective than the saltmarsh grass at flow reduction. In addition, a considerable rotation in flow direction was observed as the flow entered the mangrove trees, while rotation was considerably less pronounced within the saltmarsh edge. The mechanism for this difference was explained through a combination of changes in drag force and eddy viscosity over the two vegetation types. Although overall the mangrove was observed to dissipate energy more effectively than the saltmarsh, the relative efficiency of the vegetation at dissipating turbulent energy was found to vary with the maximum water level of tidal cycle. When the maximum water level remained below the mangrove canopy bottom (‘bio‐line’), the energy dissipation ability of the mangrove was relatively low, as a result of the presence of rigid, sparse trunks rather than denser saltmarsh grass found near the bed; when the maximum water level was sufficiently high to reach the mangrove canopy, the ability of the mangrove to dissipate energy was significantly increased, becoming more effective than the saltmarsh grass. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

人与保护区：理解态度差异 提高保护成效

When the attitudes of local people towards wildlife and conservation are not aligned with those of other stakeholders, significant conflicts can result, potentially undermining conservation efforts. We collected attitudinal data from 171 local people and 59 governmental staff from a Nature Reserve in southwestern China. These attitudinal questions covered key topics of ecosystem services, protected areas and human-wildlife coexistence. Statistically significant (p<0.05) similarities of responses between local people and staff were identified and the nature of any disparity was investigated. The majority of attitudes relating to protected areas (60%) and coexistence (100%) were statistically similar between the two groups, unlike 25% of responses relating to ecosystem services. Few characteristics of staff were statistically associated with their attitudes, whereas responses from local people were frequently associated with sub-village. Such attitudinal studies inform recommendations that consider the potential for future conflicts that might persist following attitudinal disparity between two key stakeholders.     

Reynolds number dependence of mixing in a lock-exchange system from direct numerical and large eddy simulations

Turbulent mixing of water masses of different temperatures and salinities is an important process for both coastal and large-scale ocean circulation. It is, however, difficult to capture computationally. One of the reasons is that mixing in the ocean occurs at a wide range of complexity, with the Reynolds number reaching , or even higher.In this study, we continue to investigate whether large eddy simulation (LES) can be a reliable computational tool for stratified mixing in turbulent oceanic flows. LES is attractive because it can be times faster than a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of stratified mixing in turbulent flows. Before using the LES methodology to compute mixing in realistic oceanic flows, however, a careful assessment of the LES sensitivity with respect to Re needs to be performed first. The main objectives of this study are: (i) to investigate the performance of different LES models at high Re, such as those encountered in oceanic flows; and (ii) to study how mixing varies as a function of Re. To this end, as a benchmark we use the lock-exchange problem, which is described by unambigous and simple initial and boundary conditions. The background potential energy, which accurately quantifies irreversible mixing in an enclosed system, is used as the main criterion in a posteriori testing of LES.This study has two main achievements. The first is that we investigate the accuracy of six combinations of two different classes of LES models, namely eddy-viscosity and approximate deconvolution types, for 3×10³Re3×10⁴, for which DNS data is computed. We find that all LES models almost always provide significantly more accurate results than cases without LES models. Nevertheless, no single LES model that is persistently superior to others over this Re range could be identified. Then, an ensemble of the four best performing LES models is selected in order to estimate mixing taking place in this system at Re=10⁵ and 10⁶, for which DNS is presently not feasible. Thus the second achievement of this study is to quantify mixing taking place in this system over an Re range that changes by three orders of magnitude. We find that the background potential energy increases by about 67% when Re is increased from Re=10³ to Re=10⁶, within the computation period, with the most significant increase taking place from Re=3×10³ to Re=10⁵.     

Potentially mobile pools of phosphorus and silicon in sediment from the Bay of Brest: Interactions and implications for phosphorus dynamics

Competitive interactions between silicate and phosphate at ligand exchange sites in the sediment surface layer may increase the release of phosphorus (P) from the sediment into the water column. In this study, the role of silicon (Si) in the release of P from the sediment surface layer was studied in a marine estuarine environment, the Bay of Brest, with the aid of a sequential sediment fractionation procedure developed for P, and the addition of inorganic or diatom-bound Si to surface sediment samples in vitro. The potentially mobile pools of P in the surface sediment (loosely bound P + Fe/Al-bound-P) amounted to 5.0 μmol g⁻¹ dry sed., 42% of the total extractable and 33% of the total amount of P in the sediment, while the similarly extracted pools of Si were bigger (ca. 20 μmol g⁻¹ dry sed., 50% of the total extractable Si). Additions of inorganic Si increased the concentration of dissolved P in the sediment interstitial water in a bottle experiment, and the addition of both inorganic Si and cultivated diatoms to intact sediment cores increased the outward flux of dissolved P. Model calculations based on the regression equation from the bottle experiment and Si and P water column data showed that the sedimentation of spring diatoms could cause Si pulses to the sediment which would produce a P flux to the water column of ca. 44 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹. Field data from the bay show that in spring, decreases in P and Si and an increase in chl a due to diatom production are often followed by a small separate P peak which may be caused by Si-induced P fluxes from the sediment surface.     

RCP 8.5��A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m²). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution.     

Holocene floristic diversity and richness in northeast Norway revealed by sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) and pollen

We present a Holocene record of floristic diversity and environmental change for the central Varanger Peninsula, Finnmark, based on ancient DNA extracted from the sediments of a small lake (sedaDNA). The record covers the period c. 10 700 to 3300 cal. a BP and is complemented by pollen data. Measures of species richness, sample evenness and beta diversity were calculated based on sedaDNA sampling intervals and 1000‐year time windows. We identified 101 vascular plant and 17 bryophyte taxa, a high proportion (86%) of which are still growing within the region today. The high species richness (>60 taxa) observed in the Early Holocene, including representatives from all important plant functional groups, shows that modern shrub‐tundra communities, and much of their species complement, were in place as early as c. 10 700 cal. a BP. We infer that postglacial colonization of the area occurred prior to the full Holocene, during the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition, Younger Dryas stadial or earlier. Abundant DNA of the extra‐limital aquatic plant Callitriche hermaphroditica suggests it expanded its range northward between c. 10 200 and 9600 cal. a BP, when summers were warmer than present. High values of Pinus DNA occur throughout the record, but we cannot say with certainty if they represent prior local presence; however, pollen influx values >500 grains cm^?2 a^?1 between c. 8000 and 7300 cal. a BP strongly suggest the presence of pine woodland during this period. As the site lies beyond the modern tree limit of pine, it is likely that this expansion also reflects a response to warmer Early Holocene summers.     

GREGOR solar telescope: Design and status

The integration and verification phase of the GREGOR telescope reached an important milestone with the installation of the interim 1 m SolarLite primary mirror. This was the first time that the entire light path had seen sunlight. Since then extensive testing of the telescope and its subsystems has been carried out. The integration and verification phase will culminate with the delivery and installation of the final 1.5 m Zerodur primary mirror in the summer of 2010. Observatory level tests and science verification will commence in the second half of 2010 and in 2011. This phase includes testing of the main optics, adaptive optics, cooling and pointing systems. In addition, assuming the viewpoint of a typical user, various observational modes of the GREGOR Fabry‐Pérot Interferometer (GFPI), the Grating Infrared Spectrograph (GRIS), and high‐speed camera systems will be tested to evaluate if they match the expectations and science requirements. This ensures that GREGOR will provide high‐quality observations with its combination of (multi‐conjugate) adaptive optics and advanced post‐focus instruments. Routine observations are expected for 2012 (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Climate change impacts on international seaports: knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators

Seaports are located in vulnerable areas to climate change impacts: on coasts susceptible to sea-level rise and storms or at mouths of rivers susceptible to flooding. They serve a vital function within the local, regional, and global economy. Their locations in the heart of sensitive estuarine environments make it an imperative to minimize the impacts of natural hazards. Climate impacts, like a projected SLR of .6?m to 2?m and doubling of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes by 2100, will result in more extreme events at many seaports. To assess the current state of knowledge on this issue, we surveyed port authorities from around the world about how administrators felt climate change might impact their operations, what sea-level change would create operational problems, and how they planned to adapt to new environmental conditions. The planned rapid expansion of ports reported by the survey respondents indicates that adaptation measures should be considered as ports construct new infrastructure that may still be in use at the end of the century. Respondents agreed that the ports community needs to address this issue and most felt relatively uninformed about potential climate impacts. Although most ports felt that SLR would not be an issue at their port this century, sea-level rise was nevertheless an issue of great concern. Our results suggest opportunities for the scientific community to engage with port practitioners to prepare proactively for climate change impacts on this sector.