Freeze thaw cycles in Toronto, Canada in a changing climate

Summary Freeze thaw cycles are examined in Toronto Canada. Using data from 1960 to 1989 for three Toronto area weather stations, trends in freeze thaw activity, the relationship to mean monthly temperature and projections of freeze thaw activity are examined. For downtown Toronto the annual frequency of freeze thaw cycles is decreasing significantly, most notably in the shoulder months of October and April. At the Pearson International Airport and the Toronto Island Airport similar annual trends were not found, however there was evidence of decreased freeze thaw activity in April and October. Polynomial curve fitting provided functional relationships between mean monthly temperature and freeze thaw activity. These relationships enabled the assessment of freeze thaw activity under synthetic warming conditions. The results of this analysis show that the warming of the magnitude typically projected for the rest of this century will not likely generate a significant change in the freeze thaw activity although there are indications that the freeze thaw season will contract.     

The concepts and development of a participatory regional integrated assessment tool

This paper provides an overview of the development of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ – a user friendly software tool designed to allow stakeholders to perform integrated assessments of the effects of climate and/or socio-economic change on the important sectors and resources of two contrasting UK regions. This includes the assessment of agriculture, water resources, biodiversity and coastal and river flooding. The tool arose from the need to further develop the methods applied in the earlier RegIS project, which was the first local to regional integrated assessment in the UK. The limitations of RegIS included very long run times, a limited number of simulations, incomplete linkages between models and no allowance for scenario uncertainty. Based upon the stakeholder needs identified within RegIS, a series of guiding principles were developed with Steering Committee stakeholders, which informed the concept of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ including functionality, appearance and complexity. An Integrated Assessment Methodology based upon the Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework facilitated the integration of multiple models, scenarios and datasets within the software interface. The development of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ provides a test-bed for further studies of stakeholder-led, regional, integrated assessment, and provides an opportunity to learn the many lessons in undertaking such studies.     

Radiative Exchange in an Urban Street Canyon

The influence of building geometry on the radiation terms ofthe surface energy balance is a principal reason for surfacetemperature differences between rural and urban areas.Methods exist to calculate the radiation balance in an urban area,but their validity across the range of urban geometries andmaterials has not been carefully considered.Here the exchange of diffuse radiation in an urban street canyon isinvestigated using a method incorporating all reflections of radiation.This exact solution is compared to two commonly used approximationsthat retain either no reflections, or just one reflection of radiation.The area-averaged net radiative flux density from the facets of the canyondecreases in magnitude monotonically as the canyon aspect ratio increases.The two approximate solutions possess unphysical differences from thismonotonic decrease for high canyon aspect ratios or low materialemissivities/high material albedos.The errors of the two approximate solutions are small for near blackbodymaterials and small canyon aspect ratios but can be an order ofmagnitude for intermediate material properties and deep street canyons.Urban street canyon models need to consider at least one reflectionof radiation and multiple reflections are desirable for full applicability.     

Wind-Tunnel Simulation of the Wake of a Large Wind Turbine in a Stable Boundary Layer. Part 1: The Boundary-Layer Simulation

Measurements have been made in both a neutral and a stable boundary layer as part of an investigation of the wakes of wind turbines in an offshore environment, in the EnFlo stratified flow wind tunnel. The working section is long enough for the flow to have become very nearly invariant with streamwise distance. In order to be systematic, the flow profile generators of Irwin-type spires and surface roughness were the same for both neutral and stable conditions. Achieving the required profiles by adjusting the flow generators, even for neutral flow, is a highly iterative art, and the present results indicate that it will be no less iterative for a stable flow (as well as there being more conditions to meet), so this was not attempted in the present investigation. The stable-case flow conformed in most respects to Monin–Obukhov similarity in the surface layer. A linear temperature profile was applied at the working section inlet, resulting in a near-linear profile in the developed flow above the boundary layer and ‘strong’ imposed stability, while the condition at the surface was ‘weak’. Aerodynamic roughness length (mean velocity) was not affected by stability even though the roughness Reynolds number ${<}1$ , while the thermal roughness length was much smaller, as is to be expected. The neutral case was Reynolds-number independent, and by inference, the stable case was also Reynolds-number independent.     

The emergent network structure of the multilateral environmental agreement system

The conventional piecemeal approach to environmental treaty-making has resulted in a ‘maze’ of international agreements. However, little is known empirically about its overall structure and evolutionary dynamics. This study reveals and characterizes the evolving structure of the web of international environmental treaty law. The structure was approximated using 1001 cross-references among 747 multilateral environmental agreements concluded from 1857 to 2012. Known network analysis measures were used to answer the following questions: has a complex system of international environmental treaty law emerged? If so when, and what does it look like? What are its topological properties? To what extent is the institutional complex fragmented? The network analysis suggested that multilateral environmental agreements have self-organized into an interlocking system with a complex network structure. Furthermore, the system has defragmented as it coevolved with the increasing complexity and interconnectivity of global environmental challenges. This study demonstrates the need to approach multilateral environmental agreements in the context of a complex networked system, and recommends against assuming the overall institutional structure is fragmented. Proposals for global environmental governance reform should pay attention to this network's emergent polycentric order and complexity and to the implications of these features for the functioning of the multilateral environmental agreement system.     

The hail sensor intercomparison experiment

Abstract

The results of a calibration and intercomparison of hailpads performed at the Workshop is presented, and recommendations are made on future calibration work and on international cooperation for obtaining comparable measurements of hailfall characteristics.     

Sferics at two stations compared with radar‐observed precipitation

Abstract

The thunderstorms of a June cold‐front passage have been observed by radar, on a constant‐altitude map at 6‐km height as “Larsen areas’ ‘ within which the precipitation intensity level exceeds 30 dBZ, and by two sferics receivers, frequency 100 ± 50 kHz, one at the radar and the other 57 km distant. From the sferics, a distribution of storms with angular extent was obtained. This yielded the distribution with azimuth of the sferics random observational errors: normal with standard deviation 2.1°. Combined with radar‐determined ranges (between 100 and 200 km), it also yielded the distribution with cross‐range linear extent of the sferics sources: log normal with median 9.2 km, standard deviation corresponding to a factor 1.6, for widths 6 to 15 km. No correlation was found between storm width and sferics rate. A power‐law relation has been found between sferics rate and the Larsen area A, sufficiently good that the sferics rate can be predicted within a factor 2 from the Larsen area, but different from that obtained for another day. For both days, the Larsen area A could be replaced by another precipitation parameter, P, in effect a weighted area taking into account the variation within A of the precipitation intensity. This more complex parameter was somewhat better than Aas a predictor of the sferics rate.     

Single-Column Model Intercomparison for a Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The parameterization of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer is a difficult issue, having a significant impact on medium-range weather forecasts and climate integrations. To pursue this further, a moderately stratified Arctic case is simulated by nineteen single-column turbulence schemes. Statistics from a large-eddy simulation intercomparison made for the same case by eleven different models are used as a guiding reference. The single-column parameterizations include research and operational schemes from major forecast and climate research centres. Results from first-order schemes, a large number of turbulence kinetic energy closures, and other models were used. There is a large spread in the results; in general, the operational schemes mix over a deeper layer than the research schemes, and the turbulence kinetic energy and other higher-order closures give results closer to the statistics obtained from the large-eddy simulations. The sensitivities of the schemes to the parameters of their turbulence closures are partially explored.