基于热异常信息与BP神经网络的中强地震预测试验

地震预测是地震科学研究的主要领域之一。震前热异常现象(地表温度异常升高)普遍存在并且与地震三要素有复杂的非线性关系。文中结合神经网络的优点,提出将热异常信息作为地震预测的信息源,通过构建神经网络,进行地震预测的思路,并进行了试验。基于8d合成的1km分辨率的MODIS数据,利用RST算法提取震前热异常信息,在分析震前热异常信息时空变化的基础上,确定出BP神经网络的结构,利用该网络对中国及周边100个5级以上震例,以及70个随机无震样本进行训练和仿真。试验结果表明,通过RST算法提取的震前热异常指数值,用于BP神经网络地震预测是可行的,其预测的试验结果刻画出了地震要素与热异常值间的非线性相关性。未来预测区域范围的选取以及神经网络中隐层神经元的数量将对地震预测效果产生较大的影响。     

2009年7月8-9日泰安市暴雨成因分析

2009年7月8-9日发生在泰安的暴雨天气过程主要是在副高西进北抬、副高边缘西南暖湿气流与高空低槽东移南压相结合的大尺度环流下,由黄河北部的低层中尺度切变线和鲁中地区的小低涡以及低空西南急流共同作用造成的.低空西南急流为大暴雨的产生输送了充足的水汽,低涡加大了辐合上升运动和水汽辐合.850 hPa低空大气散度辐合中心正处于泰安,垂直速度强上升区也在鲁中地区,为暴雨产生提供了足够的动力条件,低层850 hPa假相当位温θse＞75 ℃的高能舌为这次暴雨提供了不稳定能量.     

Feasibility of signal enhancement with multiple grounded‐wire sources for a frequency‐domain electromagnetic survey

Frequency‐domain electromagnetic methods with a grounded‐wire source are powerful tools in geophysical exploration. However, the signal may be too weak to guarantee the quality of survey data in complex electromagnetic environments, especially when the receiver is located in the air for the newly developed grounded‐source airborne frequency‐domain electromagnetic method. In this paper, a signal enhancement method with multiple sources is proposed to solve this problem. To evaluate the signal enhancement effect, we compared the signals generated by a single source and multiple sources with equal electric moment. The signal differences caused by synchronisation error and separation distance between source elements were analysed, and the methods to achieve maximum signal were introduced. Besides, we discussed the interaction between adjacent source elements to ensure the system safety, including the changes in output current and the safe distance between two sources using a dual‐source model. Lastly, a comprehensive field experiment was designed and conducted to test the multiple‐source method. The data processing results are comparable for single and dual sources, and the signal‐to‐noise ratio of dual source is higher in the field test. The subsurface resistivity structure at the test site is consistent with the previous controlled‐source audio‐frequency magnetotellurics method. These results show that signal enhancement with multiple sources is feasible. This study provides guidance to the application of multiple sources in field surveys when the survey environment is complex and rigorous.     

南极格罗夫山陨石岩石学特征Ⅰ:非平衡L3型普通球粒陨石

我国第16次南极科学考察队在格罗夫山区域的蓝冰表面回收到28块陨石,其中有6块属于非平衡型(即3型)普通球粒陨石。它们保存了原始的岩石矿物学特征,包括非常清晰的球粒结构、基质未重结晶和不透明、橄榄石和低钙辉石颗粒具有明显的成分环带和极不均一的化学组成等。Fe-Ni合金含量、含Fe总量和橄榄石成分综合分析表明这6块陨石全部属于低铁群(L)。因为非平衡普通球粒陨石橄榄石成分变化的PMD(Fa)值与岩石类型亚型有良好的相关性,因此,根据橄榄石Fa的PMD标准这6块陨石被划分为如下亚型:GRV 99019为3.6型,GRV99020、GRV 99021和GRV 99026为3.5型,GRV 99001为3.4型,GRV 99022为3.0—3.4型。     

The Solid-liquid Transformation of Low-grade Solid Potash Deposit in Dalangtan Basin and the Simplification of the Liquid Phase System

正We studied the solid-liquid transformation of low-grade solid potash deposit in Dalangtan Basin and simplified the liquid phase system.We did experiments to optimize conditions of the solid-liquid transformation.The Suitable     

OZONE VALLEY OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU*

We analysed the atmospheric total column ozone temporal and spatial distributions,by using the USA Nimbus Satellite TOMS data provided by the Goddard Space Flight Center of NASA,USA.We ploted the monthly mean total column ozone distributions over China by the averaged data from 1979 to 1991,and found that the atmospheric total column ozone contours were parallel to latitudes in winter and spring. However, from June, the lower center of atmospheric column ozone, called "ozone valley",was formed gradually over the Tibetan Plateau, as shown in Fig.     

华东中部洞穴的类型与特征

本文将华东中部地区的洞穴划为五种成因类型,并以典型洞穴为例,阐述了各类型洞穴的基本特征。同时,对本区洞穴的形态特征也作了分析。     

谈调整构造

调整构造是伸展型沉积盆地和造山带中普遍存在的构造,它与走向构造一起,控制了沉积盆地或造山带的基本轮廓与内部结构。调整构造横切走向构造,并与之共同控盆、控岩、控矿,并间隔开两侧不同的构造样式。它以长时期、多阶段活动,具有高渗透性为主要特征,是控制矿带展布与矿床就位的重要构造,也是固定成矿预测区与找矿靶区的重要依据之一,本文以鲁西、中亚及乌拉山-大青山地区、兰坪─思茅盆地区及右江盆地区为例,论述了调整构造的基本特征及控矿作用。     

1991、1998和2016年三个大水年长江中下游夏季降水季节内特征的对比

针对长江中下游三个大水年1991、1998和2016年,利用NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料和CMAP降水资料,对比了夏季降水的季节内特征,分析了引起降水季节内变化的大气环流季节内振荡ISO演变及源地。小波分析表明,三年季节内降水周期差异明显,分别为20～30 d、20～40 d和10～20 d。随之,以东亚季风区季节内振荡指数及热带外Rossby波活动通量,诊断了引起三年季节内活动异常的热带和中纬度ISO变率特点。结果显示影响三年季节内降水的ISO差异较大。1991年受到来自印度洋10～30 d和中纬度高层Rossby波10～30 d的ISO共同影响,造成周期为20～30 d的低频降水;1998年ISO来源路径单一,受中北太平洋30～60 d和10～30 d的ISO西传叠加作用,降水表现为20～40 d的振荡;引起2016年季节内降水异常的ISO源地较多,既有来自印度洋向东北传播30～60 d的ISO,又有来自太平洋向西北传播10～30 d的ISO,还有来自热带外10～30 d的ISO,三者在长江中下游汇合,引起降水10～20 d的振荡。研究结果对认识长江中下游夏季集中降水的形成...     

α径迹的试验研究及其与地震关系的初步探讨

本文在大量试验的基础上对α径迹法在径迹蚀刻、判定、读数方法、误差来源等方面作了讨论,並做了一些相应规定,使α径迹法在地震预报中取得了一定效果。本文还对陇西3.6级地震前α径迹法的观测结果作了讨论。