Possible influence of western North Pacific monsoon on TC activity in mid-latitudes of East Asia

The interannual variation of East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall exhibits considerable differences between early summer [May–June (MJ)] and peak summer [July–August (JA)]. The present study focuses on peak summer. During JA, the mean ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical High (WPSH) divides EASM domain into two sub-domains: the tropical EA (5°N–26.5°N) and subtropical-extratropical EA (26.5°N–50°N). Since the major variability patterns in the two sub-domains and their origins are substantially different, the Part I of this study concentrates on the tropical EA or Southeast Asia (SEA). We apply the predictable mode analysis approach to explore the predictability and prediction of the SEA peak summer rainfall. Four principal modes of interannual rainfall variability during 1979–2013 are identified by EOF analysis: (1) the WPSH-dipole sea surface temperature (SST) feedback mode in the Northern Indo-western Pacific warm pool associated with the decay of eastern Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), (2) the central Pacific-ENSO mode, (3) the Maritime continent SST-Australian High coupled mode, which is sustained by a positive feedback between anomalous Australian high and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over Indian Ocean, and (4) the ENSO developing mode. Based on understanding of the sources of the predictability for each mode, a set of physics-based empirical (P-E) models is established for prediction of the first four leading principal components (PCs). All predictors are selected from either persistent atmospheric lower boundary anomalies from March to June or the tendency from spring to early summer. We show that these four modes can be predicted reasonably well by the P-E models, thus they are identified as the predictable modes. Using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns, we have made a 35-year cross-validated hindcast, setting up a bench mark for dynamic models’ predictions. The P-E hindcast prediction skill represented by domain-averaged temporal correlation coefficient is 0.44, which is twice higher than the skill of the current dynamical hindcast, suggesting that the dynamical models have large rooms to improve. The maximum potential attainable prediction skills for the peak summer SEA rainfall is also estimated and discussed by using the PMA. High predictability regions are found over several climatological rainfall centers like Indo-China peninsula, southern coast of China, southeastern SCS, and Philippine Sea.     

Future changes in summer precipitation in regional climate simulations over the Korean Peninsula forced by multi-RCP scenarios of HadGEM2-AO

In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula (KP) was dynamically downscaled using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) forced by multi- representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios of HadGEM2-AO, and changes in summer precipitation were investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, the RCM reasonably reproduced long-term climatology of summer precipitation over the KP, and captured the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band. In future projections, all RCP experiments using different RCP radiative forcings (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 runs) simulated an increased summer precipitation over the KP. However, there were some differences in changing rates of summer precipitation among the RCP experiments. Future increases in summer precipitation were affected by future changes in moisture convergence and surface evaporation. Changing ranges in moisture convergences among RCP experiments were significantly larger than those in surface evaporation. This indicates that the uncertainty of changes in summer precipitation is related to the projection of the monsoon circulation, which determines the moisture convergence field through horizontal advection. Changes in the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band were inconsistent among RCP experiments. However, all experiments showed that Changma rain-band was enhanced during late June to early July, but it was weakened after mid-July due to the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. These results indicate that precipitation intensity related to Changma rain-band will be increased, but its duration will be reduced in the future.     

A regional climate change simulation over East Asia

In this study, regional climate changes for seventy years (1980–2049) over East Asia and the Korean Peninsula are investigated using the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario via a high-resolution regional climate model, and the impact of global warming on extreme climate events over the study area is investigated. According to future climate predictions for East Asia, the annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.8°C and precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1 (2030–2049). The maximum wind intensity of tropical cyclones increases in the high wind categories, and the intra-seasonal variation of tropical cyclone occurrence changes in the western North Pacific. The predicted increase in surface air temperature results from increased longwave radiations at the surface. The predicted decrease in precipitation is caused primarily by northward shift of the monsoon rain-band due to the intensified subtropical high. In the nested higher-resolution (20 km) simulation over the Korean Peninsula, annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C and annual mean precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1. Future surface air temperature over the Korean Peninsula increases in all seasons due to surface temperature warming, which leads to changes in the length of the four seasons. Future total precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is decreased, but the intensity and occurrence of heavy precipitation events increases. The regional climate changes information from this study can be used as a fruitful reference in climate change studies over East Asia and the Korean peninsula.     

海南岛西部山区人工催化暖底积云随机化效果检验

2015—2016年在海南省昌江县霸王岭开展地面暖云烟炉随机化人工催化效果检验,共取得催化和未催化试验样本34个。利用TITAN风暴追踪系统结合自动雨量资料进行统计和物理效果分析。结果表明:催化样本影响区平均增雨量为3.36mm/2h,未催化样本平均增雨量为2.97mm/2h,催化比未催化样本平均增加雨量0.39mm,相对增加11.4%,显著性分析差异显著;对于增长阶段的积雨云,催化样本反射率增强、含水量增大、回波顶高升高;处于减弱阶段的积云,多数催化样本回波减弱趋势趋缓。     

太湖流域水库型水源地硅藻水华发生特征及对策分析

基于溧阳市天目湖沙河水库2009—2014年的硅藻群落结构及水质调查,以及宜兴横山水库等硅藻水华期藻类和水质调查数据,分析了太湖流域水库中硅藻水华群落结构特征及受气温、水位、营养盐等环境条件的影响.结果表明,太湖流域硅藻水华的主要发生期为5—7月,快速生长期发生在气温为16~26℃期间,当气温超过26℃时,硅藻的生物量开始下降.硅藻的优势属包括针杆藻、曲壳藻、小环藻和颗粒直链藻.其中沙河水库和横山水库中针杆藻是主要危害,其生物量主导了硅藻总生物量.大溪水库有时以针杆藻为主,有时以颗粒直链藻为主.当总氮浓度低于1.0 mg/L的Ⅲ类水上限时,水体氮浓度能大大限制硅藻生物量,当总磷浓度低于0.025 mg/L的Ⅱ类水上限时,也可能对硅藻生物量产生限制.高于此营养水平,硅藻水华的严重程度主要受气温、降雨等因素影响.研究表明,对于处于中营养水平的太湖流域水库而言,硅藻生物量既受气温、降雨、水位等气象水文条件的控制,又受氮、磷、硅等营养盐供给的影响.硅藻水华的防控既要关注气候和气象条件,也要尽量削减氮、磷营养盐入湖通量,维持较低营养盐水平是确保硅藻水华不形成危害的关键.     

太湖富营养化现状及原因分析

根据2005-2006年太湖湖泊生态系统研究站的监测结果,结合历史监测记录,评价了近5年来太湖富营养化的趋势.结果显示,从2000年以来,太湖的富营养化状况有加重趋势.主要表现在:1)与历史监测资料对比,近5年来无论梅梁湾还是湖心区,夏季水体TN、TP含量均呈增高趋势,如1992-2001年,太湖湖心区夏季(6-8月份)水体TN的平均值为1.706 mg/L (范围1.238-2.266mg/L),而2002-2006这5年间该平均值为2.344mg/L(范围1.924-2.717mg/L),明显高于前10年(p=0.005),另外,同期湖心区夏季的水体透明度则明显下降(1992—2001年夏季平均值为0.63 m,而2002-2006年则为0.34 m,p=0.003); 2)从野外调查看,太湖夏季水华暴发的范围越来越大,从2000年以前的梅梁湾、竺山湾及部分湖西区为主,发展到2006年的整个西太湖,夏季暴发水华的面积占太湖总面积的一半以上,且一年中出现水华的时间越来越长,水华出现的频率越来越高,微囊藻水华为特征的藻型生态系统在大太湖似乎越来越稳定;3)近年来太湖沉水植物分布区的面积有所下降.研究表明,太湖近年来富营养化的现状不容乐观,原因可能与近几年异常的气候和水文条件有关,也可能与水草区的不断破坏而减弱了微囊藻水华的生态竞争有关,应引起有关部门重视.     

太湖草/藻型湖区沉积物-水界面环境特征差异

在太湖草、藻型湖区进行冬、夏两季多点采样,分别对采样点的水环境特征、泥面以上5 cm上覆水中营养盐以及沉积物的含水量、中值粒径、有机碳、氮、磷、金属元素和溶解氧进行测定.结果表明:夏季藻型湖区表层水体pH高于中、底层,冬季草型湖区各层水体pH高于藻型;草型湖区水体浊度夏季低于藻型,冬季反之;藻型湖区上覆水中的硝态氮和磷酸根浓度显著高于草型;草型湖区沉积物中含水量冬季显著高于夏季;草型湖区沉积物中总有机碳显著高于藻型;Fe、Zn、Ca、Pb、Na和K等元素在草、藻型湖区间差异显著;沉积物中溶解氧表现为冬季深于夏季,藻型深于草型的规律.     

色球活动双星HR1099Hα发射线的高分辨率分光观测和分析

本文给出ＨＲ１０９９（Ｖ７１１Ｔａｕ）的高色散、高分辨率的分光观测结果。从观测结果分析，该双星系统的两子星均有剧烈的色球活动，强的Ｈα发射主峰主要来自活动性强的冷子星，谱线轮廓形状的大幅度变化取决于色球发射物质的运动和恒星内部的物理变化。     

Assessment of Global Seismic Loss Based on Macroeconomic Indicators

Most earthquake loss studies use a probabilistic approach in which predicted damages in various categories of structure and facilities in the region in concern are estimated and added together to obtain a total loss for particular intensity ranges. Such an approach requires a detailed inventory database of the structures and facilities in the region, which is not always readily available in many regions of the world. We have used an alternative means of estimating earthquake losses based on several macroeconomic indices such as the gross domestic product and population. Using published earthquake loss data for 1980–1995, the relations between GDP and earthquake loss have been formulated empirically for several intensity ranges. The world's land surface was divided into unit cells 0.5° lat. × 0.5° long. in size. The GDP of each cell was apportioned based on its population and GDP, and the population of the region to which it belongs. The predicted seismic loss of the cell was then estimated from the seismic hazard probability function, its GDP, and the empirical relation between GDP and seismic loss. A global seismic loss map is then compiled both for the intensity at 10% probability of exceedance and the probable maximum intensity. Employing readily available socioeconomic data as the basis for the vulnerability analysis, the method enables us to obtain seismic loss estimates for regions without the need for a detailed inventory of exposed structures or collateral geological information. Since such statistics are frequently compiled by the world's leading political and financial institutions, the seismic loss estimates can also be upgraded easily for the fast developing areas of the world.     

哈雷彗星的彗发光谱

用云南天文台一米望远镜卡焦摄谱仪(f=175mm相机),在哈雷彗星的日心距分别为1.11AU和0.83AU时,作了两次彗发光谱观测,得到了典型的彗发光谱。本文绘出了各带系清晰的分子发射光谱图及认证结果。此外,本文还给出了彗发CN的(0—1)带(λ4216)和C_3的蓝紫发射(λ4052)及C_2的(2—0)带(λ4365)的强度比CN/C_3和CN/C_2,其值分别为CN/C_3=1.03,CN/C_2=1.00。最后,我们还将结果与其他作者在这次回归中所得到的结果进行了比较。