Evaluating sampling efficiency when estimating sediment source contributions to suspended sediment in rivers by fingerprinting

A general method is proposed which measures the increase in uncertainty when sampling effort is reduced in sediment fingerprinting. The method gives quantitative measures of how reduced sampling of material in one of the source areas, and/or of suspended sediment in streams, increases the uncertainties in the proportions of sediment contributed from the sources. Because the proportions of sediment contributed by the source areas must add to one, standard errors of the estimated proportions cannot be used as the usual measures of uncertainty: the paper uses instead the volume of the joint 95% confidence region for the estimated proportions. The paper shows how the uncertainty in this volume changes as numbers of suspended sediment samples, and the numbers of samples collected from cropped fields, are reduced by successive steps from 24 (20, in the case of cropped fields) to 16, 12, 8, 4 and 2 samples. As expected, uncertainty increases rapidly as the number of samples – whether of suspended sediment or from cropped fields – is reduced drastically. The pattern of increasing uncertainty is similar both for reductions in suspended sediment sampling, and for reduced sampling from cropped areas. When the number of suspended sediment samples, and the number of samples from cropped fields, are reduced to the same values, the increase in uncertainty from fewer suspended sediment samples was always slightly greater than the increased uncertainty from the reduced sampling of cropped areas, although this finding took no account of differences in the costs of field sampling and laboratory analysis. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5?W?m^?2 in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, including shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5?W?m^?2, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.     

Defining ecological and chemical reference conditions and restoration targets for nine European lakes

This paper aims to determine the ecological and chemical reference conditions (~1800?C1850 AD) and degree of floristic change at nine enriched lakes, covering a range of types across Europe, using fossil diatom assemblages in dated sediment cores and application of total phosphorus (TP) transfer functions. Additionally the study assesses the potential of analogue matching as a technique for identifying reference sites and for estimating reference TP concentrations for the study lakes using a training set of 347 European lakes and 719 diatom taxa. Oligotrophic, acidophilous to circumneutral taxa were predominant in the reference samples of several of the deep lakes, and benthic Fragilaria spp. dominated the reference samples of two high alkalinity shallow lakes. The degree of floristic change from the reference sample, assessed using the squared chord distance (SCD) dissimilarity coefficient, revealed that two sites had experienced slight change (Lago Maggiore, Felbrigg Lake), five experienced moderate change (Mjoesa, Loch Davan, Loch Leven, White Lough, Esthwaite Water), and two showed evidence of major change (Groby Pool, Piburger See). For three lakes, there were no analogues in the diatom dataset owing to the uniqueness and diversity of the diatom reference assemblages. For the remaining six sites the number of analogues ranged from 2 to 44. For two deep lakes most of the analogues seemed appropriate as they were of the same type and had low TP concentrations. However, for two other deep lakes and two shallow lakes some of the analogues differed markedly in their depth and alkalinity from the lake in question or had TP concentrations seemingly too high to represent reference conditions suggesting that the analogues may not be suitable as reference sites. For the deep lakes, similar reference TP values were calculated using the EDDI Combined TP transfer function and the analogue matching technique with concentrations typically <20 ??g L^?1. However, for the shallow lakes, the analogue matching method produced inferred values considerably higher than those of the transfer function. The wide ecological tolerances of many of the diatom taxa found in the reference samples most likely explain the selection of inappropriate analogue sites. In summary, the study demonstrates that palaeoecological techniques can play a valuable role in determining reference conditions and indicates that the analogue matching technique has the potential to be a useful tool for identifying appropriate reference sites for lakes impacted by eutrophication.     

On the (mis)use of statistical methods in hydro-climatological research

Abstract

This paper discusses four areas where, in the author's view, statistical methods are misused in reporting results of hydro-climatological research. They are: (i) the use of the same data set both to suggest a hypothesis (commonly of trend over time) and to test it; (ii) failure to use an appropriate significance level for tests in which a number of hypotheses are tested, even when the data sets used are mutually uncorrelated; (iii) failure to account for spatial correlations between variables, whether these are explanatory or response variables; and (iv) exaggerated importance given to statistical tests of significance, in particular to the 5% and 1% significance levels.

Citation Clarke, R. T. (2010) On the (mis)use of statistical methods in hydro-climatological research. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 139–144.     

Multi‐criteria evaluation and least‐cost path analysis for optimal haulage routing of dump trucks in large scale open‐pit mines

A new raster‐based GIS model that combines multi‐criteria evaluation and least‐cost path analysis was developed to determine the optimal haulage routes of dump trucks in large scale open‐pit mines. The model logic can consider multiple criteria simultaneously (i.e. speed, water body, ore body, curve, visibility, haul road maintenance) and can rate the adverse factor scores of truck movement using fuzzy membership functions. After establishing the weights of five factors by pairwise comparisons, the average adverse score grid can be generated by the weighted linear combination of factor and constraint scores. New software, called Dump Traveler, was implemented to improve the availability of the developed model. An application to the Roto South pit in the Pasir open‐pit coal mine, Indonesia, showed that the software can provide rational solutions to determine the optimal routes on truck haulage operations. Moreover, the layout of available haul roads can be evaluated to consider the trade‐off between road maintenance costs and the potential for traffic jams. Variations of weights for factors were found to be sensitive to the optimal haulage routes determined by least‐cost path analysis. The software provides both optimal routes on truck haulage operations and approximately estimated travel times along the routes, therefore it can support other truck dispatching software that mainly considers scheduling problems.     

Accretion in stellar clusters and the initial mass function

We present a simple physical mechanism that can account for the observed stellar mass spectrum for masses M ∗≳0.5 M_⊙ . The model depends solely on the competitive accretion that occurs in stellar clusters where each star's accretion rate depends on the local gas density and the square of the accretion radius. In a stellar cluster, there are two different regimes depending on whether the gas or the stars dominate the gravitational potential. When the cluster is dominated by cold gas, the accretion radius is given by a tidal-lobe radius. This occurs as the cluster collapses towards a ρ  ∝  R ⁻² distribution. Accretion in this regime results in a mass spectrum with an asymptotic limit of γ =−3/2 (where Salpeter is γ =−2.35) . Once the stars dominate the potential and are virialized, which occurs first in the cluster core, the accretion radius is the Bondi–Hoyle radius. The resultant mass spectrum has an asymptotic limit of γ =−2 with slightly steeper slopes ( γ ≈−2.5) if the stars are already mass-segregated. Simulations of accretion on to clusters containing 1000 stars show that, as expected, the low-mass stars accumulate the majority of their masses during the gas-dominated phase whereas the high-mass stars accumulate the majority of their masses during the stellar-dominated phase. This results in a mass spectrum with a relatively shallow γ ≈3/2 power law for low-mass stars and a steeper power law for high-mass stars −2.5≲ γ ≤−2 . This competitive accretion model also results in a mass-segregated cluster.