Computing derivative information of sequentially coupled subsurface models

A generic framework for the computation of derivative information required for gradient-based optimization using sequentially coupled subsurface simulation models is presented. The proposed approach allows for the computation of any derivative information with no modification of the mathematical framework. It only requires the forward model Jacobians and the objective function to be appropriately defined. The flexibility of the framework is demonstrated by its application in different reservoir management studies. The performance of the gradient computation strategy is demonstrated in a synthetic water-flooding model, where the forward model is constructed based on a sequentially coupled flow-transport system. The methodology is illustrated for a synthetic model, with different types of applications of data assimilation and life-cycle optimization. Results are compared with the classical fully coupled (FIM) forward simulation. Based on the presented numerical examples, it is demonstrated how, without any modifications of the basic framework, the solution of gradient-based optimization models can be obtained for any given set of coupled equations. The sequential derivative computation methods deliver similar results compared to FIM methods, while being computationally more efficient.     

Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

Ecotoxicological evaluation of dredged sediments from Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon (Rio de Janeiro State,Brazil) using bioassays with earthworms and collembolans

The toxicity and metal bioavailability were studied in dredged sediments from Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon (Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil) using acute and avoidance tests with Eisenia andrei, and reproduction tests with Folsomia candida. The sediment was mixed with an artificial soil, and two natural soils (ferralsol and chernosol—representative Brazilian tropical soils) to obtain the following doses: 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 and 30%. Total metal concentrations were determined in the sediment to support the interpretation of ecotoxicological data. Metal concentrations in the mixtures were in agreement with the threshold limits established by Brazilian law. However, significant avoidance responses were found on doses ≥?3% and were the most sensitive endpoint. Earthworm mortality found in artificial soil mixtures (LC50?=?3.9) suggests higher toxicity levels than those obtained in ferralsol (LC50?=?7.6%) and chernosol (11.0%) treatments. Earthworm mortality, avoidance responses and collembolan reproduction levels found in ferralsol mixtures (LC50?=?9.2; avoidance EC50?=?2.3%; reproduction EC50?=?2.8%) were higher compared to chernosol treatments (LC50?=?11.0%; avoidance EC50?=?4.3%; reproduction EC50?=?4.9%). The reduction of toxicity levels in chernosol mixtures is probably due to the abundance of expansive clay minerals in chernosols with capacity of adsorbing metals and other xenobiotic substances from soil pore water, decreasing metal bioavailability. Finally, threshold limits defined by Brazilian legislation for soil quality and land disposal of dredged sediments are not sufficient to prevent noxious effects on soil fauna and should be complemented with a preliminary ecotoxicological evaluation.     

Zoning and exsolution in alkali feldspars from Laacher See volcano (Western Germany): constraints on temperature history prior to eruption

Compositional zoning and exsolution patterns of alkali feldspars in carbonatite-bearing cognate syenites from the 6.3 km³ (D.R.E) phonolitic Laacher See Tephra (LST) deposit in western Germany (12.9 ka) are reported. These rocks represent the cooler outer portion and crystal-rich products of a cooling magma reservoir at upper crustal levels. Major and trace-element difference between cores and rims in sanidine crystals represent two generations of crystal growth separated by unmixing of a carbonate melt. Trace-element differences measured by LA–ICP–MS are in accordance with silicate–carbonate unmixing. Across the core–rim boundary, we extracted gray-scale profiles from multiple accumulations of back-scattered electron images. Gray scales directly represent K/Na ratios owing to low concentrations of Ba and Sr (<?30 ppm). Diffusion gradients are modeled to solve for temperature using known pre-eruptive U–Th zircon ages (0–20 ky) of each sample (Schmitt et al., J Petrol 51:1053–1085, 2010). Estimated temperatures range from 630 °C to 670 °C. For the exsolution boundaries, a diffusive homogenization model is constrained by the solvus temperature of ~ 712^_725 °C and gives short time scales of only 15–50 days. Based on our results, we present a model for the temperature–time history of these rocks. The model also constrains the thermal variation across the cooling crystal-rich carapace of the magma reservoir over 20 ka and suggests a thermal reactivation of cumulates, the cooling carapace, and probably the entire system only a few years prior to the explosive eruption of the remaining molten core of the phonolitic magma reservoir.     

Post-eruptive lahars at Kali Putih following the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano,Indonesia: occurrences and impacts

Following the 2010 VEI 4 eruption of Merapi volcano, more than 250 lahars were triggered during two rainy seasons from October 2010 to March 2012. This high number of post-eruption lahars mainly occurred in the Kali (valley) Putih watershed and was mostly associated with high-magnitude rainstorms. A lahar occurring on January 8, 2011, caused significant damage to homes in several communities, bridges, sabo dams, and agricultural crops. The aims of this contribution are to document the impacts of lahars on the Kali Putih watershed and specifically (1) to analyze the lahar frequency during the period of 1969–2012 on an inter-annual and intra-annual basis and to determine the link between the volume of tephra and the frequency of lahars; (2) to detail the lahar trajectory and channel evolution following the January 8th lahar; (3) to map the spatial distribution of the thickness and geomorphic effects of the lahar deposit; and (4) to determine the impacts of the lahar on the infrastructure (sabo dams and roads) and settlements in the distal area of the volcano. The Kali Putih watershed has experienced 62 lahars, which represent 22% of all lahars triggered on 17 rivers at Merapi between 2010 and 2012. The main geomorphic impacts are: (1) excessive sedimentation in valleys, settlements and agricultural areas; (2) undercutting of the river banks by as much as 50 m, accompanied by channel widening; and (3) abrupt changes in the river channel direction in the distal area (15–20 km downstream of the volcano). About 19 sabo dams were damaged, and 3 were totally destroyed. Over 307 houses were damaged, and the National Road Yogyakarta–Semarang was regularly cut (18 times during approximately 25 days). Although the sabo dams on Kali Putih were originally constructed to protect distal areas from lahar damage, they had little effect on the 2010–2012 rain-triggered lahars. The underlying design of those dams along this river is one of the main reasons for the major destruction in this sector of the volcano’s lower slope. The catch basin capacity of the sabo dam was only 1.75?×?10⁶ m³, whereas the total volume of the 2010–2011 lahars exceeded 5?×?10⁶ m³. In order to prepare for future lahars, the government has invested in significant mitigation measures, ranging from structural approaches (e.g., building new sabo dams and developing an early warning system) to non-structural approaches (e.g., contingency and preparedness planning and hazard education).

     

Hydrologic models coupled with 2D hydrodynamic model for high-resolution urban flood simulation

Natural Hazards - Floods are the most frequent natural disaster and pose a very challenging threat to many cities worldwide. Understanding the flood dynamic is essential for developing strategies...