The Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Policymaking: Lessons from Northeast Brazil

This article examines the use of seasonal climate forecasting in public and private efforts to mitigate the impacts of drought in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Here, forecasts have been directed towards small scale, rainfed agriculturalists as well as state and local level policymakers in the areas of agriculture, water management, and emergency drought relief. In assessing possibilities and constraints of forecast application in Ceará, the present analysis takes into account three types of variables: (a)characteristics of the forecasts; (b) policymaking systems; and (c)institutional environments. We conclude that, on the one hand, several factors in the Ceará case have limited the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecast use. First, the current level of skill of the forecasts is inadequate for the needs of policy development and farmer decisionmaking. Second, forecast information application has been subject to distortion, misinterpretation and political manipulation. Third, focus on the forecast as a product until recently neglected to take into account end users' needs and decisionmaking behavior. On the other hand, climate forecasting has the potential to offer a dramatic opportunity for state and local level bureaucracies to embark on a path of proactive drought planning.     

Study of Coherent Structures and Estimation of the Pressure Transport Terms for the Nocturnal Stable Boundary Layer

During the CASES-99 field experiment, three quartz-based microbarographs were installed on the 58-m main tower at the Central Site. These devices measuredabsolute pressure with temperature compensated output at a resolution better than 0.2 Pa and a sampling frequency of 2 s^-1 during the whole campaign. This sampling rate is not adequate to compute turbulent pressure fluxes with the classic averaging method, but the wavelet transform allows flux estimations at a wide range of scales. The resolution of the devices is suitable to study pressure perturbations such as internal gravity waves. The night period of the Intensive Operational Period number 6 (IOP6), where wave-like structures were present, is chosen to illustrate the method. A complete wavelet analysis of pressure recordsand data from sonic anemometers located at the same heights in the tower is performed. Wavelet methods make it possible to identify the relevant scales in the flowand to study the vertical structure of pressure perturbations, including coherent structures and small-scale motions.A study of a simplified turbulence kinetic energy budget equation is made and the contribution of the pressure terms is discussed.     

Paleomagnetic and paleoclimatic investigation at Laguna Melincue (Pampean Plains,Argentina): preliminary results

Laguna Melincué is a shallow lake located in Santa Fe Province, Argentina (33°41′27.8″S, 61°31′36.5″W). The catchment area is around 1495 km² and it is located in the Pampean Plains. It was reduced to 678 km² by the construction of the San Urbano channel in 1941 and reconditioned in 1977, which was built to avoid floods. The floods are related to some El Niño episodes, with high precipitation events. The lake has been previously studied from different approaches, mainly to understand hydrological and climatic variations, but more multidisciplinary studies are needed to understand its complex hydrological situation. Here we present the first paleomagnetic and rock magnetic studies made on a short sediment core collected from the lake in order to contribute to identifying paleoclimatic proxies and to present the first paleomagnetic results for the site. Rock magnetic analyses suggest that the well-preserved magnetic mineralogy is dominated by pseudo single-domain (titano)magnetite and/or maghemite. The results also indicate that a stable characteristic remanent magnetisation can be isolated and thus the directions of the geomagnetic field may be obtained, providing evidence for the use of this lake for paleomagnetic and paleoenvironmental studies. Changes in magnetic grain size and concentration of magnetic minerals suggest environmental variations and changes in the lake level, which are consistent with historical reports. The paleomagnetic results agree well with Cals3k.3 model for inclination and declination of the geomagnetic field except for the dry period probably due to the fact that the core was extracted near the shore.     

The ARIEL Instrument Control Unit design

In this paper we present the electromagnetic modeling and beam pattern measurements of a 16-elements ultra wideband sparse random test array for the low frequency instrument of the Square Kilometer Array telescope. We discuss the importance of a small array test platform for the development of technologies and techniques towards the final telescope, highlighting the most relevant aspects of its design. We also describe the electromagnetic simulations and modeling work as well as the embedded-element and array pattern measurements using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle system. The latter are helpful both for the validation of the models and the design as well as for the future instrumental calibration of the telescope thanks to the stable, accurate and strong radio frequency signal transmitted by the UAV. At this stage of the design, these measurements have shown a general agreement between experimental results and numerical data and have revealed the localized effect of un-calibrated cable lengths in the inner side-lobes of the array pattern.     

Morphological Variation of the Sea Silverside Odontesthes regia in Regions with Dissimilar Upwelling Intensity along the Humboldt Current System

Ocean Science Journal - We evaluated the influence of areas with dissimilar upwelling intensity along the Humboldt Current System on the morphological variation of the economically important sea...     

Optimum selection of design parameters for transportation of offshore structures

A probabilistic framework is presented to select the design significant wave height and design transverse rotation for typical barges used in the Gulf of Mexico for marine transportation of structural elements and/or systems. The selection of design transverse rotation is based on optimization procedure that trade-off between the performance of the barge subjected to a meteorological-oceanographic (metocean) hazard along the route and losses by structural damage. For this purpose probabilistic models to estimate the metocean hazard for marine transportation are shown. Afterwards, the design rotation is linked to the design of significant wave height and to the return period associated with such wave conditions. The formulation is applied to an offshore transportation route in the Gulf of Mexico.     

Cold seep communities in the deep eastern Mediterranean Sea: composition, symbiosis and spatial distribution on mud volcanoes

Two mud volcano fields were explored during the French–Dutch MEDINAUT cruise (1998) with the submersible NAUTILE, one south of Crete along the Mediteranean Ridge at about 2000 m depth (Olimpi mud field) and the other south of Turkey between 1700 and 2000 m depth (Anaximander mud field) where high methane concentrations were measured. Chemosynthetic communities were observed and sampled on six mud volcanoes and along a fault scarp. The communities were dominated by bivalves of particularly small size, belonging to families commonly found at seeps (Mytilidae, Vesicomyidae, Thyasiridae) and to Lucinidae mostly encountered in littoral sulfide-rich sediments and at the shallowest seeps. Siboglinid polychaetes including a large vestimentiferan Lamellibrachia sp. were also associated. At least four bivalve species and one siboglinid are associated with symbiotic chemoautotrophic bacteria, as evidenced by Transmission Electronic Microscopy and isotopic ratio measurements. Among the bivalves, a mytilid harbors both methanotrophic and sulfide-oxidizing bacteria. Video spatial analysis of the community distribution on three volcanoes shows that dense bivalve shell accumulations (mainly lucinids) spread over large areas, from 10% to 38% of the explored areas (2500–15000 m²) on the different volcanoes. Lamellibrachia sp. had different spatial distribution and variable density in the two mud volcano fields, apparently related with higher methane fluxes in the Anaximander volcanoes and maybe with the instability due to brines in the Olimpi area. The abundance and richness of the observed chemosynthetic fauna and the size of some of the species contrast with the poverty of the deep eastern Mediterranean. The presence of a specialized fauna, with some mollusk genera and species shared with other reduced environments of the Mediterranean, but not dominated by the large bivalves usually found at seeps, is discussed.     

Geological risk assessment of the area surrounding Altamira Cave: A proposed Natural Risk Index and Safety Factor for protection of prehistoric caves

Altamira Cave occurs in a carbonate sequence-dated as middle to upper Cenomanian, being characterized by tabular bedding. This sequence has been studied in detail and mapped in an attempt to delimit the beds in which the cave was formed. The cave forms part of a karstic complex developed in the Altamira Formation, which consists of eight stratigraphic units characterized by karstic forms and landslides as the main geomorphologic elements. The strong relationship between sinkholes and faults within the area was also revealed, with sinkholes of oval morphology aligned along the faults. Inside the cave, the subhorizontal bedding is intersected by subvertical joints, generating geometrical blocks prone to falling down. This is the main process of the present evolution of the cave in addition to the dissolution and precipitation of carbonates in local zones. We used this geological characterization as the basis for the definition of protection areas around prehistoric caves, applied in this article to the Altamira Cave. Landslides, water flow towards the cave, rock falls within cave and karstic features are the main geological risks affecting the karstic complex. Two semi-quantitative indexes were proposed, the Natural Risk Index (NRI) and Safety Factor (SF), with the main aim of determining the risk level in different zones of the study area. The information provided by geological studies as well as the results obtained using the proposed indexes allowed definition suitable protection areas around the cave.     

Evaluation of Peak Current Polarity Retrieved by the ZEUS Long-Range Lightning Monitoring System

This letter presents the first assessment of a newly developed polarity retrieval scheme augmenting a very low frequency (VLF) long-range lightning detection network (named ZEUS). The polarity scheme uses extremely low frequency (ELF) in conjunction with the VLF waveform. The measured ELF signal is compared with the simulated ELF signal to extract the polarity sign. This comparison also produces correlation coefficients that are used to assign four confidence index categories on the polarity sign. This letter presents polarity results for a period of ZEUS network operation from November 26 to December 15, 2004. Assessment of the polarity measurements is conducted through comparisons against the Brazilian lightning network Rede Integrada Nacional de Detecccedilatildeo de Descargas Atmosfeacutericas (RINDAT) that uses a well-established lightning location technology. Contingency test analysis shows that algorithm performance is consistent with the assigned confidence level, e.g., at medium confidence level, the algorithm has a 5% bias, whereas at high level, perfect agreement is shown with RINDAT. Peak current strength was found not to influence the accuracy of the polarity retrieval