Land use and climate change on the Yamal Peninsula of north-west Siberia: some ecological and socio-economic implications

Compared to climate, land use change is expected to comprise a more important component of global change in the coming decades. However, climate is anticipated to supass land use as a factor later in the next century, particularly in the Arctic. Discussed here are the implications of land use and climate change on the Yamal peninsula of north-west Siberia, homeland of the Yamal Nenets. Since the discovery of super-giant natural gas fields in the 1960s, extensive exploration has resulted in direct withdrawal of large areas for infrastructure development and associated disturbance regimes have led to cumulative impacts on thousands of additional hectares of land. The land withdrawals have pushed a relatively consistent or increasing number of reindeer onto progressively smaller parcels of pasture. This has led to excessive grazing and trampling of lichens, bryophytes and shrubs and, in many areas, erosion of sandy soils via deflation. The low Arctic tundra lies entirely within the continuous permafrost zone and ice-rich substrates are widespread. One implication of this is that both anthropogenic and zoogenic distubance regimes may easily initiate thermokarst and aeolian rosion, leading to significant further losses of pastures. Even without industrial distubance, a slight change of the climate would result in massive thermokarst erosion. This would have negative consequences equal to or greater than the mechanical distubances described above. The synergistic effects of land use coupled with climate, change therefore have profound implication for the ecosystems of Yamal, as well as the future of the Nenets culture, society and economy.     

Validation of an annual cycle simulation with a T42-L20 GCM

An annual cycle of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is presented. The winter and summer zonal averages of the atmospheric fields are compared with an observed climatology. The main features of the observed seasonal means are well reproduced by the model. One of the main discrepancies is that the simulated atmosphere is too cold, particularly in its upper part. Some other discrepancies might be explained by the interannual variability. The AGCM surface fluxes are directly compared to climatological estimates. On the other hand, the calculation of meridional heat transport by the ocean, inferred from the simulated energy budget, can be compared to transport induced from climatologies. The main result of this double comparison is that AGCM fluxes generally are within the range of climatological estimates. The main deficiency of the model is poor partitioning between solar and non-solar heat fluxes in the tropical belt. The meridional heat transport also reveals a significant energy-loss by the Northern Hemisphere ocean north of 45° N. The possible implications of model surface flux deficiencies on coupling with an oceanic model are discussed.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Invariant manifolds, phase correlations of chaotic orbits and the spiral structure of galaxies

In the presence of a strong   m = 2  component in a rotating galaxy, the phase-space structure near corotation is shaped to a large extent by the invariant manifolds of the short-period family of unstable periodic orbits terminating at L ₁ or L ₂. The main effect of these manifolds is to create robust phase correlations among a number of chaotic orbits large enough to support a spiral density wave outside corotation. The phenomenon is described theoretically by soliton-like solutions of a Sine–Gordon equation. Numerical examples are given in an N -body simulation of a barred spiral galaxy. In these examples, we demonstrate how the projection of unstable manifolds in configuration space reproduces essentially the entire observed bar–spiral pattern.     

Diurnal atmospheric forcing and temporal variations of the nutation amplitudes

A 29-year time-series of four-times-daily atmospheric effective angular momentum (EAM) estimates is used to study the atmospheric influence on nutation. The most important atmospheric contributions are found for the prograde annual (77 μas), retrograde annual (53 as), prograde semiannual (45 as), and for the constant offset of the pole (δψsinɛ₀=−86 as, δɛ=77 as). Among them only the prograde semiannual component is driven mostly by the wind term of the EAM function, while in all other cases the pressure term is dominant. These are nonnegligible quantities which should be taken into account in the new theory of nutation. Comparison with the VLBI corrections to the IAU 1980 nutation model taking into account the ocean tide contribution yields good agreement for the prograde annual and semiannual nutations. We also investigated time variability of the atmospheric contribution to the nutation amplitudes by performing the sliding-window least-squares analysis of both the atmospheric excitation and VLBI nutation data. Almost all detected variations of atmospheric origin can be attributed to the pressure term, the biggest being the in-phase annual prograde component (about 30 as) and the retrograde one (as much as 100200 as). These variations, if physical, limit the precision of classical modeling of nutation to the level of 0.1 mas. Comparison with the VLBI data shows significant correlation for the retrograde annual nutation after 1989, while for the prograde annual term there is a high correlation in shape but the size of the atmospherically driven variations is about three times less than deduced from the VLBI data. This discrepancy in size can be attributed either to inaccuracy of the theoretical transfer function or the frequency-dependent ocean response to the pressure variations. Our comparison also yields a considerably better agreement with the VLBI nutation data when using the EAM function without the IB correction for ocean response, which indicates that this correction is not adequate for nearly diurnal variations. Received: 10 September 1997 / Accepted: 5 March 1998     

Fast integration of low orbiter's trajectory perturbed by the earth's non-sphericity

A fast algorithm is proposed to integrate the trajectory of a low obiter perturbed by the earth's non-sphericity. The algorithm uses a separation degree to define the low-degree and the high-degree acceleration components, the former computed rigorously, and the latter interpolated from gridded accelerations. An FFT method is used to grid the accelerations. An optimal grid type for the algorithm depends on the trajectory's permissible error, speed, and memory capacity. Using the non-spherical accelerations computed from EGM96 to harmonic degree 360, orbit integrations were performed for a low orbiter at an altitude of 170 km. For a separation degree of 50, the new algorithm, together with the predict-pseudo correct method, speeds up the integration by 145 times compared to the conventional algorithm while keeping the errors in position and velocity below 10⁻⁴ m and 10⁻⁷ m/s for a 3-day arc. Received: 28 July 1997 / Accepted: 1 April 1998     

Reference frame stability and nonlinear distortion in minimum-constrained network adjustment

The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the minimum constraints (MCs) on the reference frame parameters in a free-net solution. The non-estimable part of these parameters (which is not reduced by the available data) is analysed in terms of its stability under a numerical perturbation of the constrained datum functionals. In practice, such a perturbation can be ascribed either to hidden errors in the known coordinates/velocities that participate in the MCs or to a simple change of their a priori values due to a datum switch on a different fiducial dataset. In addition, a perturbation of this type may cause a nonlinear variation to the estimable part of the reference frame parameters, since it theoretically affects the adjusted observations that are implied by the network’s nonlinear observational model. The aforementioned effects have an impact on the quality of a terrestrial reference frame (TRF) that is established via a minimum-constrained adjustment, and our study shows that they are both controlled through a characteristic matrix which is inherently linked to the MC system (the so-called TRF stability matrix). The structure of this matrix depends on the network’s spatial configuration and the ‘geometry’ of the datum constraints, while its main role is the filtering of any MC-related errors into the least-squares adjustment results. A number of examples with different types of geodetic networks are also presented to demonstrate the theoretical findings of our study.     

Applications of AnnAGNPS model for soil loss estimation and nutrient loading for Malaysian conditions

The study evaluated the performance and suitability of AnnAGNPS model in assessing runoff, sediment loading and nutrient loading under Malaysian conditions. The watershed of River Kuala Tasik in Malaysia, a combination of two sub-watersheds, was selected as the area of study. The data for the year 2004 was used to calibrate the model and the data for the year 2005 was used for validation purposes. Several input parameters were computed using methods suggested by other researchers and studies carried out in Malaysia. The study shows that runoff was predicted well with an overall R² value of 0.90 and E value of 0.70. Sediment loading was able to produce a moderate result of R² = 0.66 and E = 0.49, nitrogen loading predictions were slightly better with R² = 0.68 and E = 0.53, and phosphorus loading performance was slightly poor with an R² = 0.63 and E = 0.33. The erosion map developed was in agreement with the erosion risk map produced by the Department of Agriculture, Malaysia. Rubber estates and urban areas were found to be the main contributors to soil erosion. The simulation results showed that AnnAGNPS has the potential to be used as a valuable tool for planning and management of watersheds under Malaysian conditions.     

Comparing spatially varying coefficient models: a case study examining violent crime rates and their relationships to alcohol outlets and illegal drug arrests

In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian model.