Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.     

Life after death: shallow‐water Mediterranean invertebrate communities associated with mammal bones

Invertebrate and microbial marine communities associated with mammal bones are interesting and poorly understood habitats, mainly known from studies on deep‐water whale remains. In order to characterize these communities in the shallow‐water Mediterranean, we present here the results of a pioneering experiment using mammal bones. Minke whale, pig and cow bones were experimentally deployed on three different background communities: rocky substrate, soft‐bottom and a Posidonia oceanica meadow. Bones were deployed for a year at about 20 m depth and collected every 3 months, and the invertebrate fauna colonizing the bones was identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. As expected, mammal bones showed remarkable differences when compared with background communities. Within bones, four different clusters could be identified, primarily on the basis of the polychaete fauna, the most abundant and diverse group in the survey. Clusters A1–A3 corresponded to high to moderately altered successional stages composed by a fauna closer to that of anthropogenically enriched shallow‐water environments. These clusters were characterized by the occurrence of the opportunist polychaetes Ophryotrocha puerilis, Neanthes caudata (Cluster A1), Protodorvillea kefersteini (Cluster A2) and Ophryotrocha alborana (Cluster A3). Cluster B was characterized by the presence of the polychaete Oxydromus pallidus together with typical invertebrate background fauna, which suggests that this community, after a year of deployment, was closer to that found in natural conditions. As opposed to similar shallow‐water studies in other geographic areas, no occurrence of the polychaete Osedax (commonly known as bone‐eating worms) was reported from our experiments. Apart from the study on the invertebrate communities, insights about the population dynamics of three of the most abundant species (O. puerilis, O. alborana, N. caudata) are given as well as remarks on a hypothetical trophic network based on fecal pellet analysis.     

Spatial distribution of crustaceans associated with shallow soft‐bottom habitats in a coral reef lagoon

The ecology and diversity of the shallow soft‐bottom areas adjacent to coral reefs are still poorly known. To date, the few studies conducted in these habitats dealing with macroinvertebrate fauna have focused on their abundance spatial patterns at high taxonomic levels. Thus, some aspects important to evaluate the importance and vulnerability of these habitats, such as species diversity or the degree of habitat specialization, have often been overlooked. In this study we compared the crustacean assemblages present in four different habitats at Magoodhoo Island coral reef lagoon (Maldives): coral rubble, sandy areas and two different seagrass species (Thalassia hemprichii and Cymodocea sp.). Forty‐two different crustacean species belonging to 30 families and four orders were found. ‘Site’ was a significant factor in all of the statistical analyses, indicating that tropical soft‐bottom habitats can be highly heterogeneous, even at a spatial scale between tens and hundreds of meters. Although traditionally it has been considered that seagrass beds host greater species diversity and abundance of organisms than adjacent unvegetated habitats, no differences in the univariate measures of fauna (abundance of organisms, number of species and Shannon diversity) were observed among habitats. However, sandy areas, coral rubble and seagrass beds exhibited different species composition of crustacean communities. The percentage of taxa considered as potential habitat specialists was 27% and the number of species exclusively occurring in one habitat was especially high in seagrass beds. Thus, degradation of this vegetated habitat would result in a great loss of biodiversity in tropical shallow soft‐bottom habitats.     

Indirect unstructured hex-dominant mesh generation using tetrahedra recombination

Corner-point gridding is widely used in reservoir and basin modeling but generally yields approximations in the representation of geological interfaces. This paper introduces an indirect method to generate a hex-dominant mesh conformal to 3D geological surfaces and well paths suitable for finite-element and control-volume finite-element simulations. By indirect, we mean that the method first generates an unstructured tetrahedral mesh whose tetrahedra are then merged into primitives (hexahedra, prisms, and pyramids). More specifically, we focus on determining the optimal set of primitives that can be recombined from a given tetrahedral mesh. First, we detect in the tetrahedral mesh all the feasible volumetric primitives using a pattern-matching algorithm (Meshkat and Talmor Int. J. Numer. Meth. Eng. 49(1-2), 17–30 2000) that we re-visit and extend with configurations that account for degenerated tetrahedra (slivers). Then, we observe that selecting the optimal set of primitives among the feasible ones can be formalized as a maximum weighted independent set problem (Bomze et al. 1999), known to be \(\mathcal {N}\mathcal {P}\)-Complete. We propose several heuristic optimizations to find a reasonable set of primitives in a practical time. All the tetrahedra of each selected primitive are then merged to build the final unstructured hex-dominant mesh. This method is demonstrated on 3D geological models including a faulted and folded model and a discrete fracture network.     

Mid and late Holocene forest fires and deforestation in the subalpine belt of the Iberian range,northern Spain

The conversion of subalpine forests into grasslands for pastoral use is a well-knownphenomenon, although for most mountain areas the timing of deforestation has not been determined. The presence of charcoal fragments in soil profiles affected by shallow landsliding enabled us to date the occurrence of fires and the periods of conversion ofsubalpine forest into grasslands in the Urbión Mountains, Iberian Range, Spain. We found that the treeline in the highest parts of the northwestern massifs of the Iberian Range(the Urbión, Demanda, Neila, and Cebollera massifs) is currently between 1500 and 1600 m a.s.l., probably because of pastoral use of the subalpine belt, whereas in the past it would have reached almost the highest divides(at approximately 2100–2200 m a.s.l.). The radiocarbon dates obtained indicate that the transformation of the subalpine belt occurred during the Late Neolithic, Chalcolithic, Bronze Age, Iron Age, and Middle Ages. Forest clearing was probably moderate during fires prior to the Middle Ages, as the small size of the sheep herds and the local character of the markets only required small clearings, and therefore more limited fires. Thus, it is likely that the forest recovered burnt areas in a few decades; this suggests the management of the forest and grasslands following a slash-andburn system. During the Middle and Modern Ages deforestation and grassland expansion affected most of the subalpine belt and coincided with the increasing prevalence of transhumance, as occurred in other mountains in the Iberian Peninsula(particularly the Pyrenees). Although the occurrence of shallow landslides following deforestation between the Neolithic and the Roman Period cannot be ruled out, the most extensive shallow landsliding processes would have occurred from the Middle Ages until recent times.