Runoff-generated debris flows: Observation of initiation conditions and erosion–deposition dynamics along the channel at Cancia (eastern Italian Alps)

In the Dolomitic region, abundant coarse hillslope sediment is commonly found at the toe of rocky cliffs. Ephemeral channels originate where lower permeability bedrock surfaces concentrate surface runoff. Debris flows initiate along such channels following intense rainfall and determine the progressive erosion and deepening of the channels. Sediment recharge mechanisms include rock fall, dry ravel processes and channel-bank failures. Here we document debris flow activity that took place in an active debris flow basin during the year 2015. The Cancia basin is located on the southwestern slope of Mount Antelao (3264 m a.s.l.) in the dolomitic region of the eastern Italian Alps. The 2.5 km² basin is incised in dolomitic limestone rocks. The data consist of repeated topographic surveys, distributed rainfall measurements, time-lapse (2 s) videos of two events and pore pressure measurements in the channel bed. During July and August 2015, two debris flow events occurred, following similarly intense rainstorms. We compared rainfall data to existing rainfall triggering thresholds and simulated the hydrological response of the headwater catchment with a distributed model in order to estimate the total and peak water discharge. Our data clearly illustrate how debris entrainment along the channel is the main contributor to the overall mobilized volume and that erosion is dominant when the channel slope exceeds 16°. Further downstream, sediment accumulation and depletion occurred alternately for the two successive events, indicating that sediment availability along the channel also influences the flow behaviour along the prevailing-transport reach. The comparison between monitoring data, topographical analysis and hydrological simulation allows the estimation of the average solid concentration of the two events and suggests that debris availability has a significant influence on the debris flow volume. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correction to: New insights into the rainfall variability in the tropical Andes on seasonal and interannual time scales

Climate Dynamics - The original version of the article contained errors in Fig.     

Delayed action and uncertain stabilisation targets. How much will the delay cost?

Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance.     

Probabilistic seismic response and reliability assessment of isolated bridges

Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forces transmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period and earthquake input energy reduction by dissipation concentrated in protection devices. In this paper, a stochastic analysis of a simple isolated bridge model for different bridge and device parameters is conducted to assess the efficiency of this seismic protection strategy. To achieve this aim, a simple nonlinear softening constitutive law is adopted to model a wide range of isolation devices, characterized by only three essential mechanical parameters. As a consequence of the random nature of seismic motion, a probabilistic analysis is carried out and the time modulated Kanai-Tajimi stochastic process is adopted to represent the seismic action. The response covariance in the state space is obtained by solving the Lyapunov equation for a stochastic linearized system. After a sensitivity analysis, the failure probability referred to extreme displacement and the mean value of dissipated energy are assessed by using the introduced stochastic indices of seismic bridge protection efficiency. A parametric analysis for protective devices with different mechanical parameters is developed for a proper selection of parameters of isolation devices under different situations.     

Rappresentazioni parziali e totali dell’ellissoide di rotazione sulla sfera

Riassunto L’A., partendo dall’idea di minimizzare l’energia di deformazione della rete geografica ellissoidica, supposta elastica, per adattarla a una sfera, determina una corrispondenza fra l’ellissoide di rotazione e la sfera locale in un intorno del punto di osculazione fino a 250 km di raggio. Ne risultano semplici formule per le correzioni angolari ai limiti dell’intorno e per la trasformazione delle coordinate. Successivamente l’A. sottopone a un esame critico varie funzioni che, estremate, dànno luogo a buone rappresentazioni dell’intero ellissoide sulla sfera ed introduce una nuova latitudine, utile per la costruzione di carte geografiche globulari, che risulta media fra la latitudine geocentrica e quella ridotta.

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Summary The Author, starting from the idea of minimizing the deformation energy of the ellipsoidic geographical network, which he supposes to be perfectly elastic in order to adapt it to a sphere, determines a correspondence between the rotation ellipsoid and the local sphere in the neighbourhood of the osculation point, to the distance of 250 km. He hereby deduces simple formulas for the angular corrections in the border of the neighbourhood and for appropriate transformation of coordinates. In the second part the A. takes into critical examination some functions, which, minimized, afford good representation of the whole ellipsoid on the sphere; he also introduces a new latitude that is revealed useful for the construction of globular geographical maps and numerically can be considered as a mean between the geocentric latitude and the reduced one.

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Dr.Carlo Bernasconi, Istituto Geofisico e Geodetico dell’Università diGenova.     

Seabed Morphology and Pollution Along the Bagnoli Coast (Naples, Italy): a Hypothesis for Environmental Restoration

Abstract. The interaction of coastal and submarine morphology with the hydrodynamic regimes exerts a control on coastal dynamic processes, conditioning the dispersion of sediments and potential pollutants existing in the area. Thus, the study of such parameters is useful in order to define environmental threats. Within the submerged sector of the Bagnoli coast and particularly in the southern part of the investigated area, there are sediment groups composed of very fine sands located in low-energy zones due to wave refraction and diffraction; they can also be found on the sea bottom and on the man-made structures typical of this zone. These areas show high pollutant levels of N, P, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cd, polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated bi-phenyls (PCBs). The northern area, a place of high-energy hydrodynamic processes, also shows high concentration levels of pollutants due to the presence of secondary cell circulation.
Morphological research and analysis of textural characteristics of bottom sediments along the Bagnoli coast allowed the actual processes and their evolution in space and time to be defined. It has also been possible to correlate such processes to the seabed morphology system, the wave formations which affect the coast, the complex system of sediment transport, as well as to the man-made interventions in the area. The results of recent chemical analyses of beach sediments and bottom sediments off the Bagnoli coast were also incorporated. They prove the presence of heavy metals, PAHs and PCBs in high and sometimes very high concentrations. Finally, based on the results of research and analyses, a hypothesis for an intervention for environmental restoration has been formulated in order to renaturalise the coast through dredging and treatment of the sand, both on the seabed and on the emerged beach.     

Use of a watershed hydrologic model to estimate interbasin groundwater flow in a Costa Rican rainforest

The watershed hydrologic model TOPMODEL was used to estimate interbasin groundwater flow (IGF) into a small lowland rainforest watershed in Costa Rica. IGF is a common hydrological process but often difficult to quantify. Four‐year simulations (2006–2009) using three different model approaches gave estimates of IGF that were very similar to each other (10.1, 10.2, and 9.8 m/year) and to an earlier estimate (10.0 m/year) based on 1998–2002 data from a budget study that did not use a hydrologic simulation model, providing confidence in the new estimates and suggesting each of the three model approaches is viable. Results show no significant temporal variation in IGF during 2006–2009 (or between this period and the earlier study from 1998–2002). Simulations of the 16 consecutive 3‐month periods in 2006–2009 gave 16 values of IGF rate with a mean (10.1 m/year, standard deviation = 0.6 m/year) very similar to the estimates above from the 4‐year simulations. This suggests the modified version of TOPMODEL can be used to model stream discharge and estimate IGF for sub‐annual time periods during which change in water storage is not necessarily equal to zero. Thus, simple watershed models may be used to estimate IGF based on even relatively short calibration periods, making such models useful tools in the study of this widespread hydrological process that affects water and chemical fluxes and budgets but is often difficult and costly to quantify. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic vulnerability of bridges in transport networks subjected to environmental deterioration

This paper investigates the problem of management, maintenance and planning of interventions in transport networks located in seismic zones, in relation to the actual state of degradation of their most vulnerable elements, as bridges. The study consists in two phases: the first phase is concerned with definition of the seismic vulnerability of a typical bridge in the network, through the construction of fragility curves calculated taking into account the corrosion of the reinforcing steel as the main cause of environmental deterioration. Once the fragility curves of the deteriorated bridges are computed, the second phase consists in the analysis of the vulnerability of the transport network in which the bridges are included taking into account the modification of the traffic flows when bridge infrastructures are damaged. The results of this pilot study can be used as a first step for a proper allocation of economic resources in the planning of seismic retrofit interventions to minimize the overall risk and manage the immediate post-earthquake emergency phase and guide rescuers in reaching the affected and critical areas.     

A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level for the European Union that quantifies potential regional changes in weather-related hazards: heat stress in relation to human health, river flood risk, and forest fire risk. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two future time periods, 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. The indicator values for the baseline period are validated against observed impact data. For each hazard, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic drivers of risk, such as land use and socio-economic change. An index of regional adaptive capacity has been developed and compared with overall hazard impact in order to identify the potentially most vulnerable regions in Europe. The results show strongest increases in impacts for heat stress, followed by forest fire risk, while for flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. A major difference with previous studies is that heat stress risk could increase most in central Europe, which is due to the ageing population there. An overall assessment combining the three hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climaterelated natural hazards for most parts of Europe, but hotspot regions are found in eastern and southern Europe due to their low adaptive capacities. This spatially explicit assessment can serve as a basis for discussing climate adaptation mainstreaming, and priorities for regional development in the EU.     

Main differences between thrust belts

It is useful to differentiate between thrust belts that are related to east(E)-dipping or west(W)-dipping subduction. More precisely, these either follow or resist the overall ‘eastward’ mantle flow detected by the hot-spot reference frame. Because of the overall ‘westward’ drift of the lithosphere we find in E-dipping subduction that the basal decollement underlying the eastern plate reaches the surface and involves deep crustal rocks. With W-dipping subduction, however, we find that the basal decollement of the eastern plate is warped as well as subducted. Consequently thrust belts related to E- (or NE-) dipping subduction show conspicuous structural and morphologic relief, involve deep crustal rocks, and are associated with shallow foredeeps. On the other hand, thrust belts related to W- (or SW-) dipping subduction show relatively low structural and morphological relief, involve only shallow upper crustal rocks and are associated with deep foredeeps as well as back-arc extension. The accretionary wedge-foredeep-back-arc basin association is visualized as an overall eastward propagating tectonic wave. The accretionary wedge forms in the frontal parts and generally below sea-level. This is followed by forward migrating extension that cuts the earlier accretionary wedge. Typically such a system occurs in the context of overall W-dipping subduction and is characterized by an arcuate shape (e.g. Carpathians, Apennines, Barbados, etc.). Along the branches of the arc external transpression and internal transtension co-exist but with different sense (i.e. sinistral transpression contrasting with dextral transtension). We also observe that with W-dipping subduction the tangent to a pre- deformation marker is descending into the foredeep at an angle in the range of 1–10° while with E-(or NE-)dipping subduction the same marker would rise towards the hinterland with typical angles of about 5–10°. Foredeep subsidence is mainly controlled by the load of the thrust sheets in thrust belts due to E-(or NE-)dipping subduction and by the roll-back of the subduction hinge in accretionary wedges due to W-dipping subduction. Subsidence or uplift rates in the foredeeps and accretionary wedges related to the two different types of subduction are very different, providing different P-T-t paths in the two geodynamic realms. The present shape and structure of the thrust belts belonging to one of these two general types may help us in reconstructing the location of thinned lithosphere and basin evolution in the past.