Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential and difference equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the planetary environments. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a directed density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. We concentrate on two models, the first describing zero population growth (ZPG) and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which we find an asymptotic travelling wave solution. For both models the colonization wavefront expands slowly and uniformly, but only the frontier worlds are sources of further expansion. For nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the Earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 × 10⁶ years. If discretization can be neglected, the critical lifetime is 2.0 × 10⁷ years. For ZPG the corresponding number is 1.3 × 10¹⁰ years. These numerical results depend on our choices for the specific emigration rate, the distribution of colonizable worlds, and, in the second model, the population growth rate; but the dependence on these parameters is entrancingly weak. We conclude that the Earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring societies are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible lifetime of the colonization phase of nearby galactic civilizations. This phase is, we contend, eventually outgrown. We also conclude that, except possibly early in the history of the Galaxy, there are no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of conquest of inhabited worlds; there is no Galactic Empire. There may, however, be abundant groups of ～10⁵ to 10⁶ worlds linked by a common colonial heritage. The radar and television announcement of an emerging technical society on Earth may induce a rapid response by nearby civilizations, thus newly motivated to reach our system directly rather than by diffusion.     

Atmospheric modeling of Mars methane surface releases

We utilize the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM) to address the behavior of gas plumes in the Martian atmosphere, with the specific goal of characterizing the source of the recently identified methane detection in the Martian atmosphere. These observations have been interpreted as the release of methane from localized surface sources with spatial and temporal variabilities. Due to the limited temporal coverage of ground-based observations, we use a GCM to simulate the development of passive atmospheric plumes over relevant timescales. The observations can be reproduced best if the release occurred just before the time of observation—no more than 1–2 sols earlier—and if this release were nearly instantaneous rather than a slow, steady emission. Furthermore, it requires a source region spanning a broad latitudinal range rather than a point emission. While the accuracy of our conclusions about this specific methane release scenario is limited by the uncertainties inherent in GCM simulations of the Martian atmosphere, our findings regarding generalized plume behavior are robust, and illustrate the potential power of numerical modeling for constraining plume source conditions.     

Differential citizenship in the shadow state

State restructuring through decentralization, privatization, and related processes has prompted the growth of the non-profit sector as a `shadow state' increasingly responsible for social service delivery and community development. In this context, the question arises as to how citizenship, defined as inclusion in a polity through the distribution of rights and resources, is realized within the shadow state. If non-profit organizations are assuming functions of the state but access to the shadow state is unevenly distributed, the result may be selective disenfranchisement or differential citizenship. This paper examines the nature of differential access to citizenship within the shadow state by looking at the practices and contexts of non-profit community development corporations (CDCs) in the city of Newark, New Jersey. The shadow state is affected by structural and contextual influences including financial, policy, and political factors that produce differential organizational capacity, uneven spatial coverage, client selectivity, inadequate program support, unrecognized need, and unconsidered clients' preferences. These contextualized practices in turn result in differential access to citizenship in the shadow state. Solutions to the problem of differential citizenship require improvements in the structural and contextual conditions influencing the scope and capacity of the non-profit sector.     

Seismic sentinel? An analysis of captive giant panda behavior in response to the Lushan earthquake in China

It is widely believed that various animal species can sense and respond to the geophysical stimuli that precede earthquakes, especially electromagnetic fields, although supporting field evidence is mostly anecdotal. Here we report on the reactions of four female giant pandas under observation over the three days prior to the Lushan (30.1°N, 103.0°E) magnitude 7.0 earthquake that occurred in Sichuan province, China, on April 20, 2013. We observed no significant generalized behavioral anomalies indicative of them perceiving an impending earthquake. We also observed no startle behaviors in the 5 s prior to tremors commencing, indicating that these pandas either did not detect or did not respond to precursor P-waves. Our findings suggest that although giant pandas have evolved in, and continue to occupy exclusively, a seismically active range in central China, they do not appear to perceive pre-earthquake geophysical warning signs.     

A simplified approach to analysing historical and recent tritium data in surface waters

Tritium concentrations in river and stream waters from different locations can be compared by normalizing them using the ratio of tritium concentrations in precipitation and surface water (C_p/C_s) in the study area. This study uses these ratios in a hydrological residence time context to make regional‐ and global‐scale comparisons about river basin dynamics. Prior to the advent of nuclear weapons testing, the C_p/C_s ratio was greater than or equal to 1 everywhere because of the decay of tritium in the watershed after it was deposited by precipitation. After an initial increase in the ratios during the bomb peak, the ratio dropped to less than 1 for most surface waters in the following years. This post‐bomb change in the ratio is due to the retention of the bomb‐pulse water in watersheds on timescales that are long relative to the residence time of tritium in the atmosphere. Ratios were calculated for over 6500 measurements of tritium in river and stream waters compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These measurements span the post‐nuclear era (1940s to present) and include many long‐term datasets, which make it possible to examine residence times of waters in watersheds on a global basis. Plotting C_p/C_s versus time shows that ratios tended to reach a minimum in approximately one to two decades after the bomb peak for most locations. This result suggests that changes affecting quantity and quality of river flows need to be assessed on a multi‐decadal timescale. These long lag times have significant implications for assessing climate or land‐use change impacts on a large number of river systems around the world. The continuing value of tritium in studying surface water systems for both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere is also demonstrated. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Comparison of 230Th-238U disequilibrium systematics in lavas from three hot spot regions: Hawaii,Prince Edward and Samoa

²³⁰Th-²³⁸U disequilibrium systematics reveal several important characteristics of the mantle source regions and petrogenesis of volcanic rocks in the presumed hot spots of Hawaii, Marion Island (Prince Edward hot spot), and Samoa. The (${}^{230}\text{Th}{}^{232}\text{Th}$) activity ratios of lavas from these three hot spots (1.06 ± 0.07, 1.04 ± 0.08, and 0.81 ± 0.06, respectively) imply that the source regions are each nearly homogeneous with $\text{Th}\text{U}$ weight ratios of 2.9, 3.0, and 3.8. For Marion Island and Mauna Kea, Hawaii, negligible secular variation occurs in the (${}^{230}\text{Th}{}^{232}\text{Th}$) initial ratios. This supports other evidence for very short transfer time between source and surface. Significant residence time at depth prior to eruption cannot be ruled out for the Samoan lavas we have studied; however, the data for one of these flows deviate from the proposed (${}^{230}\text{Th}{}^{232}\text{Th}$)-${}^{87}\text{Sr}{}^{86}\text{Sr}$ correlation (Condomineset al., 1981a) in the opposite sense from that expected for such residence. If it is assumed that the measured (${}^{230}\text{Th}{}^{232}\text{Th}$) ratios of the young lavas reflect $\text{Th}\text{U}$ in their mantle sources, then the observed variations among these three hot spots, combined with those reported by other workers for Iceland, the Azores and Tristan de Cunha, suggest that these sources are characterized by $\text{Th}\text{U}$ ratios ranging from values similar to that of MORB source (~2.5) to values similar to those of bulk earth (~3.8). Mixing of different proportions of depleted and enriched mantle may be responsible for the observed range.     

Hydrocarbons in 60 northeast Gulf of Mexico shelf sediments: a preliminary survey

Hydrocarbon results from gas chromatography of 60 recent sediment and 10 benthic algae samples delineate two distinct shelf environments in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.Sediments off Florida (shell hashes and sands) have moderate amounts of lipids/total sediment (average 113ppm ± 80%) but low hydrocarbon levels (average 3.06 ppm ± 41%). Aliphatic hydrocarbons are dominated by a series of branched or cyclic, unsaturated C₂₅ isomers. The major n-alkane is n-C₁₇. The n-alkane and isoprenoid patterns are consistent with a marine hydrocarbon source.Sediments closer to the Mississippi River (silts and clays) contain large amounts of lipids (average 232 ppm ± 53%) and hydrocarbons (average 11.7 ppm ± 55%) to total sediment. Aliphatic hydrocarbons are mainly odd carbon number high molecular weight n-alkanes, indicating a terrigenous hydrocarbon source. Isoprenoids are present in greater abundance than in sediments off Florida (n-C₁₇/ pristane and n-C₁₈/phytane ratios ~2to 3). Relatively large amounts of n-C₁₆, together with an even distribution of n-alkanes in the range C₁₄–C₂₀ and a substantial unresolved envelope all point to a fossil fuel input to the Mississippi samples.Samples off the Alabama coast show intermediate characteristics.     

Modeling the Effects of Future Outflow on the Abiotic Habitat of an Imperiled Estuarine Fish

Future development and climate change pose potentially serious threats to estuarine fish populations around the world. We examined how habitat suitability for delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a state and federally protected species, might be affected by changes in outflow in the San Francisco Estuary due to future development and climate change. Forty years of sampling data collected during fall from 1967 to 2008 were examined to define abiotic habitat suitability for delta smelt as a function of salinity and water transparency, and to describe long-term trends in habitat conditions. The annual habitat index we developed, which incorporated both quantity and quality of habitat, decreased by 78% over the study period. Future habitat index values under seven different development and climate change scenarios, representing a range of drier and wetter possibilities, were predicted using a model which related estuarine outflow to the habitat index. The results suggested that each of the scenarios would generally lead to further declines in delta smelt habitat across all water year types. Recovery targets for delta smelt will be difficult to attain if the modeled habitat conditions are realized.     

Project NOAH: Regulating modern sea-level rise. Phase II: Jerusalem Underground

This proposal builds a high-speed inter-urban express between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, generates 1500 megawatts of hydroelectric energy, curtails littoral erosion, builds a port along the Israeli Mediterranean coast and demands peaceful cooperation on both sides of the Jordan River. Phase II represents a pilot project demonstrating the feasibility of continuing to regulate world sea-level by a new series of water regulation schemes. Phase I previously described all those projects already completed or underway which have inadvertently and/or unintentionally served the purpose of sea-level regulation. These forms of Phase I sea-level regulation include large and small reservoirs, irrigation projects, water infiltration schemes, farm ponds, and swimming and reflecting pools. All these water storage projects have already exercised a very appreciable brake on 20th century sea-level rise. Phase II outlines a high-visibility proposal which will serve to illustrate the viability of “Project NOAH”.