Comparing spatially varying coefficient models: a case study examining violent crime rates and their relationships to alcohol outlets and illegal drug arrests

In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian model.      

Evaluation of pre-CHAMP gravity models `GRIM5-S1' and `GRIM5-C1' with satellite crossover altimetry

 The new GFZ/GRGS gravity field models GRIM5-S1 and GRIM5-C1, currently used as initial models for the CHAMP mission, have been compared with other recent models (JGM 3, EGM 96) for radial orbit accuracy (by means of latitude lumped coefficients) in computations on altimetry satellite orbits. The bases for accuracy judgements are multi-year averages of crossover sea height differences from Geosat and ERS 1/2 missions. This radially sensitive data is fully independent of the data used to develop these gravity models. There is good agreement between the observed differences in all of the world's oceans and projections of the same errors from the scaled covariance matrix of their harmonic geopotential coefficients. It was found that the tentative scale factor of five for the formal standard deviations of the harmonic coefficients of the new GRIM fields is justified, i.e. the accuracy estimates, provided together with the GRIM geopotential coefficients, are realistic. Received: 20 February 2001 / Accepted: 24 October 2001     

Reducing the draconitic errors in GNSS geodetic products

Systematic errors at harmonics of the GPS draconitic year have been found in diverse GPS-derived geodetic products like the geocenter $Z$ -component, station coordinates, $Y$ -pole rate and orbits (i.e. orbit overlaps). The GPS draconitic year is the repeat period of the GPS constellation w.r.t. the Sun which is about 351 days. Different error sources have been proposed which could generate these spurious signals at the draconitic harmonics. In this study, we focus on one of these error sources, namely the radiation pressure orbit modeling deficiencies. For this purpose, three GPS+GLONASS solutions of 8 years (2004–2011) were computed which differ only in the solar radiation pressure (SRP) and satellite attitude models. The models employed in the solutions are: (1) the CODE (5-parameter) radiation pressure model widely used within the International GNSS Service community, (2) the adjustable box-wing model for SRP impacting GPS (and GLONASS) satellites, and (3) the adjustable box-wing model upgraded to use non-nominal yaw attitude, specially for satellites in eclipse seasons. When comparing the first solution with the third one we achieved the following in the GNSS geodetic products. Orbits: the draconitic errors in the orbit overlaps are reduced for the GPS satellites in all the harmonics on average 46, 38 and 57 % for the radial, along-track and cross-track components, while for GLONASS satellites they are mainly reduced in the cross-track component by 39 %. Geocenter $Z$ -component: all the odd draconitic harmonics found when the CODE model is used show a very important reduction (almost disappearing with a 92 % average reduction) with the new radiation pressure models. Earth orientation parameters: the draconitic errors are reduced for the $X$ -pole rate and especially for the $Y$ -pole rate by 24 and 50 % respectively. Station coordinates: all the draconitic harmonics (except the 2nd harmonic in the North component) are reduced in the North, East and Height components, with average reductions of 41, 39 and 35 % respectively. This shows, that part of the draconitic errors currently found in GNSS geodetic products are definitely induced by the CODE radiation pressure orbit modeling deficiencies.     

Multifrequency algorithms for precise point positioning: MAP3

We present the new MAP3 algorithms to perform static precise point positioning (PPP) from multifrequency and multisystem GNSS observations. MAP3 represents a two-step strategy in which the least squares theory is applied twice to estimate smoothed pseudo-distances, initial phase ambiguities, and slant ionospheric delay first, and the absolute receiver position and its clock offset in a second adjustment. Unlike the classic PPP technique, in our new approach, the ionospheric-free linear combination is not used. The combination of signals from different satellite systems is accomplished by taking into account the receiver inter-system bias. MAP3 has been implemented in MATLAB and integrated within a complete PPP software developed on site and named PCube. We test the MAP3 performance numerically and contrast it with other external PPP programs. In general, MAP3 positioning accuracy with low-noise GPS dual-frequency observations is about 2.5 cm in 2-h observation periods, 1 cm in 10 h, and 7 mm after 1 day. This means an improvement in the accuracy in short observation periods of at least 7 mm with respect to the other PPP programs. The MAP3 convergence time is also analyzed and some results obtained from real triple-frequency GPS and GIOVE observations are presented.     

Use of the L2C signal for inversions of GPS radio occultation data in the neutral atmosphere

Results from processing FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultations (RO) with the new GPS L2C signal acquired both in phase locked loop (PLL) and open loop (OL) modes are presented. Analysis of L2P, L2C, and L1CA signals acquired in PLL mode shows that in the presence of strong ionospheric scintillation not only L2P tracking, but also L1CA tracking often fails, while L2C tracking is most stable. The use of L2C improves current RO processing in the neutral atmosphere mainly by increasing the number of processed occultations (due to significant reduction in the number of L2 tracking failures) and marginally by a reduction in noise in statistics. The latter is due to the combination of reduced L2C noise (compared to L2P) and increased L1CA noise in those occultations where L2P would have failed. This result suggests application of OL tracking for L1CA and L2C signals throughout an entire occultation to optimally acquire RO data. Two methods of concurrent processing of L1CA and L2C RO signals are considered. Based on testing of individual occultations, these methods allow: (1) reduction in uncertainty of bending angles retrieved by wave optics in the lower troposphere and (2) reduction in small-scale residual errors of the ionospheric correction in the stratosphere.     

Non-linear motions of Australian geodetic stations induced by non-tidal ocean loading and the passage of tropical cyclones

We investigate daily and sub-daily non-tidal oceanic and atmospheric loading (NTOAL) in the Australian region and put an upper bound on potential site motion examining the effects of tropical cyclone Yasi that crossed the Australian coast in January/February 2011. The dynamic nature of the ocean is important, particularly for northern Australia where the long-term scatter due to daily and sub-daily oceanic changes increases by 20–55 % compared to that estimated using the inverted barometer (IB) assumption. Correcting the daily Global Positioning System (GPS) time series for NTOAL employing either a dynamic ocean model or the IB assumption leads to a reduction of up to 52 % in the weighted scatter of daily coordinate estimates. Differences between the approaches are obscured by seasonal variations in the GPS precision along the northern coast. Two compensating signals during the cyclone require modelling at high spatial and temporal resolution: uplift induced by the atmospheric depression, and subsidence induced by storm surge. The latter dominates ( \(>\) 135 %) the combined net effect that reaches a maximum of 14 mm, and 10 mm near the closest GPS site TOW2. Here, 96 % of the displacement is reached within 15 h due to the rapid transit of cyclones and the quasi-linear nature of the coastline. Consequently, estimating sub-daily NTOAL is necessary to properly account for such a signal that can be 3.5 times larger than its daily-averaged value. We were unable to detect the deformation signal in 2-hourly GPS processing and show that seasonal noise in the Austral summer dominates and precludes GPS detection of the cyclone-related subsidence.     

Surface description for urban climate studies: A gis based methodology

In order to understand the nature of the urban climate, predict the effects of urbanization, or attempt to ameliorate some of the negative hydroclimatic effects of urbanization, it is necessary to have a good understanding of the role and significance of the urban surface. This paper presents a methodology which uses GIS to represent the characteristics and morphology of the urban surface, which can be used to describe a site objectively, model fluxes, or ensure spatial consistency between measured and modelled data, all of which can vary through time. The methodology is illustrated with respect to Chicago, Illinois. Surface data collected at three spatial scales were used to construct a georeferenced database which was linked to an objective, dynamic accessing system. Spatial variability of surface cover, derived hydroclimatic attributes, and modelled fluxes associated with changes in the urban environment are used to illustrate potential applications of the approach.     

Computerized database on salt affected soils in western and central India using GIS

Salt affected soils occupy significant areas in western and central India manifested by the arid and semiarid climate, sandy/clayey soil texture, absence of natural drainage, and inadequate infrastructure and irrigation development. These soils are productive following reclamation and appropriate management. The National Remote Sensing Agency, Hyderabad (India) published state-wise maps of salt affected soils in India on 1:250,000 scale using a legend that includes physiography, soil characteristics, and the aerial extent of the mapping units. In the analogue form, voluminous data contained in such maps were difficult to handle by users of varied backgrounds. An attempt was made to prepare a computerized database of salt affected soils for easy access, retrieval, and manipulation of spatial and attribute data useful for management of salt affected soils. The salt affected soils maps were prepared, for Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra states, overlaying digitized layers of SAS polygons and the Survey of India basemap using the ILWIS (Integrated Land and Water Information System) software. GIS was used to prepare a composite (master) database of western and central India that showed the extent and distribution of salt affected soils. A relational database was prepared combining the digitized polygons with soil characteristics such as nature and degree of salinity (presence of higher concentration of neutral salts and neutral soil reaction), sodicity (presence of higher concentration of basic salts and alkaline reaction) and ground coverage. The regional and zonal databases of salt affected soils were prepared at a suitable scale overlaying agro-climatic regions agro-climatic zones. Spatial relation of salt affected soils with physiography, climate, geology, and agro-eco-sub-regions were evaluated employing map calculations in GIS. Saline soils were prevalent in Gujarat, and Rajasthan while sodic soils were dominant in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. These were distributed primarily in the arid (B) plain of Rajasthan, alluvial (A) and coastal (D) plains of Gujarat, and peninsular plain (F) of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. It occupied 2,596,942 ha (78%) in the western (Rajasthan and Gujarat) and 733,608 ha (22%) in the central (Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra) regions. The SAS occupied 3.3 million ha in the western and central region constituting 50% of the total salt affected soils in India. The saline and sodic soils occupied 2,069,285 ha (62%) and 1,261,266 ha (38%), respectively.     

Mapping spiny aster infestations with QuickBird imagery

QuickBird satellite imagery acquired in June 2003 and September 2004 was evaluated for detecting the noxious weed spiny aster [Leucosyris spinosa (Benth.) Greene] on a south Texas, USA rangeland area. A subset of each of the satellite images representing a diversity of cover types was extracted and used as a study site. The satellite imagery had a spatial resolution of 2.8 m and contained 11-bit data. Unsupervised and supervised classification techniques were used to classify false colour composite (green, red, and near-infrared bands) images of the study site. Imagery acquired in June was superior to that obtained in September for distinguishing spiny aster infestations. This was attributed to differences in spiny aster phenology between the two dates. An unsupervised classification of the June image showed that spiny aster had producer's and user's accuracies of 90% and 93.1%, respectively, whereas a supervised classification of the June image had producer's and user's accuracies of 90% and 81.8%, respectively. These results indicate that high resolution satellite imagery coupled with image analysis techniques can be used successfully for detecting spiny aster infestations on rangelands.     

Remote classification of Cerrado (Savanna) and agricultural land covers in northeastern Brazil

Remote classification of land-use/land-cover (LULC) types in Brazil's Cerrado ecoregion is necessary because knowledge of Cerrado LULC is incomplete, sources of inaccuracy are unknown, and high-resolution data are required for the validation of moderate-resolution LULC maps. The aim of this research is to discriminate between Cerrado and agriculture using high-resolution Landsat 7 ETM⁺ imagery for the western region of Bahia state in northeastern Brazil. The Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) and Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) algorithms were applied to a ～3000 km² subset, yielding comparable classification accuracies. The panchromatic band was reserved for validation. User's and producer's accuracies were highest for non-irrigated agriculture (～94%) but lower for Cerrado Lato Sensu (89%). Classification errors likely resulted from spatial and spectral characteristics of particular classes (e.g. riparian forest and burned) and overestimation of other classes (e.g. Eucalyptus and water). Manual misinterpretation of validation data may have also led to lower reported classification accuracies.