Tropospheric transport of continental tracers towards Antarctica under varying climatic conditions

We present a method to analyse tracer transit time climatologies based on the concept of tracer age. The method consists of introducing idealized, short-lived radioactively decaying tracers in a general circulation model of the atmosphere. Tracer age since emission is calculated at any given place in the atmosphere from the ratio of the concentrations of tracers with different lifetimes emitted over the same source area. An obvious use of this method is the analysis of transport of real tracers with similar lifetimes (such as dust particles) during different climatic periods. Here, this method is applied to transport from southern hemisphere continental source areas towards Antarctica at the present, the last glacial maximum (21 kyr BP) and the last glacial inception (115 kyr BP). It is found that the variation over time of atmospheric transport efficiency towards Antarctica depends on the tracer source region: changes for Patagonian tracers differ from those for tracers originating over Australia and southern Africa. Transport towards Antarctica during the last glacial maximum (LGM) is faster for Patagonian, but not for Australian and Southern African tracers. It is shown that for the time of the last glacial inception, tracer transit time towards Antarctica is not significantly different from the present, although signs of a more vigorous atmospheric circulation can be seen in the simulation.     

Theory of satellite ground-track crossovers

The fundamental geometry of satellite ground tracks and their crossover problem are investigated. For idealized nominal ground tracks, the geometry is governed by a few constant parameters whose variations lead to qualitative changes in the crossover solutions. On the basis that the theory to locate crossovers has not been studied in sufficient detail, such changes are described in regard to the number of crossover solutions in conjunction with their bifurcations. Employing the spinor algebra as a tool for establishing the ground-track crossing condition, numerical methodologies to locate crossovers appearing in general dual-satellite ground-track configurations are also presented. The methodologies are applied to precisely determined orbital ephemerides of the GEOSAT, ERS-1, and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter satellites. Received: 19 November 1996 / Accepted: 12 May 1997     

Innovations in Automation for Vision Metrology Systems

The advantages of vision metrology (VM) systems over their film-based counterparts, in terms of the degree of automation within the measurement process, were initially confined to the image mensuration stage. Of late, however, the potential of significantly raising the level of automation of offline and real time VM systems has been more fully exploited, to the point where full automation of the offline procedure has been realized. Innovative features such as automatic image point identification via coded targets, exterior orientation through automatically recognizable "control" groupings of target points, determination of image point correspondences within unlabelled point clouds, and real time tracking of multipoint, handheld measurement probes are now incorporated in industrial VM systems. Another significant innovation is the development of "smart" cameras with incorporated image processing and measurement capabilities which remove the necessity for transmitting image data to the host computer. This paper reviews recent innovations in automation and discusses their operational impact on practical VM applications. The concepts discussed are illustrated through reference to a modern VM system which supports offline and real time measurement.     

Reactive Nitrogen Compounds at Spitsbergen in the Norwegian Arctic

Simultaneousindependent measurements of NO_y and NO_x(NO_x= NO + NO₂) by high-sensitivitychemiluminescence systems and of PAN (peroxyacetylnitrate) and PPN (peroxypropionyl nitrate) by GC-ECDwere made at Spitsbergen in the Norwegian Arcticduring the first half year of 1994. The average mixingratio of the sum of PAN and PPN (denoted PANs)increased from around 150 pptv in early winter to amaximum of around 500 pptv in late March, whereasepisodic peak values reached 800 pptv. This occurredsimultaneously with a maximum in ozone which increasedto 45–50 ppbv in March–April. The average NO_xmixing ratio was 27 pptv and did not show any cyclethrough the period. The NO_y mixing ratio showeda maximum in late March, while the difference betweenNO_y and PAN decreased during spring. This is anindication of the dominance of PAN in the NO_ybudget in the Arctic, but possible changes in theefficiency of the NO_y converter could alsocontribute to this. Although most PAN in theArctic is believed to be due to long range transport,the observations indicate local loss and formationrates of up to 1–2 pptv h^-1 in April–May.Measurements of carbonyl compounds suggest thatacetaldehyde was the dominant, local precursor ofPAN.Now at 1.     

RECOGNISING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUANTIFICATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE

A widely used method of evaluating effects of climate change on flow regime is to perturb the climate inputs to a rainfall–runoff model and examine the effect on a statistic of the modelled flows. Such studies require four elements: a method of perturbing the climate, a rainfall–runoff model, a study catchment and a flow index. In practice the direction and magnitude of the estimated effects depend on each of the four elements, leading to concern over the usefulness and generality of the results. To investigate these uncertainties two climate scenarios and eight climate sensitivity tests have been applied to three UK catchments using two conceptual rainfall–runoff models in order to quantify effects of climate change on three flow indices representing mean runoff, flood magnitudes and low flows. The sensitivity tests were found to be useful to assess the suitability of the models to simulate flows outside the conditions experienced in their calibration. Both models gave internally consistent results but, on close examination, one model was found inappropriate for this application. Results show that the effect of climate change on flow varies between catchments and that different flow response indices can change in opposite directions, e.g. floods increased in magnitude while low flows reduced. Contrasting results were obtained from the two climate scenarios.     

Non-stationary Markov chains for modelling daily sunshine at São Paulo, Brazil

Summary Non-stationary, four-state Markov chains were used to model the sunshine daily ratios at São Paulo, Brazil. Fourier series were used to account for the periodic seasonal variations in the transition probabilities. All the regressions and tests, based on Generalized Linear Models, were made through the software GLIM. Significant seasonal variations were detected in the conditional probabilities, especially for the extreme categories of overcast and clear days. The fitted model provided a concise summary of the daily data, useful for short-range (1 day) sunshine predictions and simulations.With 6 Figures     

Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Plumes from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska Oil Fields

Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 10³ metrictons (C) hour^-1 (11.4× 10⁶ metric tons(C) year^-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 10³ metric tons (C) hour^-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 10³. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329).     

Water Resources Planning and Climate Change Assessment Methods

This paper, which provides background for other papers in the volume, first reviews the nature and development of water resources planning and evaluation criteria at the Federal level in the United States. These criteria constitute a highly developed, complex set of guidelines for project planning and evaluation. The level of development of these criteria and their long historical development from theoretical foundations must be taken into account in relating global climate change to possible changes in planning criteria. Second, the essentials of water project planning and evaluation, including benefit-cost principles and more complex concepts of social decision-making, are outlined. Third, the paper provides an overview of global climate change assessment methods, including impact assessment and integrated assessment. Impact assessment uses a relatively straightforward comparison of with and without situations; integrated assessment attempts to improve on impact assessment by developing more complex models that incorporate a range of feedbacks and interrelationships.