Helical Eruptive Prominence Associated with a Pair of Overlapping CMEs on 21 April 2001

The eruption of limb prominence on 21 April 2001 associated with two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is investigated. Hα images reveal two large-scale eruptions (a prominence body and a southern foot-point arch), both showing helical internal structure. These two eruptions are found to be spatially and temporally associated with the corresponding CMEs. The kinematics and the study of geometrical parameters of the prominence show that the eruption was quite impulsive (with peak acceleration ≈470 m s⁻²) and has taken place for relatively low pitch angle of helical threads, not exceeding tan θ≈1.2. The stability criteria of the prominence are revisited in the light of the model of Vršnak (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 295) and the analysis shows that the eruption violates the instability criteria of that model. Finally, the energy stored in the prominence circuit and the energies (kinetic, potential, and magnetic) of the associated CMEs are estimated and it is found that there was enough energy stored in the prominence to drive the two CMEs. S.S. Ali is on leave from Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, 202 002, India.     

Shrinking and Cooling of Flare Loops in a Two-Ribbon Flare

We analyze the evolution of the flare/postflare-loop system in the two-ribbon flare of November 3, 2003, utilizing multi-wavelength observations that cover the temperature range from several tens of MK down to 10⁴ K. A non-uniform growth of the loop system enables us to identify analogous patterns in the height–time, h(t), curves measured at different temperatures. The “knees,” “plateaus,” and “bends” in a higher-temperature curve appear after a certain time delay at lower heights in a lower-temperature curve. We interpret such a shifted replication as a track of a given set of loops (reconnected field lines) while shrinking and cooling after being released from the reconnection site. Measurements of the height/time shifts between h(t) curves of different temperatures provide a simultaneous estimate of the shrinkage speed and cooling rate in a given temperature domain, for a period of almost ten hours after the flare impulsive phase. From the analysis we find the following: (a) Loop shrinkage is faster at higher temperatures – in the first hour of the loop-system growth, the shrinkage velocity at 5 MK is 20 – 30 km s⁻¹, whereas at 1 MK it amounts to 5 km s⁻¹; (b) Shrinking becomes slower as the flare decays – ten hours after the impulsive phase, the shrinkage velocity at 5 MK becomes 5 km s⁻¹; (c) The cooling rate decreases as the flare decays – in the 5 MK range it is 1 MK min⁻¹ in the first hour of the loop-system growth, whereas ten hours later it decreases to 0.2 MK min⁻¹; (d) During the initial phase of the loop-system growth, the cooling rate is larger at higher temperatures, whereas in the late phases the cooling rate apparently does not depend on the temperature; (e) A more detailed analysis of shrinking/cooling around one hour after the impulsive phase reveals a deceleration of the loop shrinkage, amounting to ā ≈ 10 m s⁻² in the T < 5 MK range; (f) In the same interval, conductive cooling dominates down to T ≈ 3 MK, whereas radiation becomes dominant below T ≈ 2 MK; (g) A few hours after the impulsive phase, radiation becomes dominant across the whole T < 5 MK range. These findings are compared with results of previous studies and discussed in the framework of relevant models.     

A new pseudocylindrical equal-area projection for adaptive composite map projections

The recently introduced adaptive composite map projection technique changes the projection to the geographic area shown on a map. It is meant as a replacement for the commonly used web Mercator projection, which grossly distorts areas when representing the entire world. The original equal-area version of the adaptive composite map projection technique uses the Lambert azimuthal projection for regional maps and three alternative projections for world maps. Adaptive composite map projections can include a variety of other equal-area projections when the transformation between the Lambert azimuthal and the world projections uses Wagner’s method. To select the most suitable pseudocylindrical projection, the distortion characteristics of a pseudocylindrical projection family are analyzed, and a user study among experts in the area of map projections is carried out. Based on the results of the distortion analysis and the user study, a new pseudocylindrical projection is recommended for extending adaptive composite map projections. The new projection is equal-area throughout the transformation to the Lambert azimuthal projection and has better distortion characteristics then small-scale projections currently included in the adaptive composite map projection technique.     

Introducing the social participation concept in water management in Serbia, and related decision-making issues

This paper presents results obtained during recent studies of legal, financial, and organizational prerequisites to establish the water user associations (WUAs) in Vojvodina Province in Serbia. A procedure for launching a small-scale WUA is also proposed based on field data about two-fold irrigation and drainage systems. At a proof-of-concept level, the decision-making process is simulated by assuming the water users’ assembly as a group of representatives. By combining a multi-criteria method analytic hierarchy process with a social choice (voting) Borda method count, it was shown that a convincing decision-making framework is possible to establish and produce good final solutions (decisions).     

Origin of Coronal Shock Waves

The basic idea of the paper is to present transparently and confront two different views on the origin of large-scale coronal shock waves, one favoring coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the other one preferring flares. For this purpose, we first review the empirical aspects of the relationship between CMEs, flares, and shocks (as manifested by radio type II bursts and Moreton waves). Then, various physical mechanisms capable of launching MHD shocks are presented. In particular, we describe the shock wave formation caused by a three-dimensional piston, driven either by the CME expansion or by a flare-associated pressure pulse. Bearing in mind this theoretical framework, the observational characteristics of CMEs and flares are revisited to specify advantages and drawbacks of the two shock formation scenarios. Finally, we emphasize the need to document clear examples of flare-ignited large-scale waves to give insight on the relative importance of flare and CME generation mechanisms for type II bursts/Moreton waves.     

Type II Radio Bursts with High and Low Starting Frequencies

We report on the detailed analysis of i) differences between the properties of type IIs with various starting frequencies (high: ≥100 MHz; low: ≤50 MHz; mid: 50 MHz ≤f≤ 100 MHz) and ii) the properties of CMEs and flares associated with them. For this study, we considered a sample of type II radio bursts observed by Culgoora radio spectrograph from January 1998 to December 2000. The X-ray flares and CMEs associated with these events are identified using GOES and SOHO/LASCO data. The secondary aim is to study the frequency dependence on other properties of type IIs, flares, and CMEs. We found that the type IIs with high starting frequencies have larger drift rate, relative drift rate, and shock speed than the type IIs with low starting frequencies. The flares associated with high frequency type IIs are of impulsive in nature with shorter rise time, duration and delay between the flare start and type II start times than the low frequency type IIs. There is a distinct power – law relationship between the flare parameters and the starting frequencies of type II bursts, whereas the trend in the CME parameters shows low correlation. While the mean speed of CMEs is larger for the mid-frequency group, it is nearly the same for the high and low frequency groups. On the other hand, the percentage of CME association (90%) is larger for low frequency type IIs than for the high frequency type IIs (75%).     

A hidden suture within the northern Paleotethyan margin: Paleogeographic/paleo-tectonic constraints on the late Paleozoic 'Veles Series' (Vardar Zone,North Macedonia)

There is little consensus in characterizing the effects of the migrated late Pan-African/Lower Paleozoic configuration (western Paleotethys and precursory Paleozoic oceans) and its Variscan, late Variscan, and Eo-Cimmerian involvement. Constrained by a limited choice of the geological, biostratigraphical, and paleogeographical constraints, the focus of this regional geological synthesis is the little-known Devonian – Lower Carboniferous polymetamorphic 'Veles Series' (southern Vardar-Axios Zone, Northeast Mediterranean). Kinematic reconstructions indicate that the drifted carbonate platform assemblage of the 'Veles Series' including its Lower Carboniferous collision occurred along an active margin of southwestern Moesia, Laurussian foreland. Despite the fact that the dominant, low-grade metamorphic imprint across the 'Veles Series' is compatible with the ‘soft’ Eo-Cimmerian docking (i.e. Triassic), the documented Lower Carboniferous age suggests a Variscan involvement.A distinctive Late Paleozoic age is consistent with the north Gondwana and Variscan developments, reflected by the peculiar protoliths pallet portraying the presence of the oceanic crust to deep-marine equivalents. Accommodated to the west (paleo-south) of the late Cadomian Serbo-Macedonian Unit (a segment of the former peri-Gondwanan terrane assembly) and to the north of the Cimmerian Minoan system (East Mediterranean), the 'Veles Series' reflects a migrated rift to carbonate platform system. Despite the significant Alpine overprinting, based on this regional geological synthesis we propose that the 'Veles Series' is a 60 km-long suture segment documenting a so far rather poorly explored Variscan segment of the Paleotethyan lithosphere exposed within Balkans/Northeast Mediterranean.     

Vertical Dynamics of the Energy Release Process in a Simple two-Ribbon Flare

Observations of the quiescent filament eruption and the spotless two-ribbon flare of 12 September 2000 are presented. A simple flare morphology, large spatial scales, and a suitable viewing angle provide insight into characteristics of the energy release process which is attributed to the reconnection process in the current sheet formed below the eruptive filament. The flare ribbons appeared and started to expand laterally while the filament was still recognizable, enabling simultaneous measurements of the ribbon separation w and the height of the lower edge of the filament, h. The ratio w/h estimated for the expanding portions of ribbons indicates that the width-to-length ratio of the current sheet at the onset of the fast reconnection ranges between and . The ribbon elements characterized by w/h> remained stationary. The Nançay radioheliograph data in the decimeter–meter wavelengths show one group of radio bursts ahead of the filament (moving type IV burst) and another group behind the filament. The centroids of the radio sources behind the filament were confined to the region outlined by the lower edge of the filament and the magnetic inversion line, suggestive of emission from the current sheet. Sources were preferably located close to the lower edge of the filament and some appeared close to the magnetic inversion line. Two possible explanations are discussed: one in terms of the fast-mode bow shocks in the reconnection outflow jets, and another in terms of a multiple tearing of the current sheet and subsequent coalescence of plasmoids.     

Validation of the CME Geomagnetic Forecast Alerts Under the COMESEP Alert System

Under the European Union 7th Framework Programme (EU FP7) project Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP, http://comesep.aeronomy.be ), an automated space weather alert system has been developed to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. The COMESEP alert system uses the automated detection tool called Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) to detect potentially threatening CMEs, a drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival, and a CME geoeffectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, the DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and the CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. The geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geoeffectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with the COMESEP alert system based on a study of geoeffective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is made by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of the DBM and CGFT (independent tools available at the Hvar Observatory website, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr ). The results indicate that the success rate of the forecast in its current form is unacceptably low for a realistic operation system. Human intervention improves the forecast, but the false-alarm rate remains unacceptably high. We discuss these results and their implications for possible improvement of the COMESEP alert system.     

Type-II Bursts in Meter and Deca – Hectometer Wavelengths and Their Relation to Flares and CMEs: II

Solar coronal holes (CHs) are large regions of the corona magnetically open to interplanetary space. The nearly rigid north?–?south CH boundaries (CHBs) of equatorward extensions of polar CHs are maintained while the underlying photospheric fields rotate differentially, so interchange magnetic reconnection is presumed to be occurring continually at the CHBs. The time and size scales of the required reconnection events at CHBs have not been established from previous observations with soft X-ray images. We use TRACE 195 Å observations on 9 December 2000 of a long-lived equatorial extension of the negative-polarity north polar CH to look for changes of ??5 arcsec to >?20 arcsec at the western CHB. Brightenings and dimmings are observed on both short (≈?5 minutes) and long (≈?7 hours) time scales, but the CHB maintains its quasi-rigid location. The transient CHB changes do not appear associated with either magnetic field enhancements or the changes in those field enhancements observed in magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on SOHO. In seven hours of TRACE observations we find no examples of the energetic jets similar to those observed to occur in magnetic reconnection in polar plumes. The lack of dramatic changes in the diffuse CHB implies that gradual magnetic reconnection occurs high in the corona with large (??10°) loops and/or weak coronal fields. We compare our results with recent observations of active regions at CHBs. We also discuss how the magnetic polarity symmetry surrounding quasi-rigid CHs implies an asymmetry in the interchange reconnection process and a possible asymmetry in the solar wind composition from the eastern and western CHB source regions.