The 3-D Sun and heliosphere at solar maximum

Bob Forsyth and Andy Breen report from the RAS G Discussion Meeting at the Geological Society on 11 January 2002. Presentations came from both the solar and heliospheric communities, on the 3-D structure and dynamics of the solar corona and heliosphere and their inter-relation during the present maximum in the solar activity cycle.     

Mixed estimation methods for Halphen distributions with applications in extreme hydrologic events

The Halphen family of distributions is a flexible and complete system to fit sets of observations independent and identically distributed. Recently, it is shown that this family of distributions represents a potential alternative to the generalized extreme value distributions to model extreme hydrological events. The existence of jointly sufficient statistics for parameter estimation leads to optimality of the method of maximum likelihood (ML). Nevertheless, the ML method requires numerical approximations leading to less accurate values. However, estimators by the method of moments (MM) are explicit and their computation is fast. Even though MM method leads to good results, it is not optimal. In order to combine the advantages of the ML (optimality) and MM (efficiency and fast computations), two new mixed methods were proposed in this paper. One of the two methods is direct and the other is iterative, denoted respectively direct mixed method (MMD) and iterative mixed method (MMI). An overall comparison of the four estimation methods (MM, ML, MMD and MMI) was performed using Monte Carlo simulations regarding the three Halphen distributions. Generally, the MMI method can be considered for the three Halphen distributions since it is recommended for a majority of cases encountered in hydrology. The principal idea of the mixed methods MMD and MMI could be generalized for other distributions with complicated density functions.     

Implications for place attachment in coastal Reserve management

This study determined the characteristics of North Carolina Coastal Reserve and North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve (jointly referred to as Reserve) visitors, visitor opinions of site conditions, visitor understanding of site management objectives, and patterns of visitation. The latter were investigated to obtain a proxy of place attachment and its effects on knowledge of ownership and perceptions of management. Data were collected on demographics, use patterns, visitor perceptions, and visitor knowledge during the period of 25 May-28 October, 2007. Visitors were educated, wealthy, older, racially homogeneous, and frequent returnees. The majority of respondents supported existing management activities and the implementation of additional use restrictions should site conditions deteriorate. Data indicated that respondents were unaware of which agency manages the Reserve sites or its mission. These findings suggest that management needs to engage in more education of the visiting public. Sensitizing the public to the mission of the Reserve and increasing place attachment could decrease negative visitor impacts.     

Southern Quebec (Canada) summer-season heat spells over the 1941–2000 period: an assessment of observed changes

Summary Summer-season (May–September) daily maximum temperature (T _max) and daily minimum temperature (T _min) observations and three types of heat spells obtained from these temperature observations at seven weather stations located in southern Quebec (Canada) for the 60-year period from 1941 to 2000 are studied to assess temporal changes in their characteristics (i.e. frequency of occurrence, seasonal hot days and extremal durations of heat spells). Type-A and Type-B heat spells are obtained respectively from T _max and T _min observations and Type-C heat spells from simultaneous joint observations of T _max and T _min using suitable thresholds and spells of duration ≥1-day and ≥3-day. The results of this investigation show that the majority of the selected percentiles (i.e. 5P, 10P, 25P, 50P, 75P, 80P, 90P, 92P, 95P, and 98P) of T _max observations show a negative time-trend with statistically significant decreases (at 10% level) in some of the higher percentiles and in the maximal values at four out of seven stations. Almost all of the selected percentiles (same as for the T _max) and the maximal and minimal values of T _min observations show a positive trend, with statistically significant increases for all seven stations. Examination of frequencies of occurrence of heat spells, seasonal hot days and annual extremes of heat spell durations indicate that many of these characteristics of heat spells have undergone statistically significant changes over time at some of the stations for Type-A and Type-B heat spells as compared to Type-C heat spells. The Type-C heat spells are generally small in number and are found to be relatively temporally stable. More severe Type-C heat spells, i.e. the ones having T _max and T _min values simultaneously above very high thresholds and with duration ≥3-day have been rarely observed in southern Quebec.     

The behavior of total lightning activity in severe Florida thunderstorms

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 fpm, with some values reaching 500 fpm. Similar to earlier results for thunderstorm microbursts, the peak flash rate precedes the severe weather at the ground by 5–20 min. A distinguishing feature of severe storms is the presence of lightning ‘jumps' — abrupt increases in flash rate in advance of the maximum rate for the storm. The systematic total lightning precursor to severe weather of all kinds — wind, hail, tornadoes — is interpreted in terms of the updraft that sows the seeds aloft for severe weather at the surface and simultaneously stimulates the ice microphysics that drives the intracloud lightning activity.