The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important tool to compare the costs and benefits of different climate policies. Recently, attention has been given to the effect of different discounting methods and damage estimates on the results of IAMs. One aspect to which little attention has been paid is how the representation of the climate system may affect the estimated benefits of mitigation action. In that respect, we analyse several well-known IAMs, including the newest versions of FUND, DICE and PAGE. Given the role of IAMs in integrating information from different disciplines, they should ideally represent both best estimates and the ranges of anticipated climate system and carbon cycle behaviour (as e.g. synthesised in the IPCC Assessment reports). We show that in the longer term, beyond 2100, most IAM parameterisations of the carbon cycle imply lower CO₂ concentrations compared to a model that captures IPCC AR4 knowledge more closely, e.g. the carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC6. With regard to the climate component, some IAMs lead to much lower benefits of mitigation than MAGICC6. The most important reason for the underestimation of the benefits of mitigation is the failure in capturing climate dynamics correctly, which implies this could be a potential development area to focus on.     

A reevaluation of in situ cosmogenic 3He production rates

³He is among the most commonly measured terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides, but an incomplete understanding of the ³He production rate has limited robust interpretation of cosmogenic ³He concentrations. We use new measurements of cosmogenic ³He in olivine from a well-dated lava flow at Tabernacle Hill, Utah, USA, to calibrate the local ³He production rate. The new ³He measurements (n = 8) show excellent internal consistency and yield a sea level high latitude (SLHL) production rate of 123 ± 4 at g^?1 yr^?1 following the Lal (1991)/Stone (2000) scaling model [Lal, D., 1991. Cosmic ray labeling of erosion surfaces: in situ nuclide production rates and erosion models. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 104, 424–439.; Stone, J.O., 2000. Air pressure and cosmogenic isotope production. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105, 23753–23759.]. We incorporate the new measurements from Tabernacle Hill in a compilation of all published production rate determinations, characterizing the mean global SLHL production rates (e.g. 120 ± 9.4 at g^?1 yr^?1 with Lal (1991)/Stone (2000)). The internal consistency of the global ³He production rate dataset is as good as the other commonly used cosmogenic nuclides. Additionally, ³He production rates in olivine and pyroxene agree within experimental error. The ³He production rates are implemented in an age and erosion rate calculator, forming a new module of the CRONUS-Earth web-based calculator, a simple platform for cosmogenic nuclide data interpretation [Balco, G., Stone, J., Lifton, N.A., and Dunai, T.J., 2008. A complete and easily accessible means of calculating surface exposure ages or erosion rates from ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al measurements. Quaternary Geochronology, 3, 174–195.]. The ³He calculator is available online at http://www.cronuscalculators.nmt.edu/.     

Statistical Insights Regarding Fully Softened Shear Strength

The fully softened shear strength (FSS) concept is a practical approximation of the mobilized drained shear strength of first-time slides in stiff-fissured clays. There has been a recent increase in interest in measurement and estimation of FSS secant friction angle (FSS-ϕ′sec) to develop correlations for preliminary design and cost approximation. However, such correlations do not help in understanding the cause and effect relationship between soil properties and FSS-ϕ′sec. In this study, a laboratory database containing FSS-ϕ′sec values (output) and soil properties (inputs) of several overconsolidated clays is used to develop a predictive model for FSS-ϕ′sec (output or response). The goal is to detect which inputs from the whole parameter space dominate the response while creating an accurate prediction tool to provide statistical insights regarding the FSS-ϕ′sec. The proposed methodology is used to assess and quantify the relationships among variables, estimate testing device effects on FSS-ϕ′sec, and analyze the danger of extrapolation due to model constraints. The applicability of the predicted FSS-ϕ′sec is also evaluated and compared. Recommendations regarding the studied prediction tools for slope stability design in stiff-fissured clays are provided.

     

Determinability of NAPL mass by measuring concentrations downstream of a contaminant source

Organic contaminants in aquifers are often present as non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPL), which are long-lasting sources for groundwater contamination. The existing NAPL mass is an important parameter for the persistence of the source, but its determination is difficult. One possible detection method is based on the ideal multicomponent dissolution theory, using aqueous concentrations downstream of a fully mixed NAPL source to calculate its mass. In this publication, the applicability of this method is tested for a source size of about 5 m, using numerical methods. In contrast to fully mixed source zones, on this scale the NAPL sources are not in contact with each other, do not mix and develop independently over time. Highly soluble NAPL components can be depleted or the NAPL phase can be completely exhausted locally, while in other portions of the source zone NAPL is still present with all its components. Hence, the interpretation of the resulting aqueous concentrations downstream using the ideal dissolution theory leads to erroneous NAPL masses of several orders of magnitude in the investigated scenarios.     

Modelling mixing and circulation in subglacial Lake Vostok,Antarctica

Lake Vostok, isolated from direct exchange with the atmosphere by about 4 km of ice for millions of years, provides a unique environment. This inaccessibility raises the importance of numerical models to investigate the physical conditions within the lake. Using a three-dimensional numerical model and the best available geometry, we test different parameter settings to define a standard model configuration suitable for studying flow in this subglacial lake. From our model runs we find a baroclinic circulation within the lake that splits into three different parts: Along a topographic ridge in the northern part of Lake Vostok, bottom water masses are transported eastward, diverging away from the ridge. In the lake’s surface layer, the flow in these two vertical overturning cells has opposite directions. In the southern part of the lake, where freezing occurs across about 3,500 km², two opposing gyres split the water column vertically. The general flow is stronger in the southern basin with horizontal velocities in the order of 1 mm/s. The strongest upwelling, found in the eastern part of this basin, is about 25 μm/s. We estimate the lower limit of the overturning timescale to be about 2.5 years vertically and 8.6 years horizontally. The basal mass loss of ice from the ice sheet floating on the lake is 5.6 mm/year (equivalent to a fresh water flux of 2.78 m³/s, or a basal ice loss of 0.09 km³/year). This imbalance indicates either a constant growth of the lake or its continuous (or periodical) discharge into a subglacial drainage system.     

Remote sensing of thunderstorm activity by means of VLF sferics

The results of a three-month observational period (June–August 1981) during sunlit hours (9:00–15:00 GMT) with VLF sferics at the two stations Tel Aviv, Israel, and Pretoria, South Africa, are presented and compared with rainfall data for the European-African area, with two lability indices of thunderstorm prediction, and with synoptic thunderstorm reports for the same time interval. The locations of thunderstorm centers on the continents determined from the sferics stations compare reasonably well with the distribution of rainfall, indicating that the VLF sferics method is a useful measure of rainfall, particularly in remote regions with inadequate coverage of observing stations. The lability index of Showalter (1953) appears to be rather qualitative for the prediction of thunderstorm occurrence, and any fine structure in the distribution of thunderstorm centers as seen in the sferics data is lost. The same is true of the synoptic reports of thunderstorm days. A new lability index has been developed. This index leads to a more detailed structure of thunderstorm prediction, which is consistent with the sferics data.     

The 1999 eruption of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska: monitoring a distant eruption

Shishaldin Volcano, in the central Aleutian volcanic arc, became seismically restless during the summer of 1998. Increasing unrest was monitored using a newly installed seismic network, weather satellites, and rare local visual observations. The unrest culminated in large eruptions on 19 April and 22-23 April 1999. The opening phase of the 19 April eruption produced a sub-Plinian column that rose to 16 km before rapidly dissipating. About 80 min into the 19 April event we infer that the eruption style transitioned to vigorous Strombolian fountaining. Exceptionally vigorous seismic tremor heralded the 23 April eruption, which produced a large thermal anomaly observable by satellite, but only a modest, 6-km-high plume. There are no ground-based visual observations of this eruption; however we infer that there was renewed, vigorous Strombolian fountaining. Smaller low-level ash-rich plumes were produced through the end of May 1999. The lava that erupted was evolved basalt with about 49% SiO₂. Subsequent field investigations have been unable to find a distinction between deposits from each of the two major eruptive episodes.     

Structures of Mesocirculations Producing Tornadoes Associated with Tropical Cyclone Frances (1998)

Radar structures of one mesocyclone and one mesocirculation (the term mesocirculation refers to a class of rotating updrafts, which may or may not be as spatially and temporally large as a typical mesocyclone) that developed a total of four tornadoes in association with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Frances 1998 are presented. One tornado developed within an inner rainband near the time of landfall while three of the other tornadoes developed within an outer rainband nearly 24 hours after the landfall. Radar reflectivities of the tornadic circulations averaged upwards of 40 dBZ while Doppler radar wind components directed toward the radar averaged 11 m s−1. It is realized that although TC Frances was a minimal hurricane it spawned several tornadoes (four of which were studied) causing damage exceeding $2 million. These tornadoes were not all located close to the TC center, serving as a caution to forecasters and emergency personnel that the immediate landfalling area is not the only place to watch.While it is difficult to accurately predict the TC tornado location and time of occurrence, the degree of low-level baroclinicity seems to play an important role in tornadogenesis. Another significant finding is that the tornadoes were produced on the inward side of an inner rainband, as well as the inward side of an outer rainband. Consistent with climatology, the forward right quadrant of the TC developed the four tornadoes studied here.The lead author, Professor G. V. Rao died 31 July 2004 at the age of 70. He fell victime to the waves while swimming in Mazatlan, Mexico. This is the last paper he publilshed as lead author.     

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO₂ equivalent using 100-year CH₄ global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH₄ GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH₄ even though CH₄ was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.     

Paleogeography of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) and the Swiss Molasse Basin (SMB) from Eocene to Pliocene

Twenty paleogeographic maps are presented for Middle Eocene (Lutetian) to Late Pliocene times according to the stratigraphical data given in the companion paper by Berger et al. this volume. Following a first lacustrine-continental sedimentation during the Middle Eocene, two and locally three Rupelian transgressive events were identified with the first corresponding with the Early Rupelian Middle Pechelbronn beds and the second and third with the Late Rupelian Serie Grise (Fischschiefer and equivalents). During the Early Rupelian (Middle Pechelbronn beds), a connection between North Sea and URG is clearly demonstrated, but a general connection between North Sea, URG and Paratethys, via the Alpine sea, is proposed, but not proved, during the late Rupelian. Whereas in the southern URG, a major hiatus spans Early Aquitanian to Pliocene times, Early and Middle Miocene marine, brackish and freshwater facies occur in the northern URG and in the Molasse Basin (OMM, OSM); however, no marine connections between these basins could be demonstrated during this time. After the deposition of the molasse series, a very complex drainage pattern developed during the Late Miocene and Pliocene, with a clear connection to the Bresse Graben during the Piacenzian (Sundgau gravels). During the Late Miocene, Pliocene and Quaternary sedimentation persisted in the northern URG with hardly any interruptions. The present drainage pattern of the Rhine river (from Alpine area to the lower Rhine Embayment) was not established before the Early Pleistocene.