Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets

So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO₂ and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ (EQW) is intended to fill this gap, building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by ‘walking along equal quantile paths’ of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO₂ and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO₂ concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore, the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 ^∘C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%, it seems necessary to peak CO₂ equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, for the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See for EQW-software and data.     

Comparison of neutron and X-ray diffraction in texture analysis of deformed carbonate rocks

The paper compares pole figure determinations with neutron diffraction and X-ray diffraction on experimentally deformed carbonate rocks, a coarse grained marble and fine grained limestone. Neutron diffraction enables determination of complete pole figures on a single spherical specimen and is advantageous for coarse grained materials. Results obtained with both diffraction techniques agree satisfactorily, although uncertainties introduced by counting statistics are more serious for neutrons than for X-rays. Continuous detectors add new possibilities which are still little explored.     

Long‐Term Impacts on Groundwater and Reductive Dechlorination Following Bioremediation in a Highly Characterized Trichloroethene DNAPL Source Area

High‐resolution soil and groundwater monitoring was performed to assess the long‐term impacts of bioremediation using bioaugmentation with a dechlorinating microbial consortium (and sodium lactate as the electron donor) in a well‐characterized trichloroethene (TCE) dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source area. Monitoring was performed up to 3.7 years following active bioremediation using a high‐density monitoring network that included several discrete interval multi‐level sampling wells. Results showed that despite the absence of lactate, lactate fermentation transformation products, or hydrogen, biogeochemical conditions remained favorable for the reductive dechlorination of chlorinated ethenes. In locations where soil data showed that TCE DNAPL sources persisted, local contaminant rebound was observed in groundwater, whereas no rebound or continuous decreases in chlorinated ethenes were observed in locations where DNAPL sources were treated. While ethene levels measured 3.7 years after active treatment suggested relatively low (2 to 30%) dechlorination of the parent TCE and daughter products, carbon stable isotope analysis showed that the extent of complete dechlorination was much greater than indicated by ethene generation and that the estimated first‐order rate constant describing the complete dechlorination of TCE at 3.7 years following active bioremediation was approximately 3.6 y–1. Overall, results of this study suggest that biological processes may persist to treat TCE for years after cessation of active bioremediation, thereby serving as an important component of remedial treatment design and long‐term attenuation.     

Environmental Geology

The mining environment, medical geology and urban geochemistry form a group of related scientific disciplines that have developed strongly during recent years in the Nordic countries. Modern legislation controls the environmental issues. Close co-operation of researchers and legislators has improved the quality and safety of life in the societies of the Nordic countries. In mining environmental studies, methods that are suitable in Arctic conditions have been developed; in medical geology, the input from the Nordic countries has made it an appreciated scientific discipline throughout the world, and in the case of the urban environment, methods developed by our geochemists have especially improved the health conditions, particularly of children.     

The computation of the free barotropic oscillations of a global ocean model including friction and loading effects

A set of 61 normal modes with periods between 7.8 and 133.1 h has been calculated, using a 1° model of the global ocean, including the Arctic Ocean. The model explicitly considers frictional forces and ocean self-attraction and loading effects. The latter effects have generally been taken into account by parameterization, but for some modes the effects have also been considered fully. Due to friction, the computed eigenfrequencies are complex, exhibiting also the varying dissipative properties of the modes and their dependence on the distribution of potential and kinetic energies over the oceanic regions. In detail, gravity modes having periods less then 80 h and dominating the semi-diurnal and the diurnal tides, topographically controlled vorticity modes with periods longer than diurnal, and two planetary vorticity modes with periods of 96.8 and 119.4 h have been identified. These planetary vorticity modes have their energies distributed over Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, while the other modes with periods longer than 80 h, as vorticity modes, have their energies concentrated on topographic structures of restricted extension. The modes are discussed with respect to their wave properties, e.g., concerning quasi-standing-wave resonances and to the appearance of Kelvin waves of different orders and trapped by different coastlines. In particular, the relevance of specific modes for the development of the fields of the most important semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal constituents is investigated.     

Thermal–mechanical modeling of cooling history and fracture development in inflationary basalt lava flows

Thermal–mechanical analyses of isotherms in low-volume basalt flows having a range of aspect ratios agree with inferred isotherm patterns deduced from cooling fracture patterns in field examples on the eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho, and highlight the caveats of analytical models of sheet flow cooling when considering low-volume flows. Our field observations show that low-volume lava flows have low aspect ratios (width divided by thickness), typically < 5. Four fracture types typically develop: column-bounding, column-normal, entablature (all of which are cooling fractures), and inflation fractures. Cooling fractures provide a proxy for isotherms during cooling and produce patterns that are strongly influenced by flow aspect ratio. Inflation fractures are induced by lava pressure-driven inflationary events and introduce a thermal perturbation to the flow interior that is clearly evidenced by fracture patterns around them. Inflation fracture growth occurs incrementally due to blunting of the lower tip within viscoelastic basalt, allowing the inflation fracture to pivot open. The final stage of growth involves propagation beyond the blunted tip towards the stress concentration at the tapered tip of a lava core, resulting in penetration of the core that causes quenching of the lava and the formation of a densely fractured entablature. We present numerical models that include the effects of inflation fractures on lava cooling and which support field-based inferences that inflation fractures depress the isotherms in the vicinity of the fracture, cause a subdivision of the lava core, control the location of the final portion of the lava flow to solidify, and cause significant changes in the local cooling fracture orientations. In addition to perturbing isotherms, inflation fractures cause a lava flow to completely solidify in a shorter amount of time than an identically shaped flow that does not contain an inflation fracture.     

Heavy metal contamination in coastal sediments and soils near the Brazilian Antarctic Station, King George Island

This paper investigates the natural and anthropogenic processes controlling sediment chemistry in Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctica, emphasizing the area affected by the Brazilian Antarctic Station Comandante Ferraz (Ferraz). Total and bioavailable concentrations of sixteen elements were determined in 32 sediment and 14 soils samples. Factor analysis allowed us to distinguish three groups of samples: (1) Ferraz sediments, with higher content of total trace metals and organic matter; (2) control sediments, with intermediate characteristics; (3) Ferraz soils, with higher bioavailability of most metals due to its oxidizing condition and low organic matter content. Major elements such as Fe, Al, Ca and Ti presented similar levels in all three groups. Enrichment factor calculations showed that paints, sewage and petroleum contamination enhanced metal concentrations in Ferraz surface sediments as follows: B, Mo, and Pb (>90%); V and Zn (70-80%); Ni, Cu, Mg, and Mn (30-40%). Despite evidence of contamination in these sediments, the low bioavailability, probably caused by iron-sulfide, indicates small environmental risks.     

Provenance of the late Proterozoic to early Cambrian metaclastic sediments of the Sierra de San Luis (Eastern Sierras Pampeanas) and Cordillera Oriental, Argentina

Provenance studies have been performed utilising major and trace elements, Nd systematics, whole rock Pb–Pb isotopes and zircon U/Pb SHRIMP data on metasedimentary rocks of the Sierra de San Luis (Nogolí Metamorphic Complex, Pringles Metamorphic Complex, Conlara Metamorphic Complex and San Luis Formation) and the Puncoviscana Formation of the Cordillera Oriental. The goal was the characterisation of the different domains in the study area and to give insights to the location of the source rocks. An active continental margin setting with typical composition of the upper continental crust is depicted for all the complexes using major and trace elements. The Pringles Metamorphic Complex shows indications for crustal recycling, pointing to a bimodal provenance. Major volcanic input has to be rejected due to Th/Sc, Y/Ni and Cr/V ratios for all units. The εNd_{(540 Ma)} data is lower for the San Luis Formation and higher for the Conlara Metamorphic Complex, as compared to the other units, in which a good consistency is given. This is similar to the T_DM ages, where the metapsammitic samples of the San Luis Formation are slightly older. The spread of data is largest for the Pringles Metamorphic Complex, again implying two different sources. The whole rock ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb isotopic data lies in between the South American and African sources, excluding Laurentian provenances. The whole rock Pb–Pb data is almost indistinguishable in the different investigated domains. Only the PMC shows slightly elevated ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb values. Possible source rocks for the different domains could be the Quebrada Choja in the Central Arequipa–Antofalla domain, the Southern domain of the Arequipa–Antofalla basement, the Brazilian shield or southern Africa. Zircon SHRIMP data point to a connection between the Puncoviscana Formation and the Conlara Metamorphic Complex. Two maxima around 600 Ma and around 1000 Ma have been determined. The Nogolí Metamorphic Complex and the Pringles Metamorphic Complex show one peak of detrital zircons around 550 Ma, and only a few grains are older than 700 Ma. The detrital zircon ages for the San Luis Formation show age ranges between 590 and 550 Ma. A common basin can be assumed for the Conlara Metamorphic Complex and the Puncoviscana Formation, but the available data support different sources for the rest of the Complexes of the Sierra de San Luis. These share the diminished importance or the lack of the Grenvillian detrital peak, a common feature for the late Cambrian–early Ordovician basins of the Eastern Sierras Pampeanas, in contrast to the Sierras de Córdoba, the PVF and the Conlara Metamorphic Complex.     

Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways

In this paper, we discuss the results of 2000?C2100 simulations following the emissions associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with a chemistry-climate model, focusing on the changes in 1) atmospheric composition (troposphere and stratosphere) and 2) associated environmental parameters (such as nitrogen deposition). In particular, we find that tropospheric ozone is projected to decrease (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6) or increase (RCP8.5) between 2000 and 2100, with variations in methane a strong contributor to this spread. The associated tropospheric ozone global radiative forcing is shown to be in agreement with the estimate used in the RCPs, except for RCP8.5. Surface ozone in 2100 is projected to change little compared from its 2000 distribution, a much-reduced impact from previous projections based on the A2 high-emission scenario. In addition, globally-averaged stratospheric ozone is projected to recover at or beyond pre-1980 levels. Anthropogenic aerosols are projected to strongly decrease in the 21st century, a reflection of their projected decrease in emissions. Consequently, sulfate deposition is projected to strongly decrease. However, nitrogen deposition is projected to increase over certain regions because of the projected increase in NH₃ emissions.     

Sediment geochemistry in coastal maritime Antarctica (Admiralty Bay, King George Island): Evidence from rare earths and other elements

We report the concentrations of 22 elements in short coastal sediment cores of Admiralty Bay (King George Island, Antarctica) determined by Neutron Activation Analysis. We focus the discussion on rare earth elements (REE) because their fractionation patterns in sediments relative to local sources may offer insights about weathering, transportation, deposition, and diagenetic processes. We found strong correlations between REE and Th, indicating detrital origin. Despite strong Eh gradients, the Th-normalized redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Eu, Ce, Fe, As, and others) showed little variability within the sedimentary environment. The exceptions were U (depleted in the upper few centimeters) and Br (enriched in the upper few centimeters). While U appears to be removed from seawater via uptake across the boundary of reducing sediments, the mechanisms driving Br accumulation are unclear, but perhaps related to increasing diatom production driven by regional warming. A comparison with published concentrations from rocks representing the regional eroding units showed that the characteristics of source rock could be recognized in the REE fractionation patterns in our sediments. These results imply no significant alteration during weathering and sediment transport in the coastal region of Admiralty Bay and the prevalence of strong periglacial erosion in ice-free areas of maritime Antarctica in spite of the relatively mild regional environmental setting (e.g., high moisture and high temperatures).