The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750?C2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005?C2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected ??best-estimate?? global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO₂ emissions), leading to CO₂ concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21^st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs.     

Recent trends of temperature change under hot and cold desert climates: Comparing the Sahara (Libya) and Central Asia (Xinjiang, China)

According to trend computations at three stations each in Sahara desert (Libya), characterized by a “hot” desert type (“BWh”, according to the Koeppen climate classification), and in Central Asia (Xinjiang, China) identified as a “cold” desert type (“BWk”, after Koeppen), increasing annual temperatures were detected over the period 1955-2005 corresponding with global temperature warming. From 1955-1978, negative (decreasing) temperature trends were, however, observed at all three hot desert stations and at two of the three cold desert stations. From 1979-2005, strikingly positive temperature trends were seen at all six stations. In seasonal respects, winter (December to February) and summer (June to August) show different temperature trends over the period 1955-2005: the hot desert experienced an increasing temperature trend at a greater extent in summer than in winter; vice-versa, in the cold desert positive trends were computed for winter and negative for summer. It can also be observed that mostly hot desert warming occurred in summer, opposite to cold desert warming in winter.     

中国黄海西岸海陆风循环结构研究

陆海风是由于海陆表面之间的比热容不同而导致的昼夜热量分布差异,从而在海岸附近引发的大气中尺度循环系统.本文利用多普勒风激光雷达Windcube100s首次对黄海西海岸的海陆风的循环结构进行了观测研究.在2018年8月31日至9月28日观测期间发现,海陆风发展高度一般在700 m至1300 m.海陆风转化持续的时间为6小时至8小时.在425m高度,海风水平风速出现最大值,平均为5.6 m s-1.陆风最大水平风速出现在370m,约为4.5 m s-1.最大风切变指数在1300m处,为2.84;在陆风向海风转换过程中,最大风切变指数在700m处,为1.28.在同一高度上,风切变指数在海风盛行和陆风盛行时的差值范围为0.2-3.6,风切变能反映出海陆风的发展高度.     

Dynamics of an outburst flood originating from a small and high-altitude glacier in the Arid Andes of Chile

The rise of total water levels at the coast is caused primarily by three factors that encompass storm surges, tides and wind waves. The accuracy of total water elevation (TWE) forecast depends not only on the cyclonic track and its intensity, but also on the spatial distribution of winds which include its speed and direction. In the present study, the cyclonic winds are validated using buoy winds for the recent cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal since 2010 using Jelesnianski wind scheme. It is found that the cyclonic winds computed from the scheme show an underestimate in the magnitude and also a mismatch in its direction. Hence, the wind scheme is suitably modified based on the buoy observations available at different locations using a power law which reduces the exponential decay of winds by about 30%. Moreover, the cyclonic wind direction is also corrected by suitably modifying its inflow angle. The significance of modified exponential factor and inflow angle in the computation cyclonic winds is highlighted using statistical analysis. A hydrodynamic finite element-based Advanced Circulation 2D depth integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) model is used here to compute TWE as a response to combined effect of cyclonic winds and astronomical tides. As contribution of wave setup plays an important role near the coast, a coupled ADCIRC + SWAN is used to perceive the contribution of wind waves on the TWE. The experiments are performed to validate computed surge residuals with available tide gauge data. On comparison of observed surge residuals with the simulations using modified winds from the uncoupled and coupled models, it is found that the simulated surge residuals are better compared, especially with the inclusion of wave effect through the coupled model.     

Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: global and regional emission implications

Abstract

This article presents a set of multi-gas emission pathways for different CO₂-equivalent concentration stabilization levels, i.e. 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm CO₂-equivalent, along with an analysis of their global and regional reduction implications and implied probability of achieving the EU climate target of 2°C. For achieving the 2°C target with a probability of more than 60%, greenhouse gas concentrations need to be stabilized at 450 ppm CO₂-equivalent or below, if the 90% uncertainty range for climate sensitivity is believed to be 1.5–4.5°C. A stabilization at 450 ppm CO₂-equivalent or below (400 ppm) requires global emissions to peak around 2015, followed by substantial overall reductions of as much as 25% (45% for 400 ppm) compared to 1990 levels in 2050. In 2020, Annex I emissions need to be approximately 15% (30%) below 1990 levels, and non-Annex I emissions also need to be reduced by 15–20% compared to their baseline emissions. A further delay in peaking of global emissions by 10 years doubles maximum reduction rates to about 5% per year, and very probably leads to high costs. In order to keep the option open of stabilizing at 400 and 450 ppm CO₂-equivalent, the USA and major advanced non-Annex I countries will have to participate in the reductions within the next 10–15 years.     

Surface age of the ice–dust mantle deposit in Malea Planum,Mars

The mid- and high-latitudes of Mars are covered by a smooth young mantle that is interpreted as an atmospherically derived air-fall deposit of ice and dust related to recent climate changes. In order to determine relative and absolute ages of this surface unit within the southern hemisphere, a systematic survey of all available HiRISE and CTX images in the Malea Planum region from 55–60°S latitude and 50–70°E longitude was performed and the distribution and the morphology of small impact craters on the mantle deposit were investigated. Using crater size-frequency measurements, we derived absolute model ages of ～3–5 Ma for the surface of the mantle, immediately south of the Hellas basin rim. Morphologic observations of the mantle, its fresh appearance, very low number of craters, and superposition on older units support this very young Amazonian age. Nearly all observed craters on the smooth mantle in Malea Planum are small and show signs of erosion, evidence for the ongoing modification of the ice–dust mantle. However, this modification has not been strong enough to reset the surface age. Compared to the ice–dust mantle at higher latitudes in the northern and southern hemisphere, the surface of the mantle in Malea Planum is older and thus has been relatively stable during obliquity changes in the last ～3–5 Ma. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the ice–dust mantle is a complex surface deposit of different layers, that shows a strong latitude dependence in morphology and has been deposited and degraded at different times in martian history.     

Assessing uncertainty in the integration of aeromagnetic data and structural observations in the Deering Hills region of the Musgrave Province

Integrated aeromagnetic and field-based structural analysis provides a method for establishing a constrained regional-scale tectonic model where insufficient outcrop, remoteness or restricted access precludes widespread structural mapping. In this method the different scales of observation lead to uncertainty in integrating the observations. An integrated analysis of the Deering Hills region of the Musgrave Province shows that this uncertainty is largely dependent on the magnetic data resolution, the scale of deformation, and mineralogy. In the Deering Hills, four deformation events are defined, each with different structural character. These differences in character result in different levels of uncertainty in integrating these observations with aeromagnetic data. D1 was only evident at small scales in outcrop, and therefore any correlation with aeromagnetic data is inherently uncertain. However, well-defined relative timing to D2, and the parallel nature of an S1 foliation and regional D1 structures identified in the aeromagnetic data permitted the derivation of a moderately reliable regional model indicating northwest to southeast directed shortening at a deep crustal level during the Musgravian Orogeny. This resulted in a pervasive gneissic foliation, and a regional array of northeast-trending reverse-shear zones and tight to isoclinal upright folds. A higher confidence regional model was derived for the second deformation event (D2), which was identified at the regional scale in outcrop and could be directly correlated with features in the aeromagnetic data. North–south-directed crustal shortening, either in the late Musgravian Orogeny or during deformation ca 1060 Ma resulting in east-southeast- and southeast-trending reverse- and dextral-reverse shear zones and southeast-trending recumbent isoclinal nappes. For the third and fourth deformation events, links could not be made between field observations and aeromagnetic data, and the regional models for these events are low in confidence. The regional setting of D3 is not defined, and D4 is interpreted to represent the development of shear zones during north–south compression in the Petermann Orogeny.     

Modeling Dehalococcoides sp. Augmented Bioremediation in a Single Fracture System

A numerical reactive transport model was developed to simulate the bioremediation processes in a perchloroethene (PCE) contaminated single fracture system augmented with Dehalococcoides sp. (DHC). The model describes multispecies bioreactive transport processes that include bacterial growth and detachment dynamics, biodegradation of chlorinated species, competitive inhibition of various reactive species, and the loss of daughter products because of back‐partitioning effects. Two sets of experimental data, available in the study by Schaefer et al. (2010b) , were used to calibrate and test the model. The model was able to simulate both datasets. The simulation results indicated that the yield coefficient and the DHC maximum utilization rate coefficient were the two important process parameters. A detailed sensitivity study was completed to quantify the sensitivity of the model to variations in these two parameter values. The results show that an increase in yield coefficient increases bacterial growth and thus expedites the dechlorination process, whereas an increase in maximum utilization rate coefficient greatly increased dechlorination rates. The proposed model provides a mathematical framework for simulating remediation systems that employ DHC bioaugmentation for restoring chlorinated‐solvent contaminated groundwater aquifers.     

Fe(II) reduction of pyrolusite (β-MnO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) and secondary mineral evolution

Iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) are the two most common redox-active elements in the Earth’s crust and are well known to influence mineral formation and dissolution, trace metal sequestration, and contaminant transformations in soils and sediments. Here, we characterized the reaction of aqueous Fe(II) with pyrolusite (β-MnO₂) using electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, aqueous Fe and Mn analyses, and ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy. We reacted pyrolusite solids repeatedly with 3 mM Fe(II) at pH 7.5 to evaluate whether electron transfer occurs and to track the evolving reactivity of the Mn/Fe solids. We used Fe isotopes (56 and 57) in conjunction with ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy to isolate oxidation of Fe(II) by Fe(III) precipitates or pyrolusite. Using these complementary techniques, we determined that Fe(II) is initially oxidized by pyrolusite and that lepidocrocite is the dominant Fe oxidation product. Additional Fe(II) exposures result in an increasing proportion of magnetite on the pyrolusite surface. Over a series of nine 3 mM Fe(II) additions, Fe(II) continued to be oxidized by the Mn/Fe particles suggesting that Mn/Fe phases are not fully passivated and remain redox active even after extensive surface coverage by Fe(III) oxides. Interestingly, the initial Fe(III) oxide precipitates became further reduced as Fe(II) was added and additional Mn was released into solution suggesting that both the Fe oxide coating and underlying Mn phase continue to participate in redox reactions when freshly exposed to Fe(II). Our findings indicate that Fe and Mn chemistry is influenced by sustained reactions of Fe(II) with Mn/Fe oxides.

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