Potential groundwater recharge zones within New Zealand

Water resources in New Zealand are not evenly distributed across the country which makes it difficult to adequately allocate the use of water resources in every basin. Groundwater is a fundamental water resource in New Zealand for agricultural, industrial and domestic use. Detailed knowledge regarding groundwater recharge potential is a pre-requisite for sustainable groundwater management, including the assessment of its vulnerability to contamination by pollutants. In this study, a comprehensive GIS approach was used to map the potential groundwater recharge zones across New Zealand. National data sets of lithology, slope, aspect, land use, soil drainage and drainage density were converted to raster data sets with a spatial resolution of 500 m × 500 m and superimposed to derive groundwater potential zones. The resultant maps demonstrate that the potential is low in urban and mountainous areas, such as the Southern Alps, whereas the highest potential can be found in regions with large lakes and in the lower elevation plains areas, where Quaternary sediments prevail. The resulting maps can be used to identify areas of high nutrient leaching in zones where high groundwater recharge potential exists.     

Age and metasomatic alteration of the Mt Neill Granite at Nooldoonooldoona Waterhole,Mt Painter Inlier,South Australia

Quartz feldspar augen gneisses, quartz augen schists and trondhjemites outcrop at Nooldoonooldoona Waterhole in the southwestern corner of the Proterozoic Mt Painter Inlier, northern Flinders Ranges, South Australia. These rocks were previously interpreted as having different origins and ages. However, we argue that all rock types were the result of deformation and strong metasomatic alteration of one common precursor: the Mt Neill Granite. Our conclusion is based on field observations that show that the different lithologies grade into each other and that intrusive contacts are lacking. Whole rock major and trace element analyses also point to a common protolith. Finally, Pb/Pb dating of magmatic zircons gave the same ca 1576 Ma age for the different rock types. Our findings necessitate a re evaluation of the published regional geology and lithostratigraphy of the Mt Painter Inlier. They also indicate that extreme care should be taken in the classification and genetic interpretation of rocks that have experienced extensive metasomatic alteration, which is common in many high grade terrains in Australia.     

A thermodynamic model of high temperature lava vaporization on Io

We modified the MAGMA chemical equilibrium code developed by Fegley and Cameron (1987, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 82, 207-222) and used it to model vaporization of high temperature silicate lavas on Io. The MAGMA code computes chemical equilibria in a melt, between melt and its equilibrium vapor, and in the gas phase. The good agreement of MAGMA code results with experimental data and with other computer codes is demonstrated. The temperature-dependent pressure and composition of vapor in equilibrium with lava is calculated from 1700 to 2400 K for 109 different silicate lavas in the ONaKFeSiMgCaAlTi system. Results for five lavas (tholeiitic basalt, alkali basalt, Barberton komatiite, dunite, and a molten type B1 Ca, Al-rich inclusion) are discussed in detail. The effects of continuous fractional vaporization on chemistry of these lavas and their equilibrium vapor are presented. The predicted abundances (relative to Na) of K, Fe, Si, Al, Ca, and Ti in the vapor equilibrated with lavas at 1900 K are lower than published upper limits for Io's atmosphere (which do not include Mg). We predict evaporative loss of alkalis, Fe, and Si during volcanic eruptions. Sodium is more volatile than K, and the Na/K ratio in the gas is decreased by fractional vaporization. This process can match Io's atmospheric Na/K ratio of 10±3 reported by Brown (2001, Icarus 151, 190-195). Silicon monoxide is an abundant species in the vapor above lavas. Spectroscopic searches are recommended for SiO at IR and mm wavelengths. Reactions of metallic vapors with S- and Cl-bearing volcanic gases may form other unusual gases including MgCl₂, MgS, MgCl, FeCl₂, FeS, FeCl, and SiS.     

How Much Warming are We Committed to and How Much can be Avoided?

This paper examines different concepts of a ‘warming commitment’ which is often used in various ways to describe or imply that a certain level of warming is irrevocably committed to over time frames such as the next 50 to 100 years, or longer. We review and quantify four different concepts, namely (1) a ‘constant emission warming commitment’, (2) a ‘present forcing warming commitment’, (3) a‘zero emission (geophysical) warming commitment’ and (4) a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’. While a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’ is probably the most relevant one for policy making, it depends centrally on key assumptions as to the technical, economic and political feasibility of future greenhouse gas emission reductions. This issue is of direct policy relevance when one considers that the 2002 global mean temperatures were 0.8± 0.2 ^°C above the pre-industrial (1861–1890) mean and the European Union has a stated goal of limiting warming to 2 ^°C above the pre-industrial mean: What is the risk that we are committed to overshoot 2 ^°C? Using a simple climate model (MAGICC) for probabilistic computations based on the conventional IPCC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (1.5 to 4.5 ^°C), we found that (1) a constant emission scenario is virtually certain to overshoot 2 ^°C with a central estimate of 2.0 ^°C by 2100 (4.2 ^°C by 2400). (2) For the present radiative forcing levels it seems unlikely that 2 ^°C are overshoot. (central warming estimate 1.1 ^°C by 2100 and 1.2 ^°C by 2400 with ～10% probability of overshooting 2 ^°C). However, the risk of overshooting is increasing rapidly if radiative forcing is stabilized much above 400 ppm CO₂ equivalence (1.95 W/m²) in the long-term. (3) From a geophysical point of view, if all human-induced emissions were ceased tomorrow, it seems ‘exceptionally unlikely’ that 2 ^°C will be overshoot (central estimate: 0.7 ^°C by 2100; 0.4 ^°C by 2400). (4) Assuming future emissions according to the lower end of published mitigation scenarios (350 ppm CO₂eq to 450 ppm CO₂eq) provides the central temperature projections are 1.5 to 2.1 ^°C by 2100 (1.5 to 2.0 ^°C by 2400) with a risk of overshooting 2 ^°C between 10 and 50% by 2100 and 1–32% in equilibrium. Furthermore, we quantify the ‘avoidable warming’ to be 0.16–0.26 ^°C for every 100 GtC of avoided CO₂ emissions – based on a range of published mitigation scenarios.     

Application of an equilibrium vaporization model to the ablation of chondritic and achondritic meteoroids

We modeled equilibrium vaporization of chondritic and achondritic materials using the MAGMA code. We calculated both instantaneous and integrated element abundances of Na, Mg, Ca, Al, Fe, Si, Ti, and K in chondritic and achondritic meteors. Our results are qualitatively consistent with observations of meteor spectra.     

Precursory seismic quiescence in the Mudurnu Valley, North Anatolian fault zone, Turkey

The seismicity rate in the Mudurnu Valley of Turkey was studied using an earthquake catalogue that reports events homogeneously down to magnitude 2.3 for the years 1985–1989, and covers the area between latitudes 40.2° and 41.0°N, and longitudes 30.0° and 31.5°E. During this period the only two main shocks, M = 4.0 and M = 4.3, occurred on 1988 September 6 and 1988 December 9 within about 30km of each other. A highly significant seismic quiescence is evident in the area surrounding these main shocks, while the seismicity rate in the rest of the area covered by the catalogue remains constant. the quiescence becomes more pronounced the smaller the area around the main shocks that is studied. the smallest areas that can be studied contain about 60 earthquakes and have dimensions of approximately 25km on each side. the decreases in seismicity rates are 50–80 per cent depending on the volume and period used for defining the quiescence. the quiescence started in 1988 January and lasted about seven months, with approximately 4.5 months of normal activity separating it from the main shock of December. the precursor time of 12 months for an M = 4.3 main shock is similar to those observed in California. It is concluded that it is possible to resolve precursory quiescence before moderate and large earthquakes in the Mudurnu area with the existing seismograph network.     

1600–1500 Ma hotspot track in eastern Australia: implications for Mesoproterozoic continental reconstructions

Mesoproterozoic A‐type magmatic rocks in the Gawler Craton, Curnamona Province and eastern Mount Isa Inlier, form a palaeo‐curvilinear belt for reconstructed plate orientations. The oldest igneous rocks in the Gawler Craton are the Hiltaba Granite Suite: c. 1600–1575 Ma. The youngest in the Mount Isa Inlier are the Williams‐Naraku Batholiths: c. 1545–1500 Ma. The belt is interpreted as a segment of a hotspot track that evolved between c. 1600 and 1500 Ma. This hotspot track may define a quasilinear part of Australia’s motion between 1636 and 1500 Ma, and suggests that Australia drifted to high latitudes. An implication of this interpretation is that Australia and Laurentia may not have been fellow travellers leading to the formation of Rodinia. A hotspot model for A‐type magmatism in Australia differs from geodynamic models for this style of magmatism on other continents. This suggests that multiple geologic processes may be responsible for the genesis of Proterozoic A‐type magmas.     

Statistical Insights Regarding Fully Softened Shear Strength

The fully softened shear strength (FSS) concept is a practical approximation of the mobilized drained shear strength of first-time slides in stiff-fissured clays. There has been a recent increase in interest in measurement and estimation of FSS secant friction angle (FSS-ϕ′sec) to develop correlations for preliminary design and cost approximation. However, such correlations do not help in understanding the cause and effect relationship between soil properties and FSS-ϕ′sec. In this study, a laboratory database containing FSS-ϕ′sec values (output) and soil properties (inputs) of several overconsolidated clays is used to develop a predictive model for FSS-ϕ′sec (output or response). The goal is to detect which inputs from the whole parameter space dominate the response while creating an accurate prediction tool to provide statistical insights regarding the FSS-ϕ′sec. The proposed methodology is used to assess and quantify the relationships among variables, estimate testing device effects on FSS-ϕ′sec, and analyze the danger of extrapolation due to model constraints. The applicability of the predicted FSS-ϕ′sec is also evaluated and compared. Recommendations regarding the studied prediction tools for slope stability design in stiff-fissured clays are provided.